Races

Scott Embry’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

SMOKEY MOUNTAIN makes his debut off the back of a couple of impressive trials. Trialled in December with blinkers and won by over 2L after chasing down a high speed leader and then trialled recently in May without blinkers and cruised to an all the way victory under little riding. Shades on for his debut and drawn in barrier 1 to kick through and hold them out. Looks like he’ll take running down on debut. MIA GUSTO trialled like a filly who would take beating on debut. She’ll position up over the speed and should be right there in the finish. EL PATRON returns a gelding and wasn’t asked much in a recent trial behind a sharp debut winner. TRIGGER FINGER looks speedy. Expecting him to jump and run.

Numbers: 5 – 11 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – SMOKEY MOUNTAIN WIN

RACE 2

UNIVERSAL PLAYBOY and JEANELLA both trialled on 30 May, both lead in their trials, both won their trails and were both probably the two horses you wanted to follow to the races from the trials. They clash here and given the fact UNIVERSAL PLAYBOY is drawn in barrier 1 and ran significantly sharper time in his trial win going to side up with him on debut. Being a Universal Ruler there shouldn’t be any issues getting through the soft6 and he looks professional. JEANELLA comes from a family of winners that the Durrant family have raced with success and she looks a ready made race horse. GOLD KEEPER drops out of a Saturday SWP into a maiden and held his own behind Rumour Says and Revitup. WEAPONIZE was a great trial but is drawn really awkwardly.

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – UNIVERSAL PLAYBOY WIN

RACE 3

PONYO returns first-up no trial and looks like she’ll get a nice stalking run tracking the every move of fleet footed filly Dance Session. First-up last campaign she was a massive run into third behind Liwa and Spin The Knife, beating home the likes of Ruthless Tycoon, Sniparoochy and Flying Missile. If she runs to anywhere near that level she should be hard to hold out. DANCE SESSION is being ridden for pure speed and Mitch Pateman, Holly Watson and The Keth are reaping the rewards. Career high weight, toughest opposition since joining the new yard. She’ll need to be at her best. ASTRAPE trialled super but has 60.5kg and barrier 9 of 9. May do it too tough. EXTRA SECRET may need a touch further but is worth following.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet – PONYO WIN

RACE 4

FRIGID sat three deep the trip on debut at Northam and kept coming to the line, she then went around $1.50 and was able to get the job done in a 1000m maiden at Belmont in November. Immediately tipped out and resumes for her new trainer Michael Grantham. She trialled super, she’ll land in a lovely spot in running and this is not a deep C1. Looks hard to beat on return. OH SOPHIA got a long way out of her ground behind Dance Session last start. Thought she stuck to her task well late and wasn’t fully extended. Keep safe. PRINCE OF GUELPH has his first start for Grant Williams and his recent trial was much better than it reads on paper. Probably on the lower end of his distance range but a capable type. ROGUES POINT can find the front and get it cheap.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet – FRIGID WIN

RACE 5

KENTUCKY BLUE has turned a corner in the last few starts. Seems to have his confidence back after falling five starts ago and it’s hard to knock his last two efforts. Peeled a lot of ground off The Admiral late two starts ago and then sat three deep from the 1000 last time out in a fast run mile behind Ataboy Charlie. Drops 1.5kg and should settle handier than main rival and likely favourite Awesome Rival. AWESOME RIVAL finally produced the run that most expected either first-up or second-up. The way she ran through the line suggests that she’ll eat up a mile and the mare she beat in her maiden toyed with them at her next start. BENT LEG BORIS gets every chance from the inside draw. LADY OF BABYLON was a handy run last start in a C3.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – KENTUCKY BLUE WIN

RACE 6

FLOWER IN THE WIND really caught the eye first-up in a high rating 3yo 0MWLY at 1300m. She drops from a 54+ into a 50+, gets out to a more suitable 1650m, Chris Parnham sticks and she looks like charging at them late. Seduce Me won a 3 year old 62+ on Saturday and many will join in the chorus tipping Mahaleo later in the Wednesday Belmont program. Looks the right form and she’ll get back regardless of where she’s drawn in the line. MONEY FOR OLD ROPE looks the danger. Proven wet tracker, down to 55.5kg after the claim for a noted front running apprentice and should get things his own way out in front. RED DWARF had no luck last Thursday at Pinjarra when well supported in betting. DASH OF BRANDY is far better suited in this than recent Saturday races behind Zephyra and The Velvet Queen.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 1 – 10

Suggested Bet – FLOWER IN THE WIND WIN

RACE 7

DAZZING DANE’s racing pattern makes her a risky commodity but she’s clearly the mare with the most upside in this event. She’ll get back and she’ll always be at the mercy of the track/race pattern but if they’re making ground out wide then she’s more than capable of gunning these down. You’d need to see them making ground and you’d want eachway odds. MISS FIELD maps to get a lovely run behind a genuine tempo (Ultimate Command, Niigata, Global Conflict and Main Engine). Her trial was solid and she was a first-up winner last preparation. OCEANZARA clearly has above average ability. Can find traffic and bad luck in her races from time to time. NIIGATA will punch forward and his honest.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – DAZZLING DANE EACHWAY

RACE 8

MAHALEO trialled really well for his return to racing and was able to get a lovely run up the cutaway inside of red hot favourite Hammarmill, beating home subsequent winner Seduce Me (and hopefully Flower In the Wind). While the 3 year old 0MWLY races and the C3s are handicapped the same (both 54+) more often then not the 3 year old form is a length or two stronger. See no reason why he won’t go very close to making it two from two this campaign. ZOUDINI descended upon them first-up in WA and will look to reproduce from near last here. BORN TO TALK was tough when grinding down War Hymn with 60kg last start. LONG WEEKEND went around $3.70 in the same race Born To Talk went round $8.50 and meets him 1.5kg better. Improver.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 3 – 9

Suggested Bet – MAHALEO WIN

RACE 9

OUTSPOKEN LAD picks himself in the last. He finished fifth in the JC Roberts 2.5L behind Rokanori and Trix Of The Trade, finished third behind Alaskan God in the Melvista and fourth behind Alaskan God in the WATC Derby. Resumed in the Raconteur when 3.5L off Devoted and Rokanori in a race run 6L faster than 3 year Listed average. He’s a soft 7 winner, he’s back into a 60+ and he’s only got 56.5kg after the claim. Punters will be backing Taj Dyson to stay out of trouble. ROCKON TOMMY had been building and building until last start when he was caught up behind tiring runners and dragged out of the race. Going well again. STREET FAIR grows a leg in the wet and has been solid at both runs back. JUICING CARROTS might need another run or two but is suited in this grade.

Numbers: 2 – 10 – 11 – 1

Suggested Bet – OUTSPOKEN LAD WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,4,7,10
2,3,5
3,4,8,9
2

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