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Digby’s AFL Round 4 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

West Coast v Richmond

Friday, Domain Stadium 6.10pm

Richmond have established an excellent record when travelling interstate in recent times. But the Tigers of the present are a long way removed from the previous editions, chiefly 2013-15, with coach Damien Hardwick forced to blood and persevere with many new faces because of the absence of quality performers. The ongoing availability of Brett Deledio has cruelled Richmond and the fact that the line-breaking Tiger remains in Melbourne for this match is a hammer blow to the visitors’ chances.

West Coast were made to work hard for their four points against Fremantle, with the loss of Aaron Sandilands in the second quarter an undeniable advantage. Nic Naitanui pounced on his opponent’s internal injuries to feed Luke Shuey, Matt Priddis and Andrew Gaff, who in turn gave Jack Darling an opportunity to back up his solid round-two display against Hawthorn. He duly did and helped offset the inaccuracy of Coleman medallist Josh Kennedy.

Alex Rance will almost certainly go to Kennedy, but the options West Coast have around him far outweigh those Richmond possess, even taking into account Jack Riewoldt and Ty Vickery, who is still guilty of being too inconsistent for a player of his experience. The Eagles remarked several times during the week that there were some sore bodies in the wake of the western derby, but they still should have too much run for the Tigers.

VERDICT: West Coast by 31 points.

Essendon v Geelong

Saturday, MCG 11.45am

Watching Essendon on a weekly basis was always going to be a hard task for Bombers fans this season. Ditto for the rest of the football community if John Worsfold is going to run with the game plan he did against Port Adelaide after half-time last weekend. The Bombers pushed a heap of bodies behind the football and worked very hard on clogging up the Power. It is an entirely understandable approach given the dearth of talent Worsfold has at his disposal.

Where Essendon’s tactic could be exposed is if they encounter sides boasting genuine beasts in and around stoppages. Geelong have two such players in Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood. If the dynamic duo are able to impose themselves at the clearances, the Cats will be particularly hard to halt. Geelong toyed with Brisbane at home last Sunday and it is hard to see anything different occurring against the undermanned Bombers.

Perhaps most interest is the fact that multiple Geelong premiership heroes James Kelly and Mathew Stokes are confronting their former teammates for the first time in their role as Essendon top-up players. Expect the gulf in class to be evident early and then maintained throughout.

VERDICT: Geelong by 79 points.

Hawthorn v St Kilda

Saturday, Aurora Stadium 12.10pm

St Kilda took a step forward last weekend when they harassed and outworked Collingwood to notch their first win for the season. It was a performance which pleased coach Alan Richardson, but his joy will be short lived. The Saints are faced with the arduous task of taking on Hawthorn at their Launceston fortress. Some might argue that the Hawks could take this match a little easy after their opening three rounds, but that is not in their DNA.

Hawthorn continue to be the benchmark, with their ability to rally late and nab the Western Bulldogs their best effort of 2016 to date. Captain Luke Hodge will miss again, but Jordan Lewis has proven an outstanding replacement and leads a midfield that is uncompromising and not expected to afford the likes of St Kilda trio Leigh Montagna, Jack Steven and David Armitage the same time and space Collingwood did.

Key forward pair Paddy McCartin and Nick Riewoldt received head knocks against the Magpies and have been monitored closely all week. Their presence is crucial to how St Kilda structure up, and eases the pressure on Josh Bruce. The Hawks rarely falter at Aurora Stadium and there is nothing to suggest their maiden appearance in Tasmania this year will be a hiccup.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 49 points.

Brisbane v Gold Coast

Saturday, Gabba 2.35pm

Brisbane coach Justin Leppistch knew very well heading into this season that he needed a lot of things to go right to improve the club’s win-loss record from 2015, Sadly for the one-time champion Lions key defender, injuries and a brutal draw have conspired to leave his side 0-3 and, as fate would have it, staring down the barrel of a fourth successive defeat.

Gold Coast have backed up a solid pre-season with three impressive victories. That said, the teams they have beaten — Essendon, Fremantle and Carlton — have combined for one win in the first three rounds. But you can only take care of what is in front of you and the Suns haven’t put a foot wrong in that regard. The form of Aaron Hall and Gary Ablett has been at a ridiculously high level and the beneficiaries have been forwards Tom Lynch and Jack Martin.

The Lions like what they see in young forward Josh Schache, but he is still a kid. Josh Walker is the senior spearhead at the Lions and Leppitsch would dearly love him to take a game by the scruff of the neck and shake it furiously. The Suns are still a little shaky in the back half, especially in the tall stocks, but their midfield, ball movement and forwards are picking up the slack.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 28 points.

Carlton v Western Bulldogs

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

The Western Bulldogs lost no admirers despite coming up short against Hawthorn and get the chance to rebound quickly at their preferred venue. The loss of captain Robert Murphy is a cruel blow and will test the club’s leadership and depth later in the season even though Luke Beveridge’s side has a number of quality half-backs.

Carlton have been competitive in all three matches this season, but their Achilles heel remains a lack of goal-scoring options. Levi Casboult marks as well as anyone in the competition, but continues to kick like a 300-game full-back. His inability to finish regularly drains the spirit from his teammates and ensures the opposition is never faced with the scoreboard pressure that can make it jumpy. That is an issue against the Bulldogs, who have shown their defensive prowess this season.

