Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

ROYAL TORONADO was outstanding fresh at 1200m. He settled at the rear and rattled home into third behind Immortal Bliss and Sonoftheboss, running the fastest L600 of the race. He now has to go second-up to 1800m which is clearly an ask but from barrier 1 Willie Pike will be in his favourite position: three back the fence and will back himself to find gaps in the home straight. ASIF is now in unfamiliar waters stepping out to 1800m, however, prior to this campaign had never raced over 1600m either and is now 2 starts for a win and a minor. New stable – new horse. Clear danger. ROYAL LAW should have nearly finished in the money first-up after being slightly held up at a crucial stage. Can roll to the top here or park on Rock In Wonder. SOLDANELLE is an enigma but her last two have been career best.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – ROYAL TORONADO WIN

RACE 2

TYCOON HARRY, SNOW PRINCE and CASTLE ROAD will go quick out in front as each of the trio under respective apprentice riders would ideally like to find the fence. That sets up nicely for something to park and ride the speed and get over the top of them late and that horse could well be ROLLING RULER. He was massive behind subsequent winner Santanova at the short course after missing away and then last time out as soon as he jumped he was able to put himself into a commanding position in running. Still has plenty to learn, but he’s progressive. PINGERS similarly will sit back and look to zap them late. She resumed a 13 start C1 with a metro rating of m56. Now m66 and won three from four this prep. TYCOON HARRY is going to have to absorb plenty of pressure. WEMBANYAMA will be suited by the speed on early.

Numbers: 5 – 8 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – ROLLING RULER WIN

RACE 3

URQUARTS BLUFF has been a model of consistency the whole prep and gets a gun run. He’s now 66+ placed on two occasions and yet will still go around a healthy eachway price dropping back into a 60+ Graduation. Paul Jordan’s team continue to go well and this horse continues to be under-rated. SO SI GOD over-did it from leader’s back in a slowly run 1400 last start at the mid-weekers. Gets 4.5kg weight relief and a far more genuine tempo here at 1200m. Think she’s pretty sharp and more than capable of measuring up at this level. LUCKY I AM was scratched from Wednesday to save for this and it looks a very astute move. Did a massive job after uncharacteristically bungling the start to pick herself up and weave a passage through traffic late. EARTH GOD similarly has been there abouts all preparation.

Numbers: 8 – 12 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – URQUHARTS BLUFF EACHWAY

RACE 4

WONDERFULLY MADE and MASMELO ran first and second in the Ascot 1000 Guineas and quite simply that should be the race again here in the Natasha. Extra 400m, 2kg weight swing – is that enough for MASMELO to turn the tables on WONDERFULLY MADE? Or is her best chance at the 2400m of the WA Oaks? Don’t think there’s that much between them over this trip but given Wonderfully Made has the tactical speed and versatility that Masmelo lacks, going to go with her again to complete the double. Still confident that MASMELO can beat her in the WA Oaks at 2400m and could be the superior stayer, but in these small fields they’re going to walk and she’s dictated to again drawing barrier 1 and being locked away on the fence. POPPYS ROSES will stay all day. ADMIRE ASTRA will again give cheek.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – WONDERFULLY MADE WIN

Same Race Multi – Wonderfully Made (Win) + Masmelo (Top 2)

Going aggressive with the SRM to create a fixed odds Exacta, with the result the same as the Ascot 1000 Guineas with Wonderfully Made beating Masmelo. Do think with the extra 400m and the 2kg weight swing that Masmelo will close the gap and prove hard to hold out late, however, she’ll also be back in traffic at stages whereas Wonderfully Made will be off and gone.

RACE 5

FIREARM resumed over 1000m and got home well into third behind Aurum Belle and Snow Monkey in the highest rating 2 year old race of the season so far in WA. Simply have to follow that as the superior form reference race and with the addition of Pike to the saddle expect that he’ll be popular at stages in betting. Drawn sticky but does look to naturally get off speed regardless. HAPPY DANCE looked visually and to the clock the most impressive of the debutantes. Neville Parnham wheeled out a $750,000 yearling a fortnight ago who led and won as favourite and now presents this mere $35,000 yearling purchase as she looks to do the exact same thing. Should bounce and put herself into the contest. MR KAPLAN was winding up nicely in his trial and if Trevor Andrews booked his riders the other way around the early market would probably have followed? DIXIE DOO was huge against the pattern last week.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 12 – 4

