Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

With the autumn carnival now in full swing we have another terrific day of racing to look forward to at Rosehill on Saturday. Most importantly the weather is fine & the track will be good. The meeting gets underway with a 1500m Midway where I’m leaning to the consistent (3) ICEMAN who put in a cracking first up run here late last month zooming home from a clear last. I’d suggest from the good draw today he won’t give as big a start & his form around this level is very consistent. (6) STARPHISTOCATED should be ready to fire third run back, she’s a winner here from only the single attempt & will be peaking. (4) GEEMES resumes, fresh record to date not ideal however she rose through the grades last prep & is worth another chance, market?

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

This week’s Highway is as open as most weeks. We can’t even follow the Matt Dunn lead as his charge (13) SHREDDED is an early scratching (going around R5 at Doomben). (6) SOLITARIO resumes with a good fresh record & I like him with the extra trial this time in, he only had the one when successful at Scone first up last campaign. That suggests he’s been set for this & the booking of J. Mac confirms my suspicions. (4) MICRO MIKKI hasn’t been far away of late, didn’t get much of a go at them last time however isn’t proven out to this trip & is also a month between runs, betting? (1) HIGHWAY STRIP can improve dropping in grade, rises plenty in weight though.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

Here’s a good competitive looking race with a few different form lines to sort through. Honestly I could make a decent case for all runners however (9) STORMLAND might be the safest way out. Run down by (6) EAGLE EXPRESS last start (they meet again today) the drop back to 1100m looks far more in his favour than the mare & for the weights students he gets a 1.5kg turnaround for the almost half-length defeat. (1) BEV’S NINE hasn’t started for a month however has trialled soundly to keep the fitness levels up, wide gate no help however winning form cannot be knocked. (7) POLYGLOT is always a chance in these races; I could have easily missed the winner.

Numbers: 9 – 6 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Keen to see how the ex-Kiwi filly (13) TRANSCEND fares here. She’s only had the 4 starts to date finishing no further back than second & her only local start although defeated was a good effort to beat all bar the winner who led throughout & had tempo to suit. I’ve liked both her trials & I’ll be very surprised should she not figure in the finish. (2) UZZIAH has the race fitness & should be peaking third run back from a break, well drawn, 2kg claim, plenty of ticks. (4) EMIRATE returns a gelding, will the ultimate gear change sharpen him up? Well, he’s had two lead-up trials & hasn’t been let down at all looking to have something to offer, poorly drawn however note J. Mac rode in both trials & is on board today, make of that what you will.

Numbers: 13 – 2 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: Follow any market support for TRANSCEND.

RACE 5

(2) LORD PENMAN is an ex-Kiwi who caught my eye at his first local outing which was here on a heavy track finding the line very strongly at the end of 1200m. We didn’t see him again until 5 weeks later & over 400m further, he should have finished closer there (unlucky) & then went on to have a good prep without winning, I can’t help but think he’s better prepared this time around though & 1400m looks ideal first up. (3) MAGNATEAR looks the only other chance on recent form, logical danger if in fact there is one.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 6 – 10

Suggested Bet: LORD PENMAN TO WIN.

RACE 6

The Group 2 Silver Slipper kicks off our feature races today. 10 acceptors of which three (1, 4 & 6) all finished behind the impressive (2) HIDRIX last start, I can’t see any of that trio turning the tables on him. Freshened up & back to the trials (successfully) (9) SHIKI showed a turn of foot when winning at the Gold Coast two back, I’d suggest it’s a short, sharp one though suggesting she needs to be close enough without leading. (1) INCOGNITO surely improves whilst (4) CONFEDERATION takes plenty of benefit from that debut second behind HIDRIX.

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet: HIDRIX TO WIN.

RACE 7

The Group 3 Paramatta Cup over the 1900m, many resume, very tough. (14) PIGGYBACK was an eye-catcher first up at Randwick a fortnight back clocking slick sectionals all the way down the straight. She’s a mare who comes to hand quickly & will appreciate the additional 300m this afternoon, that slight race fitness has to be a positive against many of her first up rivals. (6) TRAVOLTA comes out of the same race, definite pass mark & he ticks a few boxes here. Poor alley for (8) CAMPALDINO however he was in cracking form last prep & should he get across early could take some running down.

Numbers: 14 – 6 – 8 – 12

Suggested Bet: PIGGYBACK EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 8

The Group 2 Hobartville for the 3yo’s sees the return of the Caulfield Guineas winner (1) AUTUMN BOY & I’m firmly in his corner. Yes, he’ll have bigger targets during the autumn however even not quite at his fittest today he should still prove to classy. Beaten by Sixties (good form line) first up last prep he was never on the track in a very fast run Golden Rose before showing just how good he is with that Guineas win. Given a very soft time in his latest trial he’ll be ready to go. As we all know (7) NINJA was very stiff not to win the Magic Millions 3yo at the Gold Coast, he’s flying however this is another level, I’m a little surprised he’s in front of AUTUMN BOY in early markets, race fitness most likely the reason. Definite respect for (2) ATTICA however he may need this one?

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: AUTUMN BOY TO WIN.

RACE 9

The Group 2 Millie Fox for the fillies & mares. I’m a fan of (1) LAZZURA & she goes on top first up from a break. She won the Show County followed by the Let’s Elope down south her first 2 starts last prep then disappeared for a month before turning in a very flat effort in the Toorak, she just didn’t seem to have the same dash after the gap in runs. She’s finished well back in both lead-up trials however hasn’t been asked for any effort whatsoever. (2) OH DIAMOND LIL resumes with a very good fresh record & a dominant lead-up trial win, she should be able to get across from the wide gate without using too much petrol & will give the top tip something to run down. Suggest (4) PINITO will need the run however don’t underestimate her, she’s yet to miss a placing in 11 starts & will be doing her best work late.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: LAZZURA TO WIN.

RACE 10

With a good tempo highly likely in this closing race Zac Lloyd may have to take a trail on the well performed (9) TONKIN who hasn’t raced for 5 weeks. She has trialled though winning a recent heat here at Rosehill coming off the back of the leader & cruising on by which is a good sign. (12) LULUMON ticks a number of boxes here, again gets in with a very light weight & can figure in the finish. The very honest (2) KERGUELEN will be running on at the business end of the race.

Numbers: 9 – 12 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet: TONKIN TO WIN.

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