Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Massive day of racing coming up at Randwick on Saturday with Day 1 of The Championships taking place. Track rated a soft (5) on Thursday with showers possible Friday & race day however officially only between 0-11mm is expected which would be ideal, save any watering. Pleased to report no Midways or Highways this week as we kick off with a Group 3 for the 2yo’s over 1100m. Plenty of interest in the debutante (9) BLUE DOOR coming off an 8 length trial win which was backed up on the clock, yes it was on heavy ground however she might be well above average & provided she’s not a market drifter I’m in her corner. (3) THE NEXT EPISODE has a long way to go to repay his 2.8-million-dollar price tag however he’s on his way having won well at Warwick Farm, suggest there’s plenty of improvement to come & he’s in the right hands.

Numbers: 9 – 3 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet: Follow any market support for BLUE DOOR.

RACE 2

Group 2 Adrian Knox, the Oaks is on the radar for many of these. Liked the way (3) SOVERATO finished off at Rosehill in the Phar Lap, that was her third successive run around the 1500m range & it’s clear she’s looking for further. She gets it here & with J. Mac to steer. No knock the very much in form (4) FEMININO bar the wide gate, she’s going to need luck or cover. (7) PROFOUNDLY was game in the same race, parked very wide she was still finishing on late, not really bred to run this trip however stranger things have happened. (6) CLASSIC GEM in the mix also, another who may need some luck from a poor gate.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet: SOVERATO TO WIN.

RACE 3

Interesting race the Group 3 Chairmans with most form coming out of the Manion Cup run at Rosehill & won by Mr Monaco, the runners on certainly held all the aces in that race. (1) CAMPALDINO couldn’t get in & ended up doing a ton of work with his big weight, never a chance in the straight he at least stuck on & should land a softer run today. (3) TRAVOLTA was the one making the most ground in that race, he won the St. Leger here over this trip in the spring & looks very close. Thought (5) JUJA KIBO had every chance in that same race however he’s fourth up now & at peak fitness, happy to give him another chance.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 5 – 14

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

There’s a number of horses going around in this race with good reputations who seem a little overrated on what they have actually done, particularly of late. I’m going left of field putting the last start Midway winner (10) BARRENGARRY on top at big odds. Only lightly raced he’s done nothing wrong at all & that last start win whilst in lower grade was very good after sitting deep & in a race with tempo against. (4) AERODROME is one with a solid strike rate, good winner in Canberra last start he should land a soft run from the inside alley. (6) CROSSBOW a chance also, just get the feeling this race could turn up a big surprise.

Numbers: 10 – 4 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet: BARRENGARRY EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 5

The 1-million-dollar plus Country Championships is made up of horses who have won their way through from all parts of the state, lining the form up isn’t easy! I’ll lean to the last start Gold Coast winner (3) CONSIDERED who made it 6 straight wins with that fast-finishing victory. She maps nicely from the favourable draw for Nash Rawiller & with a gap to charge through late lookout! (5) WARRIOR FOR PEACE is also capable of a big finish, drawn out is ok as it should allow him to gain an unimpeded run home. (12) CHIDIAC ran well in the Kosciuszko here in the spring winding up in third spot, she’ll be primed for this off the first up win & should run the trip out ok.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 12 – 14

Suggested Bet: Go as wide as your pocket allows!

RACE 6

The 149th running of the Group 1 Sires Produce Stakes. Victorian Filly Streisand heads the market with Campione D’italia a clear second pick, at this stage punters have that pair clearly on top of their rivals with almost double-figure odds the rest. We just haven’t seen a standout 2yo this season with Guest House winning a very open Golden Slipper after a month of lead-up races which were shared around. Can we expect yet another rough result here?

Let’s look at some stats.

20 of the past 30 winners contested the Golden Slipper (15 either won or placed)

Barriers have been of little importance with 4 of the past 8 winners drawing 10 or wider.

Gai Waterhouse the most successful current trainer with 7 wins.

Shortest priced winner Luskin Star 1/7 (1977)

Longest priced winner Mighty Manitou 200/1 (1982)

Paradoxium will be looking to zoom across from the wide gate, suggest Miss Chanel will also push forward, Streisand not far away. I’m happy to back the two favourites (4) CAMPIONE D’ITALIA & (12) STREISAND who ran completely different races in the Slipper. The former ran on from last making up many lengths & clocking strong closing sectionals suggesting the rise in trip to 1400m is ideal. (12) STREISAND on the other hand raced up on the very solid tempo & gave plenty down the straight, she rallied hard when looking like being run over late to rally & hold down second placing. So, which one?  (4) CAMPIONE D’ITALIA has 1400m written all over him whilst (12) STREISAND not so much & that Slipper run surely was a real gut buster, I’ll lean his way.

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 6 – 13

Suggested Bet: CAMPIONE D’ITALIA TO WIN/Saver STREISAND.

