Races

Chances are you’re about to lose.

For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Andrew Hawkins’ Royal Ascot Preview: Day 4

RACE 1

Day 4 begins with the G3 Albany Stakes for the two-year-old fillies over six furlongs (a1200m). It has only been around since 2002 but it has quickly become one of the most important juvenile fillies’ races of the week. Meditate, Porta Fortuna and Fairy Godmother all went on to make their mark at a higher level, while last year’s winner Venetian Sun – who runs later on Friday’s card – confirmed herself one of the better fillies of her generation. Compared to the Queen Mary, this is usually less about raw speed and more about future substance. SUN GODDESS heads the market after a big win at the Curragh last time out when stepped up in trip. The maiden she won has produced Group 1 horses before and she improved markedly at start two, having been green and raw on debut. Any further improvement and she should be going very close. French filly VALENTINA BELLA has to handle this quicker ground but she’s done nothing wrong in two starts to date. She’s tough and while she might not have the quality of some of her rivals, her tenacity and precocity might get her into the finish as is. LIBERTANGO and DARK ISSUE are both entering as the winners of their only respective starts. Libertango looked a ready-made filly at Leicester while Dark Issue looked to have more upside at Goodwood. Both are chances.

Numbers: 21-24-14-5

Suggested Bet: Sun Goddess WIN


RACE 2

The G1 Commonwealth Cup is the youngest of Royal Ascot’s Group 1 races, having only been introduced in 2015, but it has already established itself as the defining race for three-year-old sprinters. Run over six furlongs (a1200m), it gives the younger sprinters their own target before they are asked to take on the older horses. Muhaarar, Caravaggio, Advertise, Perfect Power and Shaquille have all won it, while last year’s winner Time For Sandals was a reminder that this race can still throw up a surprise. Hopefully, no such surprises await this year. Last year’s Albany Stakes winner VENETIAN SUN returns to the track and trip for the first time since. She was a sensational sprinter, winning the G2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes and G1 Prix Morny (defeating Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Gstaad in the latter) before she tasted defeat up in trip. She was tried at a mile when finishing midfield in the 1,000 Guineas but, dropped back in trip for the G2 Sandy Lane Stakes, she proved just how electric she is at these shorter trips. She is the one to beat. ALBERT EINSTEIN was the winter favourite for the 2,000 Guineas but a disappointing first run in March and an even second outing in April – both over seven furlongs – saw him instead drop back to six. He was again beaten in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes but he led his group home up the centre. He’s capable and yet he is racking up convictions at a rate of knots. This is D-Day for him. WISE APPROACH, winner of the G1 Middle Park Stakes last year and only a half-length off Venetian Sun in the Prix Morny, was behind Albert Einstein in the Carnarvon. Charlie Appleby’s horses have improved into Royal Ascot this week and he’s one who can take another step forward. Include Group 2 winner ZANTHOS in exotics as she drops to this trip for the first time.

Numbers: 21-1-15-22

Suggested Bet: Venetian Sun WIN


RACE 3

The Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes is the older-horse equivalent of the King George V Stakes, a mile-and-a-half handicap for the stayers and middle-distance types. It is the sort of race that can interest Australian eyes because it often features horses who could profile as future Cups or spring prospects, even if they are not always obvious at the time – think Deakin, Sea King, Okita Soushi, Just Fine, Le Don De Vie, Durston and Downdraft in recent years. The Queen won it with Blueprint in 1999, while Willie Mullins added it to his Royal Ascot collection last year with subsequent Ebor and Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Ethical Diamond. Wathnan Racing looks to have an incredibly strong hand here. OPPORTUNITY is the ride of James McDonald, coming off a big win at Carlisle last start after finishing third at the track and trip when fresh after 11 months. He defeated Group 1 performer Rahiebb this time last year and he looks to have room to manoeuvre at the ratings. Wathnan’s number one rider James Doyle jumps on HOPEWELL ROCK for the first time after finishing third at Newmarket last time out. He rarely runs a bad race, the only blot on his formbook coming on heavy ground, and he will be competitive. PLAGE DE HAVRE has an awkward draw and might be on too high a mark but he’s a chance if Oisin Murphy can find a back to follow. WARRANT HOLDER is owned by King Charles III and Queen Camilla. The regally bred Frankel gelding has won his last two starts and might be bound for Group company in time.

