Runner by Runner: Brisbane Cup & Queensland Cup

Posted on July 6, 2023July 6, 2023 | Posted by Harry Buchanan

Queensland Cup – 710m (Group 1)

No. 1 Play Nice

Ultra consistent campaigner who is no star but he turns up none the less no matter what. Another good grinding effort to get home in his heat off the same box. Shows pace and while he doesn’t have any real gear change, he does hold a sustained staying type of run throughout where he just keeps coming. Boxed to land close but chances are high they drop him off through the middle here and that could be costly. He won’t lay down though so EW chances always alive. 

No. 2 Palawa King 

Slow beginning, enigmatic and awkward….but he’s simply better than these. They did all they could to knock him out last week but once he got the clear room he needs, bye!!! It was nice knowing them. Cut loose with a devastating middle section that went straight past the leader to charge away and score in the fastest time. Knows how to put in a shocker and can lose focus from time to time but a replica of last week wins and easily. A little on the short side price wise but certain to be in the finish with a clear run. Awfully hard to beat. 

No. 3 Locked On Scotch 

Stunned all and sundry with a most the way victory in his heat running very good time. Had to do some work to get to the arm as well which makes his run even better and he ran it out strongly for his first 700. Will most likely need to find the top quickly here and also a question of that tough run last week and backing up with the stayers syndrome lurking. However there is no denying how he went about it and if he has not flattened himself, he will give a huge sight again for connections in his first group 1 final. Don’t dismiss him. 

No. 4 Ariarne Bale

If the 2 is the best dog in the race, this moody customer isn’t far behind. She can do anything on her day and she showed that last week when first up from a let up but showing no fitness issues at all when she dropped another gear up the back to round up the leader easily and race away. Be warned, she can do that again, or nothing at all. Worth nothing that last time she travelled interstate she won a heat at Cannington then failed badly in the final. It will come down to how quickly she gets into this. If that’s early, she will shake the life out of this race. Has a distinct class advantage and looks ready to pounce if she brings it back again. 

No. 5 Wheel And Go

Had box 1 when basically leading throughout in his heat to hold off Blue Hornet. Didn’t break 42 which has to be a concern against these and the fact he’s got the middle draw makes his job that much harder. Will need the arm solo and quickly to win and that task looks beyond him here unless he stepped best ever to cross the 3 and hold the 7 out. If he leads, he will give a sight but we would want double figure at the very least to entertain a play. Prepared to leave this time and others look better chances at this stage. 

No. 6 Rippin’ Grace 

Not a bad effort behind Play Nice in the heat when she overcame a check or two early then balked for a run at the top before nabbing 2nd late. Not a genuine stayer though and while her middle section is bettered only by the 2 and 4, she gets a lot of luck in her races by virtue of slow starts and fence runs. She also did get there well and truly in time to win last week but run had peaked at the 600s and while she didn’t tire, she had nothing left to offer in terms of the run home. Her best and only chance lies with a walk out again and a miracle first turn fence run to take over much sooner. She needs to get away up the back on the arm to win this race. Not sure she can. The favs can stay and strongly and that could be the difference. Back end exotics here but she will be trying hard and she gives her all every start and leaves nothing in the kennel. That alone will hold her in good stead here and while she probably can’t win, she will give her backers plenty to cheer about throughout the race. 

No. 7 Blue Hornet 

Local star who is as consistent as it gets. His versatility is also a strong point as he can sprint or stay. His staying form while always around the mark, lacks a knockout punch, and like a few of these, the back end of this race will see him vulnerable. Steps quickly most weeks and will rush up quickly out wide to look for a forward spot but the fact remains, he will need a lead, and fair size one at that. He’s not entirely out of this if he was to get the arm and get away as he does take catching most days. Roughie play on place heavy basis if he got out to $41 plus. 

No. 8 Dirt Farmer

Victorian kennel mate and brother to the red. Like his sibling, he grinds away all day and while he is nowhere near his illustrious half brother in Tornado Tears, they all can stay. Another one paced type who can settle forward but lacks any real change of gears through the middle which see him run only fair time most days. He does race wide which is in his favour here with the draw but he would needs some trouble and a leader who struggles to get over them in this. Prepared to risk. 