Suggested Bet – FIREARM WIN

RACE 6

LATER ALLIGATOR put the writing on the wall last start over 1400m behind emerging mare Magical Sequence and the ever consistent On Patrol. This looks an easier edition of the Westspeed races on paper and he’ll get all the favours from the draw. He looks very well suited and quite hard to beat? FIFTH ESSENCE was 7 weeks between runs last start and fought on well from the breeze at 1400m. He’s drawn wide but on paper there doesn’t look to be much speed outside of him and Kerman Rock who didn’t use his tactical speed until third-up last prep. Should get across safely and run another honest eachway race. THE SPRUIKER has had 28 days between runs to put a big of spring back in his old legs. SUCCESS PLAY looks just about ready.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet – LATER ALLIGATOR WIN

RACE 7

WESTERN LADY just couldn’t reel in a plucky Birds The Word last week at 1675m. She’s now on the 7 day back-up, heading out to 1800m and given she’s the daughter of a Perth Cup winner it’s reasonable to expect that she’ll only get better and better over ground. She’s got far more ability and upside than the vast majority of her rivals here and expect she’ll be extremely hard to hold out late. Just wary that she profiles like a horse who will get very short? Possibly evens or odds on? TOURETTO was set a task last time out, trying to circle them from the 1000m. All things considered he was huge (again) and this is a nice race for him on paper dropping back into a Grad. LATE ARRIVAL is back to 1800m and should be able to muster up underneath them to either lead or box seat. BAYHARA is coming out of Geraldton but she’s fit and in form.

Numbers: 10 – 2 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet – WESTERN LADY WIN

RACE 8 

HORCRUX should land into an ideal spot here. He’s had an interrupted prep being second-up, 6 weeks between outings, but with King Adviso and Sky Duke likely to burn across from their outside gates it should allow Pike to lob 1×1 and give him every chance on the 54kg minimum. Just looks the mapped horse. IMMORTAL BLISS got the world perfect run at his Dan Morton debut. He’s now got 60kg from the outside gate. Far tougher task here. TIMELESS GEM has had a 55 day freshen after the Mt Barker Sprint. It’s a unique circuit Barker and it brings many travelling Perth horses undone (don’t forget Immortal Bliss was in that race and there’s a 3kg weight swing in Timeless Gem’s favour). SKY DUKE did finish second in the Cyril Flower beating home subsequent Pinjarra Classic winner Londons Image.

Numbers: 13 – 3 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet – HORCRUX WIN

RACE 9

THE CRIMSON PIRATE won the Lex Piper Stakes in a visually dominant fashion, however, there is more to the story. The first 1000m was run in 1:03:12 – so they absolutely walked and he was the biggest beneficiary. This time around there’s an extra 200m, he’s got an extra 2kg on his back. Going to side up with him again, but wouldn’t be surprised if all the money is for ABERDEEN FLYER to turn the tables. He was a sectionally superior run in that race clocking the fastest L1200, 1000, 800, 600, 400 & 200. They’ve gone back to the blinkers from the visors and being ridden midfield is the key to him producing his best. SENTIMENTAL LEGEND brings great intrigue into the race. He was dominant against battlers at Belmont but love the way he lengthened and attacked the line late. Genuine Derby contender. DOMINATUS over-raced and brought himself undone second-up.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – THE CRIMSON PIRATE WIN

RACE 10

DESERT WAVES is an emerging talent and Summer Dickson’s horses are finally getting the market respect they deserve: Last 90 days: 33 runners, 10 winners at 94% POT. This horse has progressed from a maiden to a C3 and now to a 60+ Graduation and has a real X-Factor about him. Think he can take the step into what looks an open and even contest. RALLY THE TROOPS deserves to win one on a Saturday. So far he’s won 3x in 0MWLY company both as a 3 year old and a 4 year old, and his last start effort was super. Gets 2kg and Pike vs key rival Yougivemechills and a barrier to work with as a horse who can sit close handy and still show a turn of foot. Makes a lot of sense. AZENA has hit serious form being ridden for sustained speed. DON’T TRUST JUDAS has been desperately unlucky his last two.

Numbers: 11 – 4 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet – DESERT WAVES EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

2,5,10

1,3,6,10,13

1,2,4

1,4,7,9,11

Market Market



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