Dogs

The 2023 Perth Cup and Galaxy Runner-By-Runner

Posted on | Posted by Harry Buchanan

It’s Cannington’s night of nights with the Group 1 Perth Cup (520m) and Group 1 Galaxy (715m) being run on Saturday night. We will delve right into both races with a runner by runner look and try and isolate the key chances to take the 2 big races out. 

We also have 2 tremendous consolations for the cup and an open consolation for the Galaxy that we will preview.

Race 7 – Sky Racing Perth Cup 520m (G1)

Box 1 Elite Machine

The new favourite for the cup after coming up with the prized rails draw.  Unbeaten off the box, 10-time winner at the track and trip and comes off the fastest heat win of 29.55 after dropping a 5.47 early. Has absolutely everything in his favour here and only has to nail the start reasonably well to drive up and hold the arm. It will take an almighty performance for anything to mow him down from there. Will need that step to avoid a few coming down and moving in on him and that’s where his highest challenge lies. All things equal, can win the Cup for Jamie Marsh and Daniel Williams and become the premier sprinter in WA.

Box 2 Mick Flash

Any chance he has of hitting the frame increased when he was afforded this draw. Took advantage of a similar draw last week when railing up off a steady 5.67 early into a striking spot to go on for a strong win in 29.95. Lacks the speed to carve out the fast times here but keeps coming and will be poised for a first turn run should it present. Plays for luck but that may not be enough to win. Can place however for an underrated kennel who are having a good run at the moment. 

Box 3 Electrified 

Got the start right in his heat and that was half the battle over as he had nothing inside to pressure him to the first turn. Carved out a 5.49 to go on for a superb 29.63 victory to advance. The current 2nd fav but the fact remains, while his bag of tricks may be getting smaller, there are still one or two in the old back pocket. Steve Shinners has done great work with this dog and has a big wrap on him and rightly so. The kennel have a terrific strike rate and will have him ready for this. Some trust is needed however and if he doesn’t find the arm past by 700s, it will be nervous watch for punters late in the race. No limit to his ability and can do anything if he turned up in the right mood. If he does lead solo, there are only two dogs who can run him down and both would need to be right on his tail. He will either win or lose this cup in the first split but is an undeniable chance all the same and has all the tools to win the cup as long as they all arrive sharp. 

Box 4 Momentum

Some training performance this. Sensational effort in his heat to not only step and muster out a 5.49, but was headed to only come again run down the young gun Crumble Monelli. All this off a 715m run the previous week. The consummate professional who has a sublime record here with 17 wins at the track and trip. Boxed ok here with the 3 moving in early to give him his room. A repeat of his heat run will see him very hard to beat but probably just needs to find a little more on the clock this week as he may be chasing a 29.5 up front. Can hit the frame though and what a result it will be for this grand campaigner if he was to win the Perth Cup. 

Box 5 Yahoo Serious

Another who just goes about his work each week in typical tradesman like fashion. Had the benefit of a good draw in his heat when downing Jimmy’s Decision in 29.87. Lacks an early split over this trip to compete with some of these at box rise but will get over to the fence and probe for runs at the first turn and up the back. Needs luck but chases hard and won’t give up and will be strong through the line. Minor hopes are the very best chance for him. 

Box 6 Lupini Monelli

Whatever tricks Steve Shinners had Electrified get rid of, David Hobby and Lupini found them. Enigmas come in all shapes and sizes but this is the pin up girl of enigmatic dogs. Can be beaten out of sight one week, only to come out and run down Kelsey Bale a week later. Can do anything in the right mood however would need a miracle first turn run to even be close enough to do that here. Even then, her run would need to be timed to perfection to hit the line just at the right time. Dogs don’t win Perth Cups needing all this to go right. Prefer to pass with her but will be running on. 

Box 7 Who Told Tuff

If his chances weren’t already slim after getting a lucky first turn run in his heat to score, the box draw made sure he now has little to no chance sadly. Capitalised on trouble to the first turn last week to take a fence hugging run and score in 30.11. Fast dog who has not set the world alight here at Cannington even though he has a lot of speed on a circuit like Mandurah with some tremendous efforts there. Would need a miracle to score or even a lot of luck to place but will try very hard as he always does. 

