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Digby’s AFL Round 17 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Sydney v Hawthorn

Thursday, SCG 5.20pm

The jury might be out on Thursday night football, however there is no denying the importance of this heavyweight stoush. Hawthorn travel north to tackle Sydney at the SCG on top of the ladder, but face the very real prospect of sliding to fourth, just one game above eighth spot with a second loss to the Swans in 2016. And their bid to upset the hosts hasn’t been helped by the loss of accountable midfielder Liam Shiels (hamstring).

The Hawks have a high-quality midfield, but Sydney’s on-ball division is slightly bigger and deeper, and the absence of Shiels denies Alastair Clarkson his No.1 man to run with prime mover Dan Hannebery. Without Shiels, the Swans have the capacity to hold sway in the most important area of the ground through Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Tom Mitchell and Kieren Jack. Hawthorn have weapons and undeniable big-game experience, but Sydney’s overall form in 2016 has not only been more consistent, but at a higher standard.

VERDICT: Sydney by 13 points.

1st goal scorer: Lance Franklin

Fremantle v Geelong

Friday, Domain Stadium 6.10pm

Chris Scott hasn’t yet hit the panic button, but he wouldn’t be human if his fingers haven’t hovered over it in the past week. The Cats have slipped down the premiership pecking order after losing either side of their bye to St Kilda and Sydney, with the loss to the Swans exposing many flaws in their line-up. Fortunately for Scott and the Cats, they are gifted an opportunity