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Robbie Von’s F1 Preview – Austrian Grand Prix

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

THE TITLE FIGHT JUST GOT INTERESTING. AUSTRIA, LET’S GO.

Lewis Hamilton won his first race for Ferrari. His 106th career win. Kimi Antonelli’s power unit gave up the ghost with three laps to go while running second. A 66 point championship lead became 41 points overnight. Just like that, this season has a title fight.

WHAT HAPPENED IN BARCELONA

Russell took pole and led early. Hamilton hunted him down, got through, and drove one of the best races of his Ferrari career. Russell second, Norris third. An all-British podium at the Circuit de Catalunya — the first since 1968.

Antonelli looked set for second until his Mercedes lost power out of Turn 5 with three laps remaining. Parked it. Walked away. His first retirement of the season and the timing could not have been worse. The reliability question is now firmly on the table inside the Mercedes garage.

WHERE THE CHAMPIONSHIP STANDS

Antonelli: 156 points. Hamilton: 115. Russell: 106. Leclerc: 75. Norris: 73.

That is not a runaway championship anymore. Hamilton is 41 back with 14 races to go. One more Antonelli mechanical and one more Hamilton win and this becomes a genuine fight. The momentum has completely shifted.

THE AUSTRIAN GRAND PRIX

The Red Bull Ring at Spielberg is one of the best circuits on the calendar. Short, sharp, draped on the side of a hill in the Styrian Mountains. Long straights into heavy braking zones. Overtaking is genuinely possible here. This is proper racing.

It is also Red Bull’s home race. Verstappen with something to prove, a home crowd behind him, and an upgrade package on the car. Ferrari bring a new engine upgrade too. McLaren have been strong here historically. Multiple storylines, multiple threats to Mercedes. Austria is shaping up as the most competitive race of the season.

THE TEAMS

Mercedes

Antonelli at $2.75 to win and $1.30 Top 3. Let’s be clear about what Antonelli is. He is a 19-year-old in the best car on the grid who has been the most dominant force of the 2026 season. That is extraordinary. But the best driver in the world? That is still Verstappen in my opinion. He just hasn’t had the machinery to show it. Antonelli is brilliant, the car is brilliant, and if it holds together he wins. The ‘Team to Feature Winning Driver’ at $1.45 remains the anchor play.

Russell at $3.75 to win is interesting. He took pole in Barcelona and ran Hamilton close. The pace is clearly there. At $3.75 he is worth a look if you think he finally puts a clean weekend together.

Ferrari

Hamilton at $4.50 to win and $1.67 Top 3. Four podiums in 2026 already — China, Canada, Monaco, and now a win in Barcelona. He is flying. The Ferrari engine upgrade in Austria could push them right to the front. Momentum building, car improving race by race. Hamilton Top 3 at $1.67 is a strong play. Ferrari ‘Team to Feature Winning Driver’ at $3.50 is worth a look too if you think Lewis goes back to back.

Red Bull

My headline value call. Verstappen at $11.00 to win at his home race with an upgrade package. As I said, still the best driver on the grid in my opinion. The Red Bull Ring has been Red Bull territory for years. The pace has never been the issue this season, the reliability has. If that car holds together for 71 laps in Spielberg, he will be right there. Verstappen Top 3 at $3.25 is the safer play and still represents solid value.

McLaren

Norris at $13.00 to win and $2.75 Top 3. Piastri at $17.00 to win and $5.50 Top 3. Norris won here in 2025 and has a strong record at the Red Bull Ring going back to his maiden podium in 2020. If McLaren’s upgrade package has clicked, he is a genuine podium threat. Norris Top 3 at $2.75 is the McLaren play this week.

The Quiet Achiever

Before we wrap up, a moment for Pierre Gasly. Only two drivers on the entire grid have scored points at every single race this season. Lewis Hamilton is one of them — but he is in a Ferrari, so that is somewhat expected. The other is Gasly. In an Alpine. Both Mercedes drivers have a DNF on their record. Yet the Flying Frenchman has quietly turned up, scored points, and gone home every single weekend in a car that simply should not be doing what it is doing. In a season full of chaos and retirements, that kind of consistency in a midfield car deserves serious recognition. Keep an eye on any points finish market TABtouch has available — if Gasly is in it, he is worth backing.

PLAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND

Kimi Antonelli to Win – $2.75

Lewis Hamilton Top 3 – $1.67

Max Verstappen to Win – $11.00 (value call)

Lando Norris Top 3 – $2.75

Mercedes ‘Team to Feature Winning Driver’ – $1.45

Ferrari ‘Team to Feature Winning Driver’ – $3.50 (value play)

Austria does not do boring. Proper overtaking, upgrade battles, a title fight that just found a pulse, and Max Verstappen at his home race desperate to remind everyone he still exists. This is the one.

Happy punting!

Odds correct at time of publication.

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