Box 8 Rumblin’ Moment

Rewarded for his consistency here with an all the way victory in his heat. Then his chances nose dived when the pink marble dropped. Simply put, he is on the wrong side of the track. However, he carved out the quickest first split of the heats last week going 5.41 early so that poses problems for the dogs inside as he usually steps. Even if he gets over, his overall best of 29.75 won’t quite be enough to hold some of these off but he will give a great sight and makes his presence felt early in the race. Could play a part in the result for some of these as he will cross and cross quickly. Not this year but great result to make the final.

RESERVES

No. 9 Kelsey Bale

Would rocket into calculations if she gained a start off an inside box. Would need to find very little improvement on her heat run although she will which means she can win this off the right draw. Inside four boxes would see her a major threat after being nabbed on the line in 29.75. Can go faster than that and now she’s had a look, won’t be as vulnerable this week. Don’t dismiss if she gets a start. 

No. 10 Runaway To Mars

Unlikely to gain a start and while his heat win was full of merit, this would be a little too soon for him. Watch for next year as he is progressive and very talented and has a lot before him. Better chance in the consolation. 

SUMMARY  

An edition of the Perth Cup that shows, if nothing else, the local sprinters are right up to the very best this country have to offer (around their home circuit, at least). Every runner with the exception of the first reserve is trained in WA. Superb race and the run to the first turn as usual, will determine a huge amount of the outcome. The 1 Elite Machine goes on top. The box, early speed, fastest heat and a sense of timing suggest he will be awfully hard to beat if he holds up early. The 4 Momentum goes in next because he is a warrior who can get himself in positions to strike and he will find more on last week. Map is ok. The 3 Electrified can’t be left out as he will be a major threat if he nails the start and has the figures to be in this finish. Round it out with 2 Mick Flash, as someone has to get the fence run first and he’s boxed to be the most likely recipient of that. The 5 and 6 could go into your back end exotics. Don’t leave the 9 out if she gains a start. Sensational race.

Selections: 1-4-3-2

Race 6 – Sky Racing Galaxy 715m (G1)

Box 1 Stagger Out Lee 

High class stayer who presented first up here in her heat with her usual barnstorming style to charge home for an ultra impressive victory. Steps quickly but lacks muster and has a little flat spot but has the unique ability to avoid trouble while she gets through that. Delivers the big last section that few can hold off and the box will see her close when that run starts. She will be awfully hard to stop here and won’t miss the podium with any luck and can absolutely win. Top chance. 

Box 2 Chloe Ant

One of 3 Crudeli trained runners all from the same litter. Set the pace in her heat at her first 715m attempt but was no match for the finishing burst of the red. Her run was super considering she was first up and still went 42.17 in defeat. Has the draw to again punch up and look for the arm and would need it to be any threat here. Even then she will struggle to hold some of these off but could hit the first 4 if she snuck away. Minor hope at very best. 

Box 3 Rippin’ Grace

While I am still convinced she can not stay, she deserves some credit for finishing 3rd behind Ariarne Bale in her heat after copping a hefty first turn check. Rails well and has some mid race speed but simply lacks the class of the main players and the last section will again see her vulnerable here with her 42.53 not enough to see her threaten. Will get that down some but minor end of the first 4 is her very best hope unless she gets very lucky. 

Box 4 Couch Surfer 

The gun stayer in WA who has taken all before him so far since taking the step up to the staying trip. Has been afforded good draws which have aided his need to take a few steps before driving up but he delivers superior sectionals with a devastating mid race turn of foot that has seen him march to 9 victories on end. He led most of the way in his heat in 41.89 and gave his pre post backers no cause for concern as he held them comfortably. The acid test is here though and the move to box 4 will be another element he has to deal with. The start critical here and needs to offset the box to be given his best chance. Brilliant young stayer who will give this one huge shake. 

Box 5 Ariarne Bale

While her heat wasn’t full of genuine staying types, the way she went about her business showed why she is a Group 1 winner and at the top of her game right now. Found all sorts of trouble but balanced up and unleashed a serious set of sections to round up the opposition and race away to score easily. First run here so natural improvement will spell trouble for the opposition and while this is harder this week and the box is tricky, she only has to get a clear run to be very hard to hold out again. 

Box 6 Ballistic Ant

Ran out of her skin in her heat when she sped across to find the arm and give a huge sight for the majority of the trip. Just wilted a little in the run home when unable to hold off Ariarne Bale. This has come up too soon for her and her litter mates but she is progressive and has early speed and will again go forward here and try and cross and even then she will struggle to hold these off but she won’t give up and will be worth following for later.

