Sports

Digby’s Round 8 AFL Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Adelaide v Geelong

Friday, Adelaide Oval 5.50pm

There are a handful of games which stand out when the fixtures are released every year. This is one of them. Patrick Dangerfield is back in South Australia to play against Adelaide for the first time, a contest made all the more enticing by being on the Friday night stage. The fact the Cats are 6-1 and looking every bit the premiership contenders many touted them to be and the Crows are also well placed after a brutal start to the season, only adds to the occasion.

Dangerfield is as professional as any player in the competition and will not be bothered by the fact he will be jeered from the moment he gets off the team bus to the final siren. He will be more concerned with making sure the Cats midfield continues its excellent form and holds sway against the Crows. Save for a little period in the third term against West Coast last Saturday, Geelong’s on-ball division of Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Josh Caddy, Mitch Duncan, Cam Guthrie and Mark Blicavs wielded an enormous influence. Adelaide’s midfield has been good for the most part in 2016, but lost the clearance battle against the Western Bulldogs 41-24, a telling tally in the final result.

Adelaide’s biggest weapon remains their forward line. Though captain Taylor Walker appears less than fully fit, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch, Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron provide the offensive punch that will surely stretch the organised Cats back line. At the other end of the ground, Adelaide’s defenders will have their hands full curbing Tom Hawkins, Shane Kersten and Steven Motlop, while the unavailability of Rory Laird (toe) denies them important rebound off half-back. That the Cats have travelled to this venue and won already this season is another tick for Chris Scott’s side.

VERDICT: Geelong by 9 points

1st Goal Scorer: Eddie Betts

Essendon v North Melbourne

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 11.45am

North Melbourne had to work hard for the full four quarters to get their seventh successive win last Sunday when holding on to beat St Kilda. Unfortunately for Essendon coach John Worsfold, his players were unable to produce a sustained effort and fell to an 81-point defeat to Sydney at the SCG because of that. Worsfold knows his charges, many of them top-up players, are going to be vulnerable to the better sides and what we have witnessed so far in 2016, the Kangaroos are definitely that.

The ladder leaders suffered a blow this week when it was revealed silky forward Shaun Higgins would miss three months with a knee injury. Higgins’ absence means Lindsay Thomas earns an automatic recall following a one-week suspension and will need to be disciplined and efficient in front of goal in his teammate’s prolonged absence. One thing the Kangaroos don’t lack is firepower, with Jarrad Waite, Ben Brown, Drew Petrie and Brent Harvey all capable of hitting the scoreboard.

Essendon are leaning heavily on too few to carry the load, chiefly David Zaharakis, Brendon Goddard and Zach Merrett through the midfield. It is an area where the Bombers need everyone at their peak against the Kangaroos, who continue to receive excellent service from Jack Ziebell and Ben Cunnington. Joe Daniher has struggled to have the impact most at Essendon would have liked, but there is no denying he has the tools to be a factor.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 39 points

1st Goal Scorer: Brent Harvey

Hawthorn v Fremantle

Saturday, Aurora Stadium 12.10pm

There are tough interstate assignments. And then there is Hawthorn in Launceston. The Hawks are extremely difficult to beat anywhere, but become an ever harder nut to crack when they step out at Aurora Stadium. Granted, St Kilda nearly upset the premiers there earlier this season, but it would be a major shock if the Dockers were able to fully extend Alastair Clarkson’s side.

Ross Lyon made it known on Tuesday that veteran forward Matthew Pavlich wouldn’t be making the trip to Tasmania, further highlighting the enormity of the task confronting the winless Dockers. Fremantle were solid enough against Greater Western Sydney and might be aided in their bid to dirty up this contest by inclement weather, but the skill disparity between the two sides is stark. Hawthorn’s ability to separate defences and spread the ball with their elite kicking skills is unrivalled. Conversely, many Dockers players wouldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat.