The Bulldogs might have been run over in the final term by the Hawks, but their third quarter was the best 30 minutes of their season. They won the stoppages, ran in waves and finished brilliantly. Caleb Daniels stepped up to the plate and gave the midfield another dimension. If they are anywhere near that level for an extended period in this match, they will hand the Blues a heavy defeat.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 51 points.

Adelaide v Sydney

Saturday, Adelaide Oval 5.40pm

In a round where there are some ordinary matches, this one looks like bucking the trend. The Crows have been terrific all season and will clearly provide Sydney with their biggest challenge to date. The unbeaten Swans have monstered their opponents at the stoppages in 2016, with Luke Parker, Kieren Jack, Josh Kennedy and Dan Hannebery in fine form and again signalling they will power their team’s premiership assault.

Adelaide withstood a spirited Richmond surge in the initial 10 minutes at Etihad Stadium and then pulled away to win like an elite side. Their rapid ball movement and elite kicking skills were on display from the outset, with the high-powered forward line taking full advantage. Tom Lynch was a late withdrawal due to the birth of his second child, but returns here and will slot in attack alongside Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins and Eddie Betts.

At the other end of the ground, Sydney will again lean on Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett, who returns to SA for the first time since his controversial departure from the Crows. The Swans have easily accounted for Adelaide and Port Adelaide in their three previous trips to Adelaide Oval, but there is strong inkling that first-year coach Don Pyke is building a very competent football side. The Crows have the weapons that can trouble Sydney.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 11 points.

GWS v Port Adelaide

Sunday, StarTrack Oval 11.10am

Greater Western Sydney enter their final match without the suspended Jeremy Cameron and can be well satisfied with how they have overcome the burden. A win here would leave them 2-2 and coach Leon Cameron satisfied given the round-one slip-up against Melbourne at the MCG. Conversely, if Port Adelaide are 2-2, Power mentor Ken Hinkley would have every reason to be disappointed.

The Power have mixed their form over the first three rounds, with the win over Essendon at home last weekend extremely unconvincing even taking into account the lack of proven personnel, notably hamstrung pair Hamish Hartlett and Chad Wingard. Their expected return here is a massive boost. Robbie Gray has carried the torch in their absence and will be a factor in much of the Giants’ planning. The Giants went toe-to-toe physically with Sydney and while they were outclassed late, their effort didn’t waver.

Port still don’t defend with the same intensity as they attack and Hinkley needs to get the balance right if he is to guide his side back to the finals. He will stress the importance of standing up to the physicality of GWS, chiefly the imposing Shane Mumford. His opposite number at Port, Matthew Lobbe, has struggled in 2016 and that could be telling in the result.

VERDICT: GWS by 16 points.

Collingwood v Melbourne

Sunday, MCG 1.20pm

Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley has a contract until the end of next season, but the 12-month extension he received earlier this year doesn’t free him up from intense scrutiny. The performance last weekend against St Kilda exposed the Magpies in several areas. Their inability to defend efficiently was stark and a lack of work rate after half-time against a depleted rival raised more than the odd eyebrow.

The criticism of Collingwood came a week after Melbourne had similar questions asked of them following a shock loss to Essendon. The Demons responded superbly against North Melbourne, their ball movement and finishing in front of goal something we haven’t seen a lot of previously from sides coached by Paul Roos. Unfortunately for Melbourne, they will be without Bernie Vince here because of a one-match suspension.

Buckley declared early in the week that his team needed to defend better and given Roos is happy to play a lock-down brand of football more than anything else, the goal-fest we saw both sides engage in in round three is unlikely to be witnessed here. The Magpies surely need to position Scott Pendlebury where the action is — the midfield. His influence across half-back was non-existent against St Kilda and if he can win the footy and distribute it like only he can in around the contests, Collingwood will be much better off.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 20 points.

North Melbourne v Fremantle

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 2.40pm

From a Fremantle perspective, there is never a good time to lose Aaron Sandilands. Period. Perhaps summing up the Dockers’ plight in 2016, the first week he will miss of several following a second-quarter collision with Nic Naitanui just so happens to be when his side locks horns with North Melbourne and their All-Australian big man Todd Goldstein. The big Roo is one of the finest tap ruckmen in the competition and showed his goal-kicking prowess against Melbourne last weekend, booting five goals.

Should Goldstein dominate against Jon Griffin, the Kangaroos engine room will fancy its chances of winning the battle against a Dockers unit missing captain David Mundy (calf). Nat Fyfe and Lachie Neale are extremely efficient in the contested-ball stakes, but the lack of support they have been afforded this season hasn’t helped Ross Lyon’s charges. Nor has the woeful field kicking and constant turnovers.

North will be well aware that Fremantle are battling some demons. Expect them to press up high in an attempt to force a swag of Dockers turnovers to give their dangerous forwards a fistful of opportunities. Whereas the Kangaroos have several key-marking targets forward of centre, Fremantle continue to rely heavily on Matthew Pavlich. Unless Fremantle take better care of the football and grasp their opportunities in front of goal, it’s hard to see them opening their account for 2016.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 28 points.

Digby Beacham is Deputy Sports Editor of The West Australian

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