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Digby’s AFL Round 1 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

RICHMOND v CARLTON

Thursday, MCG, 4.20pm

Richmond launch their season knowing a pass mark for 2016 requires a finals victory. Three successive elimination final defeats haunt the Tigers and while a win here won’t mean anything in the grand scheme of things, it will give coach Damien Hardwick and his players the perfect start. And given where these two clubs are at, that is exactly what should occur.

Carlton are adjusting to life under new coach Brendon Bolton and boast several new faces. No.1 draft pick Jacob Weitering has done everything asked of him in his first pre-season and will play, while the addition of former Adelaide utility player Sam Kerridge has proven a wise decision if the NAB Challenge is any guide. But so much will rest on the likes of captain Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Patrick Cripps and Kade Simpson, along with a revitalised Matthew Kreuzer.

However, their support cast is nowhere near as plentiful as those backing up Richmond’s proven performers Trent Cotchin, Brandon Ellis, Dustin Martin, Anthony Miles and Jack Riewoldt. The unavailability of Brett Deledio, Shaun Grigg and Ivan Maric doesn’t help, but Richmond still have enough arsenal to hit the ground running.

VERDICT: Richmond by 43 points.

MELBOURNE v GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY

Saturday, MCG, 10.40am

Melbourne would have fancied their chances in this round-one encounter following the completion of a very encouraging NAB Challenge campaign. Then came the four-match suspension handed down to Giants key forward Jeremy Cameron. Granted, GWS still have sufficient marking targets forward of centre, not to mention the wise head of veteran recruit Steve Johnson, but none are anywhere near the level or capable of wielding the same influence as Cameron.

And at the other end of the ground, the Demons are entitled to be very comfortable they boast hulking youngster Jesse Hogan. A contested marking beast, Hogan is bigger and stronger again after another pre-season and has the capacity to kick more than 50 goals this season. If the Demons can move the ball with the same fluency as they did throughout the pre-season, their spearhead will have the opportunity to shape the outcome.

The Giants took a hit at the end of last season when Adam Treloar left for Collingwood, but they still boast quality on-ballers in Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel, Josh Kelly and Ryan Griffen. It would be a major shock if Demons coach Paul Roos doesn’t look to negate at least one, possibly even two, of them. If he is successful, Melbourne are up to their eyeballs in this contest.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 13 points.

GOLD COAST v ESSENDON

Saturday, Metricon Stadium, 1.35pm

Not a great deal went right for Gold Coast in Rodney Eade’s first year at the helm and he will again start this year without key midfielders David Swallow and Jaeger O’Meara because of knee injuries. But the availability of captain Gary Ablett and ball magnet Dion Prestia, coupled with a solid summer and reasonably healthy list, provides those associated with the club believing that a brighter 2016 is on the horizon.

Sadly, the same cannot be said for Essendon. The suspension of 12 players because of doping infractions leaves new coach John Worsfold with a monumental task of fielding a competitive unit each and every week. Some of the top-up players, notably Mathew Stokes and James Kelly, have shown a bit, but the exposure of youngsters and other players on the list who normally would ply their trade in the VFL until they became AFL-ready is inevitable.

The Suns will again lean heavily on Ablett and while he will miss Swallow and O’Meara, there is no denying the influence he is capable of having. If he hits the ground running and sparks Gold Coast early, the Bombers will find it hard to stay on level terms and kick a winning total, even taking into consideration that Joe Daniher might be ready to have a breakout year.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 34 points.

NORTH MELBOURNE v ADELAIDE

Saturday, Etihad Stadium, 4.25pm

Much has been made of North Melbourne’s inability to win round-one games under Brad Scott — externally and internally. The Kangaroos have introduced considerably more match simulation into their training post-Christmas with a view to being ready to roll from the opening bounce against Adelaide. Knowing they were humbled by the Crows in round one last season at Adelaide Oval, only heightens their awareness.

The Crows have enjoyed a solid summer also under new coach Don Pyke, who has stressed the need to move the ball quickly to ensure his star-studded forward line of Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch and Eddie Betts have ample opportunities to apply scoreboard pressure. Seemingly the biggest issue for Pyke is finding a way to generate sufficient football midfield to achieve that given the departure of champion Patrick Dangerfield to Geelong.

The Kangaroos will like their chances of stretching the Crows’ back half with Jarrad Waite, Drew Petrie and Ben Brown, especially if All-Australian Todd Goldstein can win his all-important ruck battle with Sam Jacobs. Daniel Wells has negotiated the pre-season and gets to slot into a deep midfield boasting the likes of Ben Cunnington, Jack Ziebell, Andrew Swallow, Brent Harvey, Nick Dal Santo and Ben Jacobs. If North are to secure the top-four berth they have designs on, they need to win matches like this.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 18 points.

SYDNEY v COLLINGWOOD

Saturday, SCG, 4.25pm

Any contest between Sydney and Collingwood is always going to attract its share of neutral observers. The fact that this contest has been transferred back to the SCG, takes pride of place in a terrific round one and features the return of Lance Franklin only adds to the appeal. Franklin has trained strongly over the summer and looks lean and keen in his bid to overcome the mental health issues which ruled him out of last year’s finals series.

Collingwood won all three NAB Challenge games, with their improved depth through the midfield a key factor. High-profile recruit Adam Treloar received a knock at training late last week and didn’t complete a session on Monday, but the club insists he will be good to go. His addition to the on-ball department, alongside Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom, Jack Crisp and Jordan De Goey enables Dane Swan to patrol the forward line where his experience will complement Travis Cloke, Darcy Moore and Alex Fasolo.