RACE 7

Just the 30th running of the Group 1 T. J. Smith which was known as the Endeavour Stakes in its inaugural year (1997) when won by Mahogany. Numbers may only be small however this year’s edition lacks nothing in class with plenty of Group 1 form amongst the contenders. Highly rated Lightning winner Tentyris heads the market, absolutely outstanding winning that race first-up he then had his colours lowered in the Newmarket when out of the money. Can he bounce back here?

Let’s look at some stats.

3YO’s have won 6 of the 29 running’s.

Canterbury Stakes winners record (same year) 3 starters for 2 placings (Joliestar this year).

Defending champions 14 starters for 4 winners (Briasa this year).

4 of the past 6 winners have contested the Lightning Stakes

Team Hawkes the most successful current trainers with 4 wins.

James McDonald the most successful current jockey with 3 wins.

The very speedy Overpass should cross & lead Mazu, nothing is going with that pair, they will control the tempo of the race & hold the hopes of the backmarkers in their hands. I’m playing (3) GIGA KICK on an each-way basis as he ticks plenty of boxes & will go around at a value price. Things didn’t pan out for him first up however he powered home late in the Challenge clocking a very impressive late sectional. The step up in distance is what he’s now chasing & let’s not forget he’s won an Everest this track & trip. He handles any track condition & gets Zac Purton to steer. I’m a big (1) JIMMYSSTAR fan & am more than happy to forgive his first up run when racing on inferior ground, he’ll also be very strong late. Certainly including (7) TENTYRIS whilst (6) JOLIESTAR just tends to race at her very best early in her preps, she’s third-up here.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet: GIGA KICK EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

The Doncaster Mile once known as the Doncaster Handicap (until 2009) is one of the big Group 1 Handicaps run in Australia. Steeped in tradition this will be the 161st running of a race won by some of our ‘greats’ of the turf. Victorian filly Sheza Albi dominates the market this year, I’m not sure she’s going to end up another ‘great’ however her win in the Randwick Guineas last start certainly was. She made a mess of Autumn Boy in the process; he’ll go around a distant second favourite.

Let’s look at some stats.

3YO have won the race on 40 occasions.

No filly has won since Sunline (1999) from 17 contenders (Sheza Alibi this year).

Caulfield Guineas winners record (same season) 4 starters for 2 placings (Autumn Boy this year).

Gai Waterhouse the most successful current trainer with 7 wins.

Zac Purton the most successful current jockey with 3 wins.

Always a cracking race run at a solid tempo. I cannot tip against the filly (15) SHEZA ALIBI who was so dominant in the Randwick Guineas. She showed an outstanding turn of foot once called upon in the straight powering clear of the field. She’ll get further on that however staying at the mile today off a freshen up with only 49kg she’s going to be mighty hard to hold out. (1) GRINGOTTS closed off well in the George Ryder behind the superstar mare Autumn Glow, nobody’s beating her however he did a good job after being held up in the straight. (9) VIVY AIR arguably wins last start with clearer running earlier, up in grade however another with no weight to carry.

Numbers: 15 – 1 – 7 – 9

Suggested Bet: SHEZA ALIBI TO WIN.

RACE 9

The Australian Derby was first run in 1861 (on a Thursday). Phar Lap, Tulloch, Kingston Town, they all won this race on their way stardom & the list doesn’t end there. I’d be surprised if we had any 3yo’s of that calibre going around this year however it’s a very competitive looking edition. Victoria Derby winner Observer heads the market, his winning run came to an end at Rosehill, can he bounce back?

Let’s look at some stats.

Fillies have won only 5 times since 1979.

Victoria Derby winners record (same season since 1979) 27 starters for 4 wins & 6 placings. (Observer this year).

Tulloch Stakes winners record (same year) 39 starters for 9 wins & 8 placings (Storm Leopard this year).

James McDonald & Damian Lane the most successful current jockeys with 2 wins.

Observer will be looking to lead, that’s a given however should something decide to push on & look menacing I’m sure J. Mac will ease & knowing him slot in perfectly! I’m keen on the chances of (3) GREEN SPACES who just keeps on improving with each step up in distance. Too far back in the Randwick Guineas he made late eye-catching ground, up to the 2000m in the Rosehill version he passed all runners bar the winner Autumn Boy. 2400m is an unknown however on what we’ve seen, very suitable. (1) OBSERVER is without doubt the class act in the race; he does need to improve on that latest run though. (7) FEDERALIST is another who can find the line strongly, should he run this out he’s a chance.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet: GREEN SPACES TO WIN.

RACE 10

I’ll stick with (1) INKARUNA in this final race however won’t be taking anything south of $3 as I did feel she had every chance last start when narrowly beaten. Without doubt she was unlucky not to get the money first up when held up badly & she never really seems to run a bad race. Should (20) NEPO BABY gain a start I’d definitely be having a saver, both runs back have been sound & she’ll find this easier than last start, freshened up, trialled very well. Throw (12) MARETH into the mix, I’m convinced she can do something soon however the barrier gods have not been kind to her today.

Numbers: 1 – 20 – 12 – 9

Suggested Bet: INKARUNA TO WIN ($3 or better)/Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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