Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

EXCESS BAGGAGE was blisteringly good against C1 opposition at Belmont when winning from a seemingly impossible position on straightening. Dropped back to 1000m last start and flagged behind a subsequent winner in Pingers. Looks to get the right run and has a sharp turn of foot. SWINGMAN caught the eye fresh at 1000m and then took full advantage of the conditions second-up to win this distance/grade. The use of the Holly Nottle claim means he carries the same weight here and that sees him hard to run down. GOD’S CROSS was arguably the run of the meeting on Bunbury Cup/Stakes Day, as it was near impossible to make ground and he got through traffic to flash late at Swingman. More than capable of turning the tables. COUNTRY GOD gets nice weight relief.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – EXCESS BAGGAGE WIN

RACE 2

DESERT LIFE ran a fast finishing third behind stablemate Eternal Wine before taking a big step into a 60+ 1200 at Bunbury when running second to Great Emotion. Think she’s a better short course sprinter so back to the 1000 a plus and between Universal Playboy, Earth God and Spicy Thang they’ll turn the speed on to suit her. Fellow filly SPICY THANG was scratched from a winnable race on Wednesday to save for this. Like the use of the Holly Nottle claim to bring her in under the minimum but the map is questionable? Do they ride her cold to avoid being three deep? MY HIDDEN UNIVERSE is all X-Factor. He could win, he could tail out. Worth remembering he did win a 1000m dash first-up on a Good4 back in May. EARTH GOD has been thereabouts all campaign and is going well enough to pinch this.

Numbers: 7 – 8 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – DESERT LIFE WIN

RACE 3

OSCARS FORTUNE had four runs last campaign when returning to WA after losing his way in Victoria. Second to Joker’s Grin at WFA over 1000, second to Joker’s Grin at SWP over 1100, sixth in a Winterbottom and then fourth in a Gold Rush both at WFA. This is an ideal race for him fresh and they all need to run to his level. ALMIGHTY CLASS only has a 1kg pull in the weights but his first and only run for new trainer Trevor Andrews was electric. He has been back to trials since and can stalk the speed. Very well suited to drawing barrier 1 and box seating with his point to point acceleration. ACROMANTULA and CESSATION will both burn along in front and give the fancies something to run down. High speed, high pressure 1000m types. Expect that with 53kg they’ll look to hold up on Cessation and absorb the pressure.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – OSCARS FORTUNE WIN

RACE 4

BLACK ORA is 3/3 undefeated first-up and a 5x 1000m winner. Last campaign Adam Durrant produced her first-up, no trial off 126 days and she produced the goods, the campaign before that off 95 days (and at 1200m). She’ll be very hard to hold out late. CELESTIAL STORM was beaten fair and square by Santanova last time they met but does get a 3.5kg weight swing for a three-quarter length margin. Parks up close handy behind Tycoon Harry and Cut The Talk she can turn the tables. CUT THE TALK is awkwardly caught between grades now. Either take on the Listed Sprinters or cop 62kg here in the 72+ ratings races. SANTANOVA has gone to a whole new level this campaign and is capable of reeling off a 33 second L600 but under 59.5kg from near last, she’ll need it.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – BLACK ORA WIN

RACE 5

AURUM BELLE was a $750,000 Yearling Purchase and made a serious impression on debut. The market was all over her late and she was simply too brilliant for them over the 1000m. Being drawn inside key rivals and fellow on speeders All On Red and He’s A Machino gives Brad Parnham the first look at the fence. HE’S A MACHINO has looked elite at trials and in he is only race start he toyed with them. His recent barrier trial suggests he’s back bigger and better and that’s daunting heading towards the Perth Stakes and Karrakatta Plate after this. SNOW MONKEY got the run off Aurum Belle’s back on debut but couldn’t bridge the gap. She’ll only be improved for the run. ALL ON RED was a very sharp and professional youngster.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet – AURUM BELLE WIN

Same Race Multi- Aurum Belle (Top 2) + He’s A Machino (Top 2)

Think the undefeated pair Aurum Belle and He’s A Machino are a grade above their rivals in the Supremacy Stakes and that the cream will rise to the top and they’ll fill the Quinella. Aurum Belle looks like finding the fence first and then it’ll be up to He’s A Machino to find a spot being drawn slightly sticky outside All On Red. They’re both very good.