RESERVES

No. 9 Fast Milkman 

Unlikely to trouble these if he gains a start although he does go well here and can stay. Needs it easier however and would need an inside box to warrant any thought.

No. 19 Spot On Harper 

Speaking of staying, this little girl can literally stay all day. Would be a place heavy chance at least if she secured a start but she is unlikely to and will be going close in an earlier race. 

Selections: 2-4-7-6

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Brisbane Cup – 520m (Group 1)

No. 1 Bear’s Bullet 

Little pocket rocket who has exceptional early speed and box manners. Darted out in her heat to drop a 5.46 to score in 30.01 after getting tired in the run home. The week prior it took a remarkable effort from Kelsey Bale to run her down in 29.79 after again setting the pace. Boxed to fire out here and spear along the fence but she will have company outside her and she’s not known to absorb pressure in her races. In saying that, her early speed gives her a super chance and she is getting better being the veteran of only 27 starts. Will be in the firing line and if these favs don’t get over, she will take some catching.

No. 2 Mepunga Warrior 

A warrior he is!! Centurion plus attendance at the races and has scored 28 of those times. Got a lovely run across in his heat when chasing Big Town Hero and mowing him down late. He is one of few run on components here with his solid 600m form and he is boxed to get a pipe smoking run along the fence. He has some questions to answer though on the clock and he just may lack the brilliance to win a Brisbane cup with his lack of early speed and tactical sections that can put him in the race. His best chance would be a troubled first turn and being able to capitalise on that if it happens. Even then he would need to find a few tenths. Back exotics at best here. 

No. 3 Crumble Monelli 

WA representative who scored by virtue of box 1 in his heat and a very messy affair behind him. Drove up with a 5.54 to take over up the back and score in 30.24, and that isn’t winning a Brisbane Cup. Seems to have lost some early dash and found some back end strength off his big middle section but that won’t help him here. Lacks the necessary overall times to get into this and will struggle to cross the red alone unless he spears out old style Crumble. Seems unders at single figures and will need a minor miracle to score here. No from me. 

No. 4 Elite Machine

Another WA star who has taken to Albion Park like he never left home. Came out running again in his heat to drop a 5.49 holding the arm to race away in 29.68 and make it 2 from 2 here. Excels off inside draws and his box here may not be that bad with the 3 wanting in and the 2 a slow beginner. He could be the first dog on Bears Bullets doorstep if he comes out the way he has been and while his best and only chance is with leading, he is the most likely to with the red to try and hold the arm off the 8. Proper race dog who will give a huge sight and will take no end of catching if he does take over at any stage. 

No. 5 Magistrate

Local star with a tremendous strike rate and super record track and trip. Fired out of box 2 in his heat going 5.47 early to lead all the way in 29.91 and while he has good early burn, the move to box 5 has made his job that much harder here. Not known for his last section, he would need to lead and get some trouble behind him to have any chance here and the possibility of that is slim at best. Will try hard but not for mine. 

No. 6 Simply Limelight 

NSW weapon who ran out of his skin last week when taking some ground off Postman Pat late and charging home. He’s not out of this. Mainly because he will not be in any early speed battles and he is the big run on component here. Will drop to the fence and when a few of these can’t get the arm, he will start his rail hugging run home passing many of this field. If he happens to land closer than expected, then he will quickly become the dog to beat as he will just keep coming. Huge Each Way show in this and can spring the upset. 

No. 7 Amron Boy

Victorian missile who can do anything on a race track when things fall his way. That may not happen here here however. Has been stepping well lately though and while that will see him push up out wide, he doesn’t have the best draw here to obtain a trouble free run early. Will run on from off the arm but there has to be a question about how much start he can give a few of these and where he lands before doing that. Can not be dismissed and should finish top 4 but happy to take on.

No. 8 Postman Pat

Former NZ rocket who has arrived in Australia weapons hot!! Has yet to meet defeat in 7 runs in this country and has burned every clock he’s put his paw on so far. 29.35 here 2 starts back followed up with a 29.53 heat win means he is clearly the dog to beat. Goes blisteringly fast to the first turn and can handle the 8 box no problem. Will get a little more company this week in the run to the first turn but only has to stay away from them to again accelerate up the back and put them to a very sharp sword. Looks to have the cup at his mercy and only bad luck or an uncharacteristic slow start sees him beaten. 

Selections: 8-6-4-7

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