Races

Scott Embry’s Sunday Northam Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Race 1

POPPYS ROSES should be breaking through here. She settled rearwards in a race where they absolutely walked through the middle stages (first 800m = 14L slower than average) and that was always going to make her job difficult trying to work into the race and wind up over the top of them. She’ll be better here second-up at 1600m and she should be too strong for this limited opposition. FARADIO is the logical danger. His three runs this campaign have all been solid. Really one paced but he’s honest. Lost a bit of momentum last start when having to duck and dive late around tiring horses. THANGOO led in a 1700m maiden at his second career outing and ran second to Dirty Habits. ADMIRE BELLE is racing like she’ll get a mile.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet – POPPYS ROSES WIN

Race 2

FIREARM only trialled fairly but really jumped out of the ground on race day to make a late lunge at Official Business. Thought that was a deep maiden that contained other talented types like Bourbonontherocks, Maybe Maybe Maybe and Saints N Sinners. So happy to follow that form line with a senior rider going on second-up. FAMED GIRL looked professional in her recent 950m trial and the first two got right away from the rest. Good indicator. GENERAL NAPOLEON had a set of blinkers go on at his second start and he really improved. With the winner (Roger) going on to win a 3 year old Saturday and the third horse (Call Me Invincible) winning well at Kal on Thursday the form looks good. SWING BAR ran third on debut behind Angel Express and Tex N Cee. They’re both extremely well related and above average types (half to Admiration Express and progeny of a Group One winner).

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – FIREARM WIN

Race 3

MISS PROFLIGACY is a Playing God filly on debut who heads straight to the races off only one single 1000m barrier trial. She ran second to Seven No Trumps, beating home Saints N Sinners and Majestic Mirage. Think all three of them will be winning races early in their careers and the way Mitch Pateman’s team is going, you’d be brave to take her on. The run isn’t recent, it’s sustained: Last 180 days going at 22.2% strike rate and 24.2% profit on turnover. FLASH OF FINA looks a speedy type. Boy Hill putting the 2kg claimer on to keep the weight down to 54kg is a smart move. Get the feeling he might be looking for the post late. MY TESTIMONY is a similarly speedy type but does tend to get the wobbles late. INCREDIBLE MR FOX finds a new home with David Harrison who goes straight to Pike.

Numbers: 11 – 9 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet – MISS PROFLIGACY WIN

Race 4

SPECIAL BLEND looked like the kind of filly who would head to the races and win on debut. She sat right up over the speed in her 950m trial and powered away to win by over 2L and while it was an entire trail field of debutantes so it can be hard to gauge the opposition taking her in isolation visually and time wise – she was outstanding. Expect she takes real beating here. UNIMANDO sat over the speed throughout at his return to racing and it took Treasured Legacy the whole straight to gun him down. Rocking In Vegas ran third and has since flashed home (again) into second. Won’t be a maiden for long. PHOENIX FLAMING was only 2L off Dawn Dancer in a 3 year old Saturday last start. FIERCE RED would have been popular last Sunday at Toodyay in a maiden handicap off a really quiet trial.

Numbers: 12 – 2 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet – SPECIAL BLEND WIN

Race 5

VIENNA CALLING went around in a 0MWLY most recently when afforded no luck and still fighting on to finish within 2.6L of Streak of God, Cable Rock and Streamlined. Far better placed into a C1 and maps to get all the favours. Prior run was fourth in a four-way photo and has been a model of consistency throughout her preparation. Deserves to win another.   QUICK COOKIE is coming out of a Class B Trophy Race win at Mingenew. It’s not a form line worth giving any value too, however, the first-up run in a Westspeed Platinum was really good beaten only 1.5L behind Let’s Talk, Fantaxtic and Lucky I Am and last preparation she placed in a pair of C3 1400s. Don’t think she’s out of this. PLAYING FREE can march his way across to park up over the speed. JAVELIN STRIKE has been nibbled at in betting recently with a 3kg claimer. Now has Pike.

Numbers: 5 – 6 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet – VIENNA CALLING WIN

Race 6

BOUSSAC (yes, Boussac) has found a winnable race. He has actually been going really well this campaign and it’s worth noting that last preparation he won fifth-up and sixth-up. Did I give him life 12 months ago? Yes. Am I pulling him out of the bin and tipping him here? Yes. Am I proud of it? No. Feels wrong but he’s going good. RORYS REVENGE was a subtle example of Pike’s strength. He never travelled the winner at any stage in that race and yet you just knew from the top of the home straight he was somehow going to run down poor Ruthless Bloom. Big gangly type who has had issues but is starting to repay the patience of connections. ACTA NON VERBA was well found in betting last start and loomed large. Should be ready now. VANCOUVER STORM was really good last start. Copped 5 points for it but at least it’ll make getting into fields easier!

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet – BOUSSAC WIN

Race 7

AZABELLE has turned a corner. Since Jason Li jumped aboard she’s had no luck, but she’s fought on bravely. Wide throughout when third to Cable Rock, wide throughout when third to Vampi Queen. If she jumps cleanly here, she can lead against the fence and her only two career wins were on speed all the way. Open race and one of many chances. FLYING SOUTH deserves a crack in the metropolitan/provincial region. Whether he’s staying with Tiarnna or heading back down south we’ll wait and see, but talent wise he’s easily good enough to win a C5 and even a 60+ Grad. DON’T TRUST JUDAS had Decoration beaten until he saw the Western Racepix camera at the finishing post. Blinkers off, visors on, hopefully gobbling them up right at the perfect time so he can’t have another think about it. SHOW THE WAY is 1 from 27. He’s lengths better than that strike rate ability wise. Have liked his trials, just another one who is hard to trust.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet – AZABELLE EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

12

2,3,4,5,6

1,2,4,5,10

1,2,5,7,8,11




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