The Swans will be without Jarrad McVeigh and Sam Reid because of injury, but still have quality on all lines and will unveil teenage sensation Callum Mills, who looks destined for a bright career at the club, much like last year’s revelation Isaac Heeney. Collingwood have enjoyed a good record in Sydney against the Swans, but many of those wins have come out at ANZ Stadium, not the SCG. The presence of a fit and fresh Franklin only complicates matters for Collingwood.

VERDICT: Sydney by 23 points.

WESTERN BULLDOGS v FREMANTLE

Sunday, Etihad Stadium, 10.10am

In a perfect world Fremantle would launch their 2016 season with both Aaron Sandilands and Harley Bennell. However, the pair who comfortably sit in the Dockers’ best six players will be missing through suspension and injury respectively, opening the door for the Bulldogs given their dramatic surge 12 months ago. But the Bulldogs have their own issues, notably no Will Minson and setting up a forward structure minus Stewart Crameri for his role with Essendon’s supplements saga.

What we do know is Ross Lyon-coached sides are rarely unprepared at the start of a home-and-away campaign and the Bulldogs will feel the force of the port club. Fremantle have made it clear they want to slow down the Bulldogs, who themselves are desperate to operate at a high tempo with rapid ball movement. Such a ploy suits the likes of Jake Stringer, fresh off his breakout campaign, and Tory Dickson, who has had an interrupted pre-season.

Fremantle have made plenty of noise about kicking more goals once again, but their NAB Challenge campaign didn’t produce extra scoreboard pressure. Matt Taberner is still finding his way, Matthew Pavlich shouldn’t have to be the focal point in attack at his age, but remains just that, while the unavailability of Bennell robs them of silk. But the presence of Hayden Ballantyne and Michael Walters cannot be denied, nor the Dockers midfield, headed by Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe, David Mundy, Lachie Neale and Stephen Hill.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 9 points.

PORT ADELAIDE v ST KILDA

Sunday, Adelaide Oval, 12.20pm

Port Adelaide’s bid for redemption starts now. The Power were horrid last season when it mattered most and though their cause was not aided by injuries to key personnel, a repeat performance in 2016 will lead to a serious review of the club’s football operations. Fortunately for coach Ken Hinkley, his staff and his players, they have the opportunity for a soft kill on Sunday.

St Kilda made some inroads early last year before hitting the wall, but still seem very reliant on their mature players, notably captain Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna, David Armitage and Sean Dempster. The Saints have some good quality kids and how quickly they come to hand with the requirements of the elite level is likely to determine their side’s immediate future.

The Power will be without Paddy Ryder and Angus Monfries in 2016, making the addition of former Gold Coast forward Charlie Dixon all the more important. Dixon has a presence few key forwards possess and if the ball movement of his teammates further afield is at the level we know it can be, the first-year Power spearhead has the capacity to figure in Coleman Medal calculations. He could well start off with a bang here.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 56 points.

WEST COAST v BRISBANE

Sunday, Domain Stadium, 4.40pm

This always looked like a match that set up perfectly for West Coast to build on their 2015 campaign and taste that winning feeling again following the disappointment of last year’s grand final. Despite some key injuries, chiefly to midfield options Chris Masten, Sharrod Wellingham and Dom Sheed, and the prospect of inclement weather, the Eagles should be expecting to win and win well.

Brisbane haven’t had the best of pre-seasons because of injuries to Dayne Beams, Tom Rockliff and Allen Christensen and head west with genuine question marks surrounding their attacking. Josh Schache is going to be a ripper, but it is a big ask to expect the teenager, a key-position forward at that, to boot a bag against a highly organised Eagles defence bolstered by the return of 2014 club champion Eric Mackenzie.

At the other end of the ground, West Coast boast serious goal-kicking options in Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling, Mark LeCras, Josh Hill and Jamie Cripps. If the supply is plentiful as you expect it would be, West Coast can boot a total that Brisbane might even struggle to match in two games, event taking into account a rain-affected surface.

VERDICT: West Coast by 65 points.

GEELONG v HAWTHORN

Monday, MCG, 12.20pm

It wasn’t long ago that Hawthorn were incapable of beating Geelong. Kennett Curse or not, the Hawks could not get over the line. Now, they cannot stop beating the Cats, with the corresponding match last year one of the most brutal performances dished up a team that has made a habit of dismantling its opposition.

The Hawks will be without key trio Jarryd Roughead (knee), Liam Shiels (wrist) and Bradley Hill (wrist), along with departed trio Brian Lake (retired), David Hale (retired) and Matt Suckling (Western Bulldogs) in this Easter Monday showdown, but welcome back Jordan Lewis and Grant Birchall to the side that flogged North Melbourne in round four of the NAB Challenge. The Cats will also be strengthened by the availability of captain Joel Selwood from a foot injury that disrupted his pre-season, enabling him to team up with Patrick Dangerfield for the first time.

No Mitch Clark and Nakia Cockatoo impacts Geelong’s forward line, with much to rest on the broad shoulders of Tom Hawkins. Josh Gibson will do whatever he can to intercept in customary fashion, but the job Lake was entrusted to do — negate the game’s best power fowards — rests with someone else now. As for the Hawks, they cannot stop kicking goals and though there is no Roughead, it would be foolish to think Luke Breust, Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo don’t contribute sufficient goals to have Hawthorn in the frame here.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 24 points.

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