The Scout: EPL Week 28 Preview

Posted on March 16, 2023March 28, 2023 | Posted by The Scout

Nottingham Forest v Newcastle United

Nottingham Forest midfielder Jonjo Shelvey will take on his former teammates when Newcastle United travel to the City Ground.

Shelvey had been a regular presence at St James’ Park during seven years with the club before current manager Eddie Howe reluctantly allowed him to leave in the January transfer window.

But another ex-Magpie, Kiwi Chris Wood, is ineligible to play as he is still on loan from Newcastle ahead of a permanent move at the end of the season.

Goals from defender Fabian Schar and striker Callum Wilson were the difference the last time the team’s met as Forest made a losing start on their return to the Premier League.

But for all their improvement since then, Steve Cooper’s side continue to struggle for victories with just six all season.

The potential problem for Newcastle is that five of Forest’s successes have been at the City Ground where Leeds, Leicester, Crystal Palace, Liverpool and West Ham have all been beaten.

Brennan Johnson’s pace and eye for goal make him a standout Forest star with seven goals this season, and his ability to unsettle the Newcastle defence will be a key for the home side.

Newcastle emerged from a sticky patch last weekend with a victory over Wolves that was secured by top scorer Miguel Almiron, who now has 11 Premier League goals this season.

The win was Newcastle’s first in six Premier League games and lifted them back to fifth place. They will again be without Joelinton, as he completes his two-match suspension, although Joe Willock made a promising return to the starting line-up against Wolves in the absence of the Brazilian.

Scoring goals doesn’t exactly come easily to Newcastle but Alexander Isak’s header last weekend – his fourth Premier League goal – will give him confidence as he continues to improve after a hamstring injury.

Suggested Bet: Newcastle to win + Under 2.5 goals (Same Game Multi) @ $3.65*

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Aston Villa v Bournemouth

Bournemouth have won two of their last four games to turn relegation chat into a more positive conversation. There is still a long way to go in the relegation fight before Gary O’Neil can even consider Premier League safety, but his side’s form since a January draw with Nottingham Forest is a positive sign.

The Cherries have also drawn with Newcastle and had wins against Wolves and Liverpool. There are also three defeats in their last seven games, albeit against the Premier League’s top two, Arsenal and Manchester City, and Brighton, who are knocking on the door of European places this season.

As a measure of Bournemouth’s improvement under O’Neil, it’s worth remembering that before his arrival the Cherries were beaten 9-0 by Liverpool, triggering the sacking of previous manager Scott Parker. Fast forward a little over six months and you arrive at last weekend’s 1-0 win over the Reds at the Vitality Stadium.

Philip Billing scored the winner in that game and was also on target after just nine seconds a week earlier in a 3-2 loss to Arsenal.

But as you would expect from a team sitting 18th on the Premier League table, Bournemouth aren’t prolific, scoring at a rate of less than a goal a game and conceding almost twice every game.

By comparison, Villa are a more capable outfit, especially since Unai Emery took the managerial reins after Steven Gerrard was given the boot.

Emery has overseen seven wins and the revitalisation of Ollie Watkins, who has scored seven goals in 11 matches under the Spaniard.

Villa have scored more goals, created more chances and have a better defensive record than Bournemouth with World Cup winning goalkeeper Emi Martinez having kept six of Villa’s seven clean sheets.

Suggested Bet: Villa to win + Both teams to score (Same Game Multi) @ $3.80*

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Wolverhampton Wanderers v Leeds United

The Premier League is such a tight affair this season that a win for struggling Leeds United will take them within a point of Wolves, who go into this weekend’s round of fixtures in 13th place.

If Southampton upset Brentford in the early hours of Thursday morning (WA time), Leeds will be rock bottom ahead of their trip to Molineux.

The form guide paints an interesting picture with both sides having lost three, won one and drawn one of their most recent five games. Wolves’ win over Spurs is a slightly more impressive scalp than Southampton, who lost to Leeds late last month.

But the manner of last weekend’s draw with Brighton, when Leeds fought back twice to earn a point, pleased new manager Javi Gracia, who has been in charge for just three Premier League games (a win, loss and a draw).

What he would give to have the relative luxury of the 16 games fellow Spaniard Julen Lopetegui has had to work on his Premier League survival project at Wolves. Lopetegui has registered six wins and four draws from 16 matches since his appointment at Wolves in November.

While Wolves are higher on the table, other statistics tell a different tale. Leeds create more big chances and they score more goals, which could get even better after Patrick Bamford’s second goal of the season last weekend and the return of top scorer Rodrigo.

Midfielder Daniel Podence and Ruben Neves have contributed most to Wolves’ goal tally with five each this season.

Before midweek fixtures, only five points separated 12th-placed Crystal Palace and bottom side Southampton, which, for the teams in between, makes every win critical in the fight to avoid relegation.

Suggested Bet: Draw + Under 2.5 goals @ $3.70*

*Odds correct as at 10am, 16th March 2023.

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