Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

YALLINGUP GIRL and YARRALEA are no stars, and while consistent both are struggling to break through and win races, however, this looks a great opportunity for the Parnham pair to pinch a low grade Saturday event. YALLINGUP GIRL finished a narrow second behind Princess In Red last start and the third horse Forever Classic was well supported when winning at Belmont on Wednesday to frank the form. Same weight here but gets the services of Brad Parnham. YARRALEA loomed the winner in this grade two starts back but couldn’t quite reel in Boab Boy and Full Of Merit. Gets every chance off 7 days. FAST FLICKER won well at Esperance but the barrier and map make this tougher. ARNIE’S BOY is going alright.

Numbers: 8 – 6 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – YALLINGUP GIRL WIN

RACE 2

INFLUENCING just continues to raise the bar this campaign. He’s now won a maiden, a C1, a 3 year old 0MWLY and now tackles a 3 year old Saturday race. Has to again lump 59.5kg but in a race without a stack of tempo he should find himself parked right up over the top of the speed and from what we’ve seen this preparation he’ll keep finding and fighting under pressure. PREMIUM GIRL comes into this 5 weeks between runs after beating the older horses in a 60+ Graduation over a mile last start. Rises up 4.5kg in weight at the same time. COOL MEMORY was scratched 10 days ago and has bars on. Going well but has to be a red flag. SIBERIAN SIREN similarly hasn’t raced for over a month and rises 5kg and 200m.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – INFLUENCING EACHWAY

RACE 3

BRUCE ALMIGHTY tends to pick up a race each and every preparation. This time in he has had 11 starts and finished in the money at 5 of them, including last start this track/distance/grade when run down in the concluding stages by red hot mare Bonjoy. He drops 1kg in weight, he rides the speed and he should get conditions to suit. He’s holding form and he’s going to get every chance. SISU WARRIOR put the writing on the wall first-up and then took full advantage of the on-speed dominance at Bunbury second-up. He can roll to the breeze outside Bruce Almighty or even look to cross him. Danger. AUTUMN REBEL missed the run last week in the JC Roberts and has bars on. ROKANORI ran a ripper at his first start for the new stable.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – BRUCE ALMIGHTY EACHWAY

RACE 4

BOOTS LIKE BRUCE put on a galloping exhibition last start at Bunbury. Always going to be hard to quantify just how advantageous the inside pad was that day (9 races and there was only 1 winner from ‘offspeed’) but visually and to the clock it was the performance of a horse who would be making his way through the grades this preparation. He’ll jump, he’ll look to hold out Rogue’s Point early and from there he’ll start to up the tempo from the 600. OLY’S CHOICE is in career best form but he is just having nothing go his way. Three back wide and huge, two back wide/rearward and huge, last start missed the kick and huge. Deserves to win one. DESENNEA is first-up but can sprint well fresh. ROGUE’S POINT looks to do it tougher here than recent wins.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – BOOTS LIKE BRUCE WIN

RACE 5

KARALEE ROCKS is a nice mare returning home to WA. She won three from five before heading to Lindsey Smith in Victoria where she won a BM64 with 61kg first-up no trial and then ran honest races at BM78 level. Her trials have been excellent and hopefully she can be ridden a pair closer from a favourable gate. ULTIMATE COMMAND like Boots Like Bruce and others took advantage of the opportunity afforded to her at Bunbury on a day where it was near impossible to make ground, however, a big leveller to that is the likelihood that it will be on speed at Ascot on Saturday with the 20km/h Easterly forecast all day. REGAL STATUE and VAMPI AT PLAY are both going super but are unlikely to be suited by the pattern of the day.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – KARALEE ROCKS WIN

RACE 6 

WILD BELLE won the Miss Andretti Stakes 66 days ago beating three of her seven rivals in the process. Of those three she meets two of them better at the weights here for beating them home Gemma’s Son (she meets 4kg better), Real Danger (she meets 1kg better) and Ghost Who Walks (she meets 2kg worse). She’s got a real X-Factor and if the gaps had appeared in the Summer Scorcher on New Year’s Day she arguably would have won that too. ACROMANTULA is a jump and run 1000m horse who is suited to SWP racing and suited to a strong Easterly breeze. He gets both those conditions on Saturday. SNOWDOME and RED CAN MAN are both better than what they produced in the Bluff Knoll and can bounce back.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – WILD BELLE WIN

Same Race Multi – Wild Belle (Top 2) + Acromantula (Top 3)

Wild Belle is out to strut her stuff in the home of attracting a Quokka Slot Holder’s interest and 66 days ago she beat home key rivals Gemma’s Son, Ghost Who Walks and Real Danger in the Miss Andretti Stakes. She has a real excitement factor about her. Acromantula should have the pace to cross them and over 1000m he’s always hard to run down.

RACE 7

ONEMORETWOMANY went to the paddock two from two undefeated after winning an 1100m Plate on debut and then the Crystal Slipper Stakes a fortnight later. He resumed in the 2 year old Magic Milllions, sat over the stop of a frenetic tempo (first 600m run 14L faster than average) and was still only beaten 2L in the finish. Has trialled in between, now has a set of blinkers and will likely look to hold up from barrier 1. Looks hard to run down. SINFUL LIVING is also quick out of the machine and she can come out running and look to either breeze outside Onemoretwomany or cross if he’s slow away in a set of blinkers for the first time. Looks a nice race for her too. EARTHSTORM is a talented filly with a big turn of foot. Just might be looking for 1200/1400. SIR DREAMALOT demolished them at Bunbury but is drawn very awkwardly. Looks 3 deep?

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – ONEMORETWOMANY EACHWAY

RACE 8

RED FIFTY THREE was the eye catching run in the Bunbury Stakes when settling a mile off them and then scooting up the fence into a fast finishing second behind Aztec Ruler. With the unfortunate withdrawal on Tuesday morning of Aztec Ruler with a minor set back it really opens up the race for him. Natural concern is potentially getting back on a day where it might be hard to make ground. Risk vs Reward when it comes to price. MOJO RHYTHM was ridden closer in the Bunbury Stakes and was still good in defeat. He’s going undeniably well. WEAPONSON was a great run against the pattern coming wide on the track in the Bunbury Stakes. Going well. KARLI’S KARMA is the class runner of the race and brings real X-Factor.

Numbers: 8 – 3 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet – RED FIFTY THREE WIN

RACE 9

FAT ROY SLIM was backed from $7 into $2.60 last start in the key form reference race. It was a massive move for a horse coming out of a lowly 50+. Respect the volume of support that came his way and after Madi Derrick returns to the saddle he drops 2.5kg. He can roll across to park on the speed and won’t give up. DUCHEES DEMERIT was climbing over the back of them last start when looking for a run for the majority of the home straight. Savaged the line once finally clear. FOREVER BOY tackles 2100m for the first time in his life but he’s lightly raced, bred to stay and clearly progressive. SANTA BRAE was ridden for speed last start and ran them into the ground.

Numbers: 5 – 8 – 10 – 6

Suggested Bet – FAT ROY SLIM EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

3,7

1,4,7

1,3,6,7,8,9

5,6,8,9,10

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