Fremantle are the third-lowest scoring team this year and that spells major trouble for Lyon and his players, who will know that any missed opportunities will be punished at the other end. Paul Puopolo has taken his game to another level, a frightening prospect when you consider he roams the forward 50m alongside Luke Breust and Jack Gunston. No Cyril Rioli (personal reasons) helps Fremantle, but it must be remembered the Hawks won the corresponding match last season by 72 points and Fremantle are light years away from that level at present.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 59 points

1st Goal Scorer: Luke Breust

GWS v Gold Coast

Saturday, Spotless Stadium 2.35pm

Few would have envisaged that Greater Western Sydney would be significantly further advanced than Gold Coast, 12 months their senior, when they entered the competition earlier this decade. But that is exactly the situation and any doubters only need to view this match. The Giants have peeled off a club-record four wins in a row and are fresh off a plucky effort against Fremantle in Perth, their first victory in six visits to WA.

Their win came only hours after the Suns downed tools in their crushing defeat to Melbourne. The loss of Matt Rosa (hamstring) and Alex Sexton (broken arm) restricted coach Rodney Eade’s options, but the lack of fight and discipline after quarter time was astonishing. Captain Gary Ablett is nowhere near the level the Suns need him at, and it is unlikely he will be afforded any time and space by the hard-nosed Giants midfield, which continues to be superbly led by Callan Ward and Stephen Coniglio.

In a contest which shapes as being seriously lopsided, the battle between two brilliant young key forwards Tom Lynch and Jeremy Cameron promises to be a highlight. Lynch continues to operate at an extremely high level despite Gold Coast’s woes, while Cameron is ticking along nicely after missing the first four games of the season through suspension. Given Cameron is being assisted by Rory Lobb, Jonathon Patton and Steve Johnson is an undeniable advantage.

VERDICT: GWS by 67 points

1st Goal Scorer: Jeremy Cameron

Brisbane v Collingwood

Saturday, Gabba 5.25pm

If Nathan Buckley thought losing to Carlton was hard yards, he wouldn’t want to oversee another defeat to Brisbane. The Magpies coach is under increasing pressure to get his injury-hit side playing at a level that is not only sustainable, but organised. The inability to defend properly against the offensively challenged Blues was a black mark alongside Buckley and his coaching staff. It cannot afford to happen again in this clash with the Lions, who are also very shaky in their back half.

Brisbane are mixing their form of late, but what we are seeing is competitive efforts at home. If they are to eke out a second victory for the year, it will have to be achieved without captain Tom Rockliff, who strained a hamstring in last Sunday’s bad loss to Port Adelaide. There is a gulf between Brisbane’s senior core and their young brigade, placing more pressure on the likes of Dayne Beams, Daniel Rich, Tom Bell, Mitch Robinson, Ryan Bastinac, Pearce Hanley and Dayne Zorko.

Brisbane haven’t got the key-marking weapons that could expose the Magpies, rather they rely on the mid-sized and small forwards to contribute, along with their midfield. Allen Christensen has been busy in his second season at the club and seems to save his best for the Gabba. Given little separates two poorly performed sides, the best indicator might be Brisbane’s ability to stretch Sydney a fortnight ago.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 12 points

1st Goal Scorer: Ryan Lester

Richmond v Sydney

Saturday, MCG 5.25pm

Richmond fans looking for a glimmer of hope were dealt a blow on Thursday morning when coach Damien Hardwick declared captain Trent Cotchin would miss a second week with a fractured cheekbone. It certainly leaves an out-of-sorts midfield exposed against the brutally efficient and experienced Swans running division which continues to excel. So much so, that the Tigers’ defence will be under siege for large periods of this game.

Thankfully for Hardwick and his club’s long-suffering supporters, dual All-Australian full-back Alex Rance returns from suspension. And it couldn’t have come at a better time. He will go straight to Lance Franklin, who is enjoying an outstanding season. The pep in Franklin’s step is well and truly back and if there is one stage the engaging spearhead loves more than the SCG, it is the MCG. His understanding with second-year forward Isaac Heeney has been a surprise to everyone outside the four walls of Sydney, while the presence of Kurt Tippett when he is stationed deep forward is another bonus.

The Tigers were OK for periods against Hawthorn, but were overrun in the final term when the Hawks won the midfield battle. That is alarming for Hardwick, who needs no reminding that the Swans are the third-highest scoring team this season. Opposition clubs have put a lot of work into rebounding Richmond defender Bachar Houli and it wouldn’t be a shock if the Swans follow suit. To be perfectly honest, it is difficult to see how Sydney don’t win.

