David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Round 17

Posted on July 2, 2026July 2, 2026 | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Geelong v Brisbane, GMHBA, 5.30pm

Geelong return here off a week’s freshen up with the Bye and were last seen when beaten by the Dockers by 9 points at Optus Stadium on June 18. They are in 4^th spot on the table with a 9 win, 6 loss record.

The back to back Premiers Brisbane are starting to get some momentum in to their game with wins at their last 3 including an impressive 43 point victory over Sydney last week.

Geelong will welcome back Bailey Smith and Tom Stewart while Brisbane go in unchanged.

These two sides met in round 10 at the GABBA where the Cats were commanding winners by 41 points in a match where Shaun Mannagh lit up for 5 goals and Bailey Smith had 34 disposals. Geelong don’t drop many games at home and while I have serious respect for the Lions I think the Cats can get the job done here.

VERDICT: Geelong by 17 points

Same Game Multi: Lawson Humphries to get 20 or more disposals, Max Holmes to get 25 or more disposals and Bailey Smith to get 30 or more disposals @ $3.40*

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FRIDAY

Sydney v Western Bulldogs, SCG, 5.40pm

The Swans suffered just their third loss of the season last week when beaten by Brisbane at the GABBA by 43 points. They remain firmly entrenched in second spot on the AFL table, a game and a half clear of Hawthorn.

The Western Bulldogs are one of five teams sitting between 4^th and 8^th on the ladder with a 9 win, 6 loss record. They return here off a bye and were 22 point winners over the Saints prior to having their week off.

These two sides met in round 7 at Marvel Stadium where Sydney got a hold of the Dogs and recorded a whopping 66 point victory.

The Western Bulldogs have no fears playing at the SCG having defeated Sydney in their last 2 visits to the venue in 2024 and 2025. While Sydney were a little disappointing last week their body of work overall is hard to punch holes in and I think they are the most likely winner here.

VERDICT: Sydney by 22 points

Same Game Multi: Marcus Bontempelli, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey and Errol Gulden to all get 20 or more disposals and Isaac Heeney and Bailey Dale to both get 25 or more disposals @ $3.40*

West Coast v Adelaide, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

The Eagles looked flat in their 53 point loss to Carlton at Marvel Stadium last week. They sit in 16^th place with a 4 win, 11 loss record.

Adelaide had won 6 out of 7 matches prior to their disappointing 26 point loss to cross town rivals Port Adelaide in the Showdown last week. They sit in 6^th spot on the AFL ladder with a 9 win, 6 loss record.

Adelaide are one of the clubs eyeing off a top 6 spot for finals and if they are to fulfil that ambition they will need to be winning a game like this and winning it well. I think they will come out breathing fire and take some stopping.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 33 points

Same Game Multi: Adelaide to win by 16 points or more, Tim Kelly and Harley Reid to both get 20 or more disposals and Jake Waterman to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.60*

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SATURDAY

Hawthorn v Melbourne, UTAS Stadium, 11.15am

The Hawks brought up their 4^th win from their last 5 matches when defeating the Giants by 14 points last week. They sit in a clear third spot on the AFL Ladder with their 10 win, 4 loss and 1 draw season record.

Melbourne had a 17 point loss to the Crows at the Adelaide Oval prior to having their Bye last week. They are in 7^th place on the table with a 9 win and 6 loss season record.

Despite missing some of their firepower up front with both Gunston and Watson missing again here, the Hawks have a wonderful winning strike rate in Tasmania and that appears likely to continue in this match.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Hawthorn to win, Max Gawn to get 15 or more disposals and Will Day, Jack Steele, Karl Amon and Jai Newcombe to all get 20 or more disposals @ $3.65.*

GWS v Fremantle, Manuka Oval, 11.35am

The Giants have lost their last three matches in a row including last week where they went down to Hawthorn by 14 points. Their season is slipping away as they have drifted down to 14^th spot with a 6 win, 9 loss record.

The Dockers have won 14 games on the bounce and sit on top of the Ladder with a buffer of 2 wins and percentage. They were again excellent when defeating the Suns by 51 points last weekend.

The Giants have got a significant injury list and run in to a side that are playing ruthless football, The Dockers are hard to beat again.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 23 points.

Same Game Multi: Lachie Ash and Murphy Reid to both get 20 or more disposals and Clayton Oliver, Finn Callaghan and Andrew Brayshaw to all get 25 or more disposals @ $3.45*

Gold Coast v Collingwood, People First Stadium, 2.15pm

It has been a horror stretch for the Suns dropping their last five straight matches including a 51 point smacking from Fremantle last week. It has seen them plummet to 11^th spot on the ladder with a 7 win, 8 loss record.

Wins over Port Adelaide and Richmond have seen the Pies rise in to 10^th spot on the table with 7 wins, 7 losses and a draw.

Gold Coast have been well below their best in recent weeks and they will need to sharpen that up significantly to knock off Collingwood here. I’ll lean towards the Suns on their home deck but not much would surprise here.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 7 points.

Same Game Multi: John Noble to get 20 or more disposals, Jordan De Goey and Noah Anderson to both get 25 or more disposals and Nick Daicos to get 30 or more disposals @ $3.20*

Richmond v Carlton, MCG, 5.35pm

Richmond have lost their last four matches in a row and sit in 17^th spot on the AFL table with just 2 wins for the season.

On the flip side Carlton are on a tear having won their last six matches in a row including last week’s 53 point victory over the Eagles. They are now in 12^th spot on the table and just 2 premiership points away from vying for a top ten berth.

You can’t help but be impressed with the job Josh Fraser has done since taking over from Voss at the Blues and this is certainly no tougher that what they have met over the last 6 weeks.

VERDICT: Carlton by 27 points.

Same Game Multi: Carlton to win, Sam Banks to get 15 or more disposals, Jagga Smith, George Hewett and Jayden Short to all get 20 or more disposals and Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps to both to get 25 or more disposals @ $3.15*

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SUNDAY

Essendon v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium, 1.15pm

The Bombers lost their 10^th straight match last week going down to the Kangaroos by 14 points. They have won just the solitary match this season and sit on the bottom of the ladder.

Saint Kilda had the Bye last week but prior to that they lost to the Western Bulldogs by 22 points in a match where Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera racked up a whopping 44 disposals. They are in 13^th spot on the ladder with a 6 win, 9 loss record.

Saint Kilda have consistently played to a level superior to that of the Bombers and this looks a great opportunity for them to return to the Winner’s List.

VERDICT: Saint Kilda by 33 points

Same Game Multi:  Darcy Parish, Callum Wilkie, Sam Durham and Max Hall to all get 20 or more disposals and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to get 30 or more disposals @ $3.20*

Port Adelaide v North Melbourne, Adelaide Oval, 2.40pm

The Power produced one of their most dynamic performances of the season last week when they defeated cross town rivals Adelaide in the Showdown by 26 points. They sit in 15^th spot with a 5 win, 10 loss record.

North Melbourne have won their last three games in a row and currently find themselves in 9^th spot with an 8 win and 7 loss season record.

This is a match where I honestly thought the market would be a fair bit closer together. The Power were huge last week for the Showdown but there is a possibility of the let down factor this week and they are short enough. I’ll tip Port but I think the Roos can give them a run for their money.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 5 points.

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 points or less, Luke Parker and Jason Horne-Francis to both get 20 disposals or more and Zak Butters and Harry Sheezel to both get 25 or more disposals @ $3.05*