RACE 6

INFLUENCING is better than Westspeed Platinum company, and with the 3kg claim of emerging apprentice Natika Riordan he looks hard to beat backing up off 7 days out of a ridiculously fast run race behind Horcrux and King Adviso where they stopped the clock at 1:08:84. Back in grade, on the 7 day back-up (1/1 undefeated), last three wins at 1400m and maps a treat. Like. ROMMEL’S GODDESS was over a month between runs last weekend and was beaten under 2L in a race that was dominated in front of her. Could hold up here and look to lead too. Big improver. ON PATROL is rarely far from the winner in this grade. DON’T TRUST JUDAS has been going well for a couple of months now, just hard to catch.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – INFLUENCING WIN

RACE 7

SEARCHIN TIMES is a serious filly in the making. She is only coming out of Maiden, C1 and C3 company, but with 54.5kg as a 3 year old filly taking on the older horses she has the profile of a horse who could get avalanched in betting. Really like the look of her. DEFENDING deserved that win last time out. He has been without luck all prep: wide and working or attacked when leading, and even last start he got posted 3 deep for the majority from barrier 4. Can’t argue with how honest and consistent he has been. MACCIATEAU looked to peak in the last 200m fresh and then second-up he ended up in an awkward position in a 66+. King Hit has won again out of that race and Macciateau sneaks back into a 60+ Grad on the eachway. STREAMLINED found the 1200 far too short first-up.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 3 – 11

Suggested Bet – SEARCHIN’ TIMES WIN

RACE 8

TRUE PLAYER got the better of LILLIAN last time out, and it was probably the ride of Lucy Fiore that was the difference. She pulled the trigger and ensured that True Player was right over the top of them on straightening and had a full head of steam. With a 1.5kg weight swing there’s every chance that LILLIAN can bounce back and win a fourth race for the prep. TRUE PLAYER has always promised to work his way through the grades and make into a nice stayer. This could well be his break out preparation and see no reason why he can’t win a third straight race. AUDIO BOY is Audio Boy and will probably run another placing without threatening as a winning chance. QUEEN OF JERUSALEM is ready now.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 11

Suggested Bet – LILLIAN WIN

RACE 9

BONJOY was $26 into $6 in the Bunbury Stakes and was back to her brilliant best. Ratings wise she only needed to reproduce her three quarter length defeat in the Asian Beau to subsequent Railway Stakes winner Watch Me Rock to be highly competitive and she did a massive job to sprint over the top of them after looking in a world of hurt on straightening. She’s just a winner and CJP rides her with pure blind confidence in her ability. FAST FLICKER has returned in outstanding order and she can take full advantage of her favourable alley. ESSENTRIC NATURE tests the waters in Listed Company for the first time, get the feeling dropping 5kg he’ll measure up. DEMOLISH is competitive from 1400 to 2400. Can’t never be underestimated.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 10 – 8

Suggested Bet – BONJOY WIN

RACE 10

MALLETIER was solid at his WA debut but a sharp improver second-up when parking three deep the trip and gobbling up King Adviso in the concluding stages this track/distance/grade. Looks another race with above average tempo to allow him to blend in midfield and unleash late. PRAWNS ELEVEN has won two from three since returning to Australia from Hong Kong and he couldn’t have won any softer last time out. If he jumps he has the speed to lead these, but he also has the versatility to take a sit if something else wants to burn. SNOW GOD had everything go wrong first-up after being backed from $3 into $1.75. Complete forgive. ROLLING RULER gets back out to 1200m on the 7 day back-up after yet another encouraging performance.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 9 – 7

Suggested Bet – MALLETIER WIN

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

1,9

1,2

3,5,10

2,8,9

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