VERDICT: Sydney by 32 points

1st Goal Scorer: Tom Papley

Carlton v Port Adelaide

Sunday, Etihad Stadium, 11.10am

For all their woes in recent times, Carlton have enjoyed a very solid head-to-head record against Port Adelaide. Indeed, they have beaten the Power in three of their past five meetings, including the corresponding fixture last season that only served to highlight the woes at Alberton. With that knowledge and belief, the Blues are entitled to enter this match full of confidence, especially after notching win No.3 in a line last weekend against traditional rivals Collingwood.

The Blues were well served against the Magpies by young gun Patrick Cripps on his return from a calf injury, while their leaders Kade Simpson, Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy performed strongly once again. Levi Casboult had his kicking boots on (yes, you read that correctly) and Brendon Bolton’s men looked anything but the wooden spoon candidates they were considered prior to the start of the season. They will again need to lead the way against the Power, who have finally shown signs of life.

A week after conceding just eight goals against Richmond, Port restricted Brisbane to only seven majors. Like Carlton, their premier performers, notably captain Travis Boak, Ollie Wines, Justin Westhoff, Jackson Trengove and Chad Wingard were at a high standard. Wingard will be better for his run and, thanks to the emergence of Aaron Young and Charlie Dixon’s improvement, play a part in a multi-dimensional forward line. The use of Trengove and Westhoff as mobile ruck options against Brisbane generated a lot of possessions around the ground and will ask much of Matthew Kreuzer.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 20 points

1st Goal Scorer: Chad Wingard

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Sunday, MCG 1.20pm

The Western Bulldogs highlighted their skill set and pluck last Saturday night when they withstood the best Adelaide could throw at them and pulled away late to record a tremendous victory. Likewise, Melbourne weathered a predictable Gold Coast surge early before stamping themselves as finals contenders with a devastating final three quarters. Now, we get to see two of the more entertaining sides lock horns in a match that should reveal even more about the prospects of both.

For the first time this season, the Bulldogs set foot outside Etihad Stadium and back on the MCG, the scene of their elimination final loss to Adelaide last year — and the Demons’ preferred venue. That they venture there without strong-bodied key defender Marcus Adams (finger) on top of no Robert Murphy (knee), Jason Johannisen (hamstring) and Matt Suckling (ankle) will test coach Luke Beveridge. Adelaide key forward Josh Jenkins booted eight goals last weekend and Jesse Hogan showed when kicking seven against St Kilda, what he is capable of against a back line light on for talls.

But like so many games, this will be decided in the midfield where Bulldogs Mitch Wallis, Marcus Bontempelli, Koby Stevens, Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Liberatore and Jack Macrae will stand off against Nathan Jones, Jack Viney, Bernie Vince and James Harmes. That the Demons’ runners are being fed by a dominant Max Gawn is critically important. The Demons beat the Bulldogs at the MCG in the corresponding match last season and there is a lot more to like about Melbourne 12 months on.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 13 points

1st Goal Scorer: Jesse Hogan

West Coast v St Kilda

Sunday, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

As was the case a fortnight ago, this match is not expected to reveal a great deal about West Coast. Barring something unforseen, they will win and win well against a developing opponent, similar to what they did when they encountered Collingwood. The Eagles feed off the emotion of their home crowd and can be awfully hard to curtail once Nic Naitanui assumes control in the ruck.

St Kilda coach Alan Richardson will be well aware of that and hoping the revitalised Tom Hickey can continue his outstanding start to the season, in particular his excellent association with David Armitage. A quality midfielder, Armitage and his fellow runners, chiefly Jack Steven, Leigh Montagna, Jack Newnes, Maverick Weller and the evergreen and flexible Nick Riewoldt can halt the Eagles’ runners, minus the dropped Lewis Jetta, and get a stream of possession heading their way.

West Coast have made a habit of pressing up and squeezing the life out of their rivals in Perth and being extremely effective on the counter when the ball is turned over. We saw that occur in the final term against the Magpies and though question marks surround the form of several Eagles on the road, the same worries aren’t evident before their Domain Stadium faithful. Fresh off a gallant effort against North Melbourne, the Saints will have a crack, but the Eagles remain in the premiership discussion for a reason.

VERDICT: West Coast by 40 points

1st Goal Scorer: Josh Kennedy

bet now

Digby Beacham is Deputy Sports Editor of The West Australian




Recent Articles