Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

More Group 1 racing at Randwick on Saturday, yet another top-class card ahead of us. Unfortunately the weather doesn’t look promising with rain forecast Saturday, how much? Who knows, BOM suggest somewhere between 5-20mm from late morning… monitor closely. We get things underway with an 1800m Midway where I’m confident the winner comes from the pair at the top of the page (1) COLUMBUS & (2) DORADUS. The former is lightly raced, in form & with plenty of upside whilst the later likes to get out & roll along in front, map suggests he’s likely to be left alone & able to dictate, will that be the case? At the early market odds we can have something small on both. (5) ALL STAR in the mix, just a query running out a strong 1800m imo.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet: Backing top 2 selections to win (small bets).

Race 2

Always a very exciting time of year with the first of the new season 2yo’s hitting the track. The boy’s go first in the Breeders Plate, out of the recent trial session (1) CAPITANO, (4) FIJI, (8) NONU & (9) PROVERB all ran well, unfortunately FIJI & PROVERB come out which certainly narrows things down! Drawn well (8) NONU gets the nod, (6) LEAD THE CHARGE worth including at odds, just needs things to pan out from the wide draw however the shrinking field helps!

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet: Monitor betting moves.

Race 3

The fillies get their chance to show off in the Gimcrack, certainly bigger numbers. Thought (4) EVERLASTING GRACE & (12) SHEZABLAZE were the best performances out of the recent trial session. The former ran a close second however could have run past the winner if asked to whilst the later went from barrier to box in very good time, does have to deal with a wide draw though. (8) PROVATA clocked in third in her heat, she was put under plenty of pressure though.

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 13 – 8

Suggested Bet: Monitor betting moves.

Race 4

Topweight (1) GENESIS RUNNER the one to beat here on recent form. Terrific effort first up in the Up & Coming he then went to the Ming Dynasty & kept coming nicely into a close fourth beaten just over a length. The rise to a mile looks made to order & from the good draw he should get the right run. (4) WONKA won his maiden in good style last start, gets an additional 50m, will that be enough? Happy to give (2) SAVAGRAM another chance, suspect they won’t lead this time around? (3) VALLICE comes up from Victoria & is in the right hands.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: GENESIS RUNNER TO WIN.

Race 5

Good sized numbers going around here over the mile. The obvious is the third up (16) UNLEESHING & I get the appeal, peaking, perfect gate, tumbles in weight, she does rise plenty in class though & taking even money doesn’t sound like much value to me. (9) THE MONA LISA shoots for 4 straight, 5 from her past 6, her record this track & trip is outstanding & we’re getting double figures in early markets, I’d rather be with her. (18) CHISPA may need this one however won’t be far away, look for her to be closing in late.

Numbers: 9 – 16 – 10 – 18

Suggested Bet: THE MONA LISA EACH-WAY.

Race 6

The Group 1 Flight Stakes for the 3yo fillies, only the 7 acceptors which is disappointing, perhaps a similar race at Flemington over the same trip this afternoon has something to do with that. 5 of the 7 come through the Tea Rose run here a fortnight back & I’ve been talking up (2) STRIKING ALIBI ever since, she had no luck whatsoever buried away on the fence before weaving home well. However, I’m about to commit the cardinal sin & change my mind as I just feel she might be vulnerable stepping to 1600m whereas (3) GLOBAL GOAL will lap it up. All of her runs have been very solid to & through the line. Certainly no knock (1) BANGKOK HOTTIE who beat the both of them in that quickly run Tea Rose & she was the one parked up closest to the lead.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: GLOBAL GOAL TO WIN (small bet).

Race 7

The Group 2 Metropolitan sees (7) AETHELWULF shooting for 5 straight & there’s no way in the world I’ll be taking him on, in fact if I was having an early Melbourne Cup punt it would be him. Dominant winning easily by big margins on all occasions he’ll once again settle on speed & although not 100% proven at 2400m his Newcastle Cup win over 100m less suggested it won’t be an issue. Import (1) THE EUPHRATES has settled in very well, solid in the Chelmsford he led throughout to win stepping up to 2000m last start running strong time in the process. (4) GREEN SPACES now gets to the right trip, look for sharp improvement.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: AETHELWULF TO WIN.

Race 8

The Group 1 Epsom, one of the ‘big miles’ run in Australia. Plenty of interest around the Kiwi mare (6) WELL WRITTEN who is yet to be beaten at her 7 career starts across the ditch, two of those over today’s trip & she’s been dominant at both. Should the rain arrive that’s not likely to bother her with 4 of those wins on soft ground yet to see anything worse. I’ll back a couple being (1) CEOLWULF & (3) AUTUMN BOY, the former is a star, multiple Group 1 winner whose last couple have been cracking efforts, is he looking for further now? Maybe, however he’s still more than capable staying at this mile trip. (3) AUTUMN BOY is third up, he’s landed a couple of Group 1 features at the same stage of his past two preps & chased home Sheza Alibi the latest, handy form line!

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 6 – 17

Suggested Bet: Backing top 2 selections to win.

Race 9

Two weeks out from The Everest, this is the main lead-up for those looking to give the Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising a run for his money in a fortnight’s time & what a field we have! I’ll go with the obvious & that’s the Group 1 winning mare (10) TEMPTED however I won’t be lining up to take the red figures currently on offer. That’s no knock on her, it’s the calibre of the opposition! (3) HEADWALL beat all bar Tempted first up, then not far away in The Shorts which was a strangely run race, peaking now & we know has a big finish. Include (4) NINJA whilst (8) GRAFTERBURNERS is worth throwing in, should have finished closer in The Shorts.

Numbers: 10 – 3 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 10

Big numbers to go around in this closing race over the 1200m. Maybe something each-way the resuming (15) JIMMY RECARD who didn’t just win his first-up run last prep, he won his first three outings going from a maiden to a metro Saturday & then a Group 3. In good hands he’s a recent easy trial winner who could be ready to go fresh once again. (14) NEPO BABY should improve back to this level & with added fitness whilst first up winner (13) THE BLADE scored dominantly, his second up record not so good though.

Numbers: 15 – 14 – 13 – 10

Suggested Bet: JIMMY RECARD EACH-WAY.




Recent Articles