Numbers: 11-10-6-4

Suggested Bet: Opportunity WIN


RACE 4

The G1 Coronation Stakes is the fillies’ equivalent of the St James’s Palace Stakes, a round-mile contest for the three-year-olds. It often brings together the winners or placegetters from the English, Irish and French 1,000 Guineas, so it can settle the pecking order among the Classic fillies before they either step up in trip or tackle older mares. Alpha Centauri, Winter, Tahiyra and Porta Fortuna have all won this recently, while Cercene’s 33-1 upset last year showed it is not always as predictable as the formbook suggests. This year we get a rematch between English 2,000 Guineas winner TRUE LOVE and Irish 2,000 Guineas winner PRECISE, while German 1,000 Guineas heroine TIMEFORSHOWCASING and last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf victress BALANTINA add even more depth. Really, though, it is about which of the two Ballydoyle fillies comes out on top. The market has Precise on top as the winner of five of her seven starts and the pick of Ryan Moore. She was beaten five lengths by True Love at Newmarket but turned that around to run over the top of her and put two and a half lengths up at the Curragh. True Love, meanwhile, was a more speedy filly who has somewhat surprisingly proven herself at a mile this campaign. There is not much beween the two of them and perhaps True Love can get first run on Precise back around a bend. She gets the nod. Balantina has not raced since causing an upset at Del Mar in October, but that was by design and trainer Donnacha O’Brien said early in the year the Coronation Stakes would be her first race. She could be one to jump out of the ground at three and so she’s one to keep safe. Next best is MOON TARGET, also making her three-year-old debut; Sir Mark Prescott is as shrewd as they come and she was only three-quarters of a length off Precise at Goodwood last year so don’t discount her.

Numbers: 9-4-1-3

Suggested Bet: True Love WIN


RACE 5

The Sandringham Stakes is the fillies’ version of the Britannia, a straight-mile handicap for the three-year-olds. It can be a brutally competitive race because many of these fillies are still lightly raced, unexposed and open to sudden improvement. It is not always a race that produces an obvious future Group 1 horse, but it is often a very good guide to fillies who can win better handicaps or Listed races later in the year. The market is wide open, as you’d hope in a competitive handicap, and finding the winner does appear tricky. GLYFADA crosses the Irish Sea after winning her last two starts. She won her maiden over approximately 2100m at Naas in April before dropping back to the mile for a stylish win at Killarney last time out. She has the right mix of speed and stamina to tackle the Ascot mile and, with only 8st 13lb (56.7kg) behind a 9st 9lb (61.2kg) topweight, she looks dangerous down the stands side. LYRICS OF LIFE is drawn the same side coming off a third in a novice at the track and trip last month. Her second to Oaks runner-up Legacy Link at a mile looks good now and there are a couple of factors that could see the race play out in her favour. SEET is another coming in off two wins, both at or about a mile. Ryan Moore jumps aboard for the first time and there’s little doubt her rating is heading higher. ZOOMING steps up to a mile; it remains to be seen if it suits her but she is capable.

Numbers: 12-24-7-6

Suggested Bet: Glyfada EACH WAY


RACE 6

The G2 King Edward VII Stakes, sometimes called the Ascot Derby, is for the three-year-old colts over a mile and a half (a2400m). It is often the consolation race for those who ran at Epsom without winning, but that does not mean it lacks quality. Nathaniel, Old Persian and Japan all won this before becoming Group 1 winners, while Pyledriver developed into a top-class international horse after taking it in 2020. It remains one of the key post-Derby races for the middle-distance three-year-olds. Derby favourite Benvenuto Cellini, who was controversially declared a non-runner at Epsom, was expected to line up here but was not an acceptor. Instead, Ballydoyle sends out CAUSEWAY who steps up from 2000m after winning the G3 Gallinule Stakes last start. He’s certainly a chance if he stays the trip, but it might be worth taking a chance with Derby also-ran ANCIENT EGYPT back on top of the ground. He was beaten 13 lengths by Christmas Day in the Derby, but before that he had won the Listed Newmarket Stakes handily. His pedigree suggests it was not the mile and a half that was the issue at Epsom but the deteriorating ground. Well worth another chance. WATER TO WINE is coming off two 2200m wins by big margins. He could be anything and it is hard to know how to line him up. Next best is Italian Derby winner VENETIAN PRINCE, although whether a mile and a half on firm ground will suit is another question entirely.

Numbers: 1-2-6-5

Suggested Bet: Ancient Egypt WIN


RACE 7

The Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap is another of the newer races introduced during the COVID era, but it has earned its place quickly. It is a five-furlong handicap for three-year-olds, which makes it a very different test to the Commonwealth Cup earlier on the card. This is pure speed, but because it is a handicap restricted to the Classic generation, it can also be a race for sprinters who are still improving quickly. JAZL drops to five furlongs for the first time after winning his last two starts over six furlongs, the most recent in course record time at Leicester. He was raised 10 points for that effort but he might still be ahead of the handicapper. IPANEMA QUEEN was a Listed winner over this trip at Dundalk last year and was not far from King Charles III Stakes winner Mission Central earlier in the season. She’s one who should be suited by firm ground and she should be in the right position to capitalise. SIMPLIFY doesn’t know how to run a bad race and has good bits of form throughout her career. The concern is that she has gone up another five points on her last start without winning, so she strikes this competitive handicap at the wrong time. Still, she’s got upside – especially next season. BACIO is fascinating as an American-trained runner in this race. Given the Americans don’t have handicap ratings, it’s hard to tell if the British handicapper has him right or wrong. He must be included in exotics.

Numbers: 13-17-11-6

Suggested Bet: Jazl EACH WAY

Market Market