Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

WORK IN PROGRESS has trialled like a different animal to what we saw in her first preparation. Her trial leading and beating stablemate and debut winner One Cool Gal was effortless and then at her second trial she went back and Rawiller had her in neutral from the top of the straight. If the favourite has any level of vulnerability think it’ll be Work In Progress who guns her down so considering she’ll be close to three times her quote we’ll tip for the upset. RUMOUR SAYS was highly impressive on debut when gunning down sharp 1000m filly Revitup. She rises 3kg up to 57kg here and likely has to punch across to take up a forward position over the speed but it’s hard to not be impressed with what she produced at her only outing. FEELS PLAYFUL looks a jump, run type. EBONY’S ACE hasn’t had much go her way so far.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet – WORK IN PROGRESS WIN

RACE 2

SLUICE BOX and RELIABLE STAR both come through the same race, both drop 2kg and both were equally as unlucky in the run. SLUICE BOX importantly reunites with Shaun McGruddy who seems to ride him far better than anyone else in WA. For a horse who can be notoriously hard to catch his last two wins have been with McGruddy on his back. Think he can settle a pair in front of Reliable Star and out sprint her. RELIABLE STAR looks ready to win. She’s a soft6 winner, she’s a proven stayer and CJP jumps on at the right time. BARAMAGIC is always a chance in this grade. BOLD SUCCESS might need to lead early to ensure he can stay off the fence.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – SLUICE BOX WIN

RACE 3

GLAMOUR PACKED finished half a length off Snippy Miss and beat home Arnie’s Boy first-up. Meets Snippy Miss 2kg and Arnie’s Boy 5.5kg better at the weights, is drawn a better gate and is a well proven wet tracker (placed 3x on Soft6 and once on Soft7). She went to a 60+ Graduation last start and held her own after making a run at them at the top of the straight. Jordan Turner should enjoy a nice soft run close handy to the speed and she’s the kind of mare who always runs an eachway race. SNIPPY MISS is incredibly deep into a preparation that has now spanned over 13 months of racing. Remarkable mare who continues to run well. Dangerous with a late split. ARNIE’S BOY is hard to catch but when Paul Harvey last rode him they jumped out of trees to back him and he won accordingly. I’M PRETTY is a fresh mare who is always hard to hold out in this grade.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – GLAMOUR PACKED EACHWAY

RACE 4

SNIPAROOCHY was attacked left, right and centre last week as Red Fifty Three pulled himself to the front. Thought she did a super job to pop to the breeze, put him away at the top of the straight and then go down fighting in the last 100m. Backs up off 7 days, drops back to 1200m and can park on My Marlaina here who will take her to the top of the straight. She’s a nice filly. COBBANCO is perennially underrated in the market. He comes from a small stable but he hasn’t run a bad race in his life. He’ll blend in midfield with cover and can sustain a run. COLOSSAL was well supported in betting last start dropping back to 1000m. He was massive in defeat when held tight until the 150. Barrier makes things tough. HARDLY EVER should get the run she needs and was a solid effort against some top quality types in the Raconteur.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – SNIPAROOCHY WIN

RACE 5

GINGER GREEN is a super honest and consistent type who will go round at double figures. Thought his effort two starts ago behind Atlantis Beach in this grade in what has turned into a relatively good form reference (Canny Jack, Mojo Rhythm, Pambella, Sluice Box) was good when caught up behind tiring runners. Three deep the trip last start and kept coming. Paul Harvey jumps on, can track Native Chimes and loom at the top of the straight. GALACTIC STORM is the best horse in the race with the best form in the race. Given a freshen up after the gaps closed on him in a 66+ mile last time out. Likely to concede them a fair head start but can reel off a big L600. STYLAX is emerging through the grades nicely. CONQUERED ZONE a good fresh horse and the trial wasn’t as bad as it looks on paper.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 2 – 12

Suggested Bet – GINGER GREEN EACHWAY

RACE 6

WATCH ME DANCE hasn’t won a race for a long time but this looks about as good a chance as she has had in the last 12 months. Finished third in the Sheila Gwynne with 60kg behind Amasenus, finished second (at level weights) to God Has Chosen and then carried 59kg after a claim and settled rearward in what is expected to be one of the hottest form reference races behind Otheorneson, a 72+ 1400 run 8.5L faster than average. Shaun McGruddy back on, beautiful gate and eachway. THAT’S FUNNY AZ will roll to the top and is always hard to run down when he gets into a rhythm. STARTRADE proved himself in the metro area last start. Anyone who follows country racing has been calling for him to head to Perth for months and he can win again with the right run. ALL DAY SESSION going super but the bars on is a red flag.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet – WATCH ME DANCE EACHWAY

RACE 7

OTHERONESON, DEVOTED, ROKANORI, SEARCHIN’ ROC’S. Unbelievably good race and expecting in time that all four of them will find themselves in Group company. On any given year they would each have claims as being the standout 3 year old but unfortunately they’re all around in the same season. Could go any of the four ways but will side with DEVOTED who can sit leader’s back (whoever that may be) and enjoy the run of the race. He’s fool proof and come back to racing bigger and better again this preparation. OTHERONESON is the X-Factor horse who has been belting the older horses. Had no right to win last start. ROKANORI is versatile and Paul Harvey gets back on and Grant Williams calls on the winkers. SEARCHIN’ ROC’s is the weight horse at Set Weights and after making a mess of the start she was huge on top of the speed in the Raconteur.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – DEVOTED WIN

RACE 8

NO APOLOGY is another who comes from the hot Otheroneson times race and he looks about ready. Had a pair of 4kg claimers aboard first-up and second-up and then improved sharply third-up when the senior rider went on. Is a wet tracker so if the predicted rains do arrive on Friday and Saturday he’ll be well suited. Good speed in this (Stay Safe, Savage One, Bombay Style, Pat’s Got Sass) and No Apology can get a nice run forward of midfield with cover. BILLY RAY has turned a corner. Back on the bandwagon. Maps well and has a turn of foot. STAY SAFE was good first-up behind Devoted and then slightly disappointing in the Raconteur. Can bounce back. CRESCENT CITY goes super on the back-up.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – NO APOLOGY EACHWAY

RACE 9

SNEAKY CHANCE has been a little costly at her last three outings but she’s still run well in defeat. Two starts ago (this grade, this distance) went around a popular $2.90 favourite, got a long way back in traffic and then was held up at the top of the straight. Last start back in her own age group was caught in the breeze in an ugly sit and sprint. If she can split the difference map wise she should go close in this. NOWHITEFLAG is a high speed beast. The harder and faster they go the better he is suited. Paul Harvey’s booking catches the attention. BEADS is a 1000m specialist and Shaun McGruddy knows exactly how to ride him. WARM ‘N’ FUZZY hasn’t run a single bad race for Ash Maley. Going super.

Numbers: 11 – 2 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – SNEAKY CHANCE EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

4,5,6,8,9
1,2,3,6
1,2,5,8,11,13
1,2,11

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