Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Gold Coast Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Big day of racing on the Gold Coast where the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes is our feature. With fine weather forecast Thursday through Saturday & temps in the low to mid 20’s I’d expect to be very close to a Good rated surface. With the blinkers back on & stepping up in distance I’d be surprised not to see (7) DAGGERS roll forward in this opening race. Interestingly he’s gone up favourite in early markets over (8) EYE OF THE EAGLE who beat him home last start & was stronger to the line at the end of the 1200m trip. He shouldn’t be any further back than midfield (hopefully closer) (8) EYE OF THE EAGLE & based on recent runs looks ready to tackle 1400m once again. (9) AMPLIFY won first up last prep aided by a solid speed, on paper she’s not likely to get the same suitable tempo today.

Numbers: 8 – 7 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet: EYE OF THE EAGLE EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

Even with 5 early scratchings as I type (nos.5, 9, 10, 14 & 16) there’s still a ton of pace in this race should all those on speed turn up. Will it turn out that way? Will the race be set up for closers? Impossible to predict, (22) DAGGERS likely gets a run here & although a dual acceptor I’d suggest this is more suitable than the previous race. Third-up, stays at 1200m & maps off speed, also gets a nice weight drop & a turnaround on his stablemate (6) BUNDELLA who beat him home last start. Another Gollan stable runner (3) WARBY can run a race fresh, hot pace suits & will be strong at the end. (11) SOOTHSAYER is a big question mark, outstanding first up off a very long break (1022 days), may want further now though & will he be as sharp?

Numbers: 22 – 3 – 11 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

The Group 3 Ken Russell is the first of our feature races this afternoon. Champion trainer Chris Waller has the early favourite (1) ST GOTTHARD going around having had just the one start for a narrow Warwick Farm victory. Interestingly he’s yet to win this race & I’m happy to take him, J. Mac & the horse on as that win was in a very, very slowly run race sitting outside the leader. I liked the look of debut winner (6) BERZELIUS who closed off strongly to score at Doomben over 1110m. The additional 90m suits & he should derive good benefit. (2) UNLOADING looks set to relish the slightly longer trip also whilst (9) MACEDON MISSION will be odds, big run second start closing from well back at Sandown, decent gap between starts & yes, market moves all important however I’d include in all exotics.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet: BERZELIUS EACH-WAY.

RACE 4

Absolute lottery this race with leading chances drawing wide gates being a major concern, how much start will they give away, can they make ground from the back? All unfortunately unknowns at this stage. I really couldn’t settle on one with any confidence ending up with (13) TEN DEEP who draws out however I’d be surprised if the instructions weren’t to go forward as the race doesn’t look like been run at any great tempo on paper. Racing very well this prep she ticks the distance box & although risking in grade drops in weight off recent runs. (15) MARGOT’S DEEL could land closer from the inside draw, back in trip is my concern, latest was forgivable, I’d be having her further up the order had this been a mile. (4) PIPPIE BEACH right in it however there are many others I can make cases for & against also.

Numbers: 13 – 15 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet: Wide, wide exotics!

RACE 5

The Listed Gold Coast Bracelet is basically the Kiwi raider (1) SINGLE RED taking on the Princess Stakes form line which I’m not keen on plus a few others out of good interstate yards capable of bobbing up without surprising. Map suggests there are 5 runners capable of going forward which suggests a genuine tempo, (1) SINGLE RED is one of those however I’d be shocked to see her get involved in any early speed duels. Her form across the ditch is lengths better than anything taking her on here & should she bring it with her is clearly the filly to beat. (3) NIGHTLINE comes out of the Princess, did find the line well & stays all day. (4) ZULEIKA very promising just a concern dropping back in distance?

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: SINGLE RED TO WIN.

RACE 6

17 acceptors in the Bat Out Of Hell however only 12 can run. As it stands there’s no shortage of speed through nos. 2, 3, 5, 11, 13, 14 & 15 (note 3 are emergencies), who runs & who doesn’t out of that bunch decides just how quick they will go, at this stage we’re not to know. (8) FLYING DESTINY is living up to his ‘flying’ name at present winning two straight, the latest lumping 62kg. Yes, this is harder however he tumbles 10kg & maps better than midfield with possibly the last shot at the leaders should those numbers not fall away, should they do so he may face a task. Freshened up 1000m suits (11) TONKIN who may be the best of the on-speed runners should they end up being advantaged. (7) SCAMPI maps well however all his winning form is on damp ground which isn’t likely today.

Numbers: 8 – 11 – 6 – 13

Suggested Bet: FLYING DESTINY EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

The Group 2 Hollindale should be an exciting race to watch with (9) PRIDE OF JENNI running along in the lead, how far will that lead be? Well, on paper she doesn’t have any decent early opposition suggesting it could be a big one! I’ve never tipped her successfully in the past & won’t start now however if she brings her ‘A’ game she maps & rates to win. (1) HALF YOURS faces an unfavourable map, obviously he’ll be better suited in the Doomben Cup over 200m further in a fortnight however his late finishing burst in the All Aged was a cracker & 400m further is enough to give him a chance here, will he be close enough to strike once they hit the straight? (3) BIRDMAN a solid chance also, settles in front of (1) HALF YOURS.

Numbers: 1 – 9 – 3 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

The Gold Coast Guineas should be run at a strong tempo with plenty going forward from inside & outside gates. Many suggest (14) SYLPH is the best maiden in the country & I’d say that’s more than fair, others suggest she’s not quite the genuine article & maybe that’s a fair opinion also. The gate, the tempo, the rise in trip all suit & at the odds on offer I’m tipping her each-way. (2) BEADMAN had valid excuses in the Arrowfield (very wide), ticks the track & jockey box, I’d suggest camps in behind the speed & will get his chance late. (10) NEPO BABY in the mix as are a number of others, this is a very competitive looking race.

Numbers: 14 – 2 – 10 – 5

Suggested Bet: SYLPH EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

Happy to back two runners in the closing event being (1) HIDDEN WEALTH & (5) MIDNIGHT IN TOKYO who will both land in the front end of the field, suggest they should comfortably park in the first 4 or 5 once the dust settles. I’ll lean to the former who was outstanding first up when never on the track at any stage working overtime, beaten a length on the line he was still giving plenty. (5) MIDNIGHT IN TOKYO is very effective fresh, won’t want a hard deck which certainly won’t be the case, should we remain in the soft range her chances will increase. Can’t overlook the ultra-consistent (7) PEREILLE who will be running on strongly.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet: HIDDEN WEALTH/MIDNIGHT IN TOKYO TO WIN.

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