Box 7 First Picked 

Victorian stayer who has competed at the top level a few times and while she has not been disgraced, she is just that level below the very best long distance dogs. She is a little one paced which means she will keep on coming but is not well served out wide here and will need some luck through the run to finish in the placings. Has a good strike rate however and can certainly be there at the end if the breaks do come. Will get past a few of these late so don’t leave out of exotics. 

Box 8 Speed Freak 

There is a smokie in every feature and here she is!! The better of the litter mates so far and can be the one that takes it up to these favoured runners. Can show early toe and even showed another element last week when coming from back to run 2nd behind Couch Surfer. Can get under 42 which will at least see her competitive and is capable of giving these a shock if she gets over with little fuss. Don’t dismiss her entirely.

RESERVES

No. 9 West On Jilliby 

Trainer has done a great job with this girl and while she lacks the class to win this, she will run on again if she gains a start and could hit minor end of the first 4. 

No. 10 Blessed Doll

Unlikely to get a start but hopelessly outclassed here and won’t trouble these if she does get a run. 

SUMMARY

As much interest and intrigue here as the Cup.  The big chance is 5 Ariarne Bale. Had she drawn in she would be almost unbeatable but the box means she may have to again work through the field and it will be a little harder this time but her heat win can’t be ignored. If she gets a look she’s the one. The 1 Stagger Out Lee is boxed to figure in another feature. Has all the skills to put these to the test and will only need a clear run to be hard to hold off. The local star 4 Couch Surfer meets his ultimate test since stepping up in trip. Will look to muster up early and if he takes the arm at any stage, will prove incredibly hard to run down. The 8 Speed Freak is the surprise packet. Can land closer this time and she will stay on right through the end. Could fill a place. There really is little between the main 3 and while i’ve been a vocal Couch Surfer fan and he can win, the draw now levels this up. Wonderful contest coming up and many questions about to be answered. 

Selections: 5-4-1-8

Race 1 – Perth Cup Consolation (2)

The secondary consolation with all these runners finishing 3rd in their respective heats and it’s as open as it gets here. I’m putting the 7 Rippin’ Tomahawk on top. His heat run was very good and has competed against these dog with success in the past. Will show pace out wide and could be hard to catch if he gets a clean arm. He looks a big hope. Chances to 1 Eagle Monelli who despite wanting wide, has a good record off the inside, 3 Block Chain as he is just so consistent and racing so well, and 8 Solidified who can handle the box and was good in his heat. Open race but competitive. 

Selections: 7-3-8-1

Race 2 – Galaxy Consolation 

Take your pick. Wouldn’t fall over if any of them won. Not a race that has a standout by any means. The fav in 6 Tsar Bell would win on two legs against these at his best but he is far from that. The 1 Pancake Monelli is an enigma but capable, the 8 Clifton Cruz will actually be hard to beat here and he can muster over and take a forward spot and can stay as well as most of these. The 7 Chair Man will go better this week and is a threat. However while I think the 7 and 8 go well, I will reiterate my midweek podcast comments and say the bet is 5 West On Jilliby. She doesn’t win often, hardly at all, but has a happy knack of charging home and hitting the frame most days against all opposition. We will put her on top but it will be a place heavy basis here for the collect.

Selections: 5-7-8-6

Race 4 – Perth Cup Consolation

Tremendous consolation with a field of very good dogs. It’s the VIC star however in box 2 Kelsey Bale that holds all the aces here. With the scratching of Crumble Monelli, she has been gifted the perfect trailing dog with Fire Cloud going into box 1 at this stage. He will give her the best run to the first turn possible and then he simply can’t go with her after that. Jimmy’s Decision in 3 wanting up the track and that spells big trouble for the rest. The 6 Amplified was quite good in her heat but again has a horror draw and crashes in badly at the start. Capable of winning if she led but not sure she can here. The 4 Quick Smart is the smokie. Getting better and better and his run in the heat was outstanding. Just needs to miss the 3 early. 7 Hurricane Taylor another who was superb in his heat and he gets a good run here with the 6 inside. Can surprise and come on at the finish. The 3 will get back here, the 5 is promising but badly boxed and the 8 can’t go with these. It’s the Kelsey Bale show if things go to plan here. 

Selections: 2-4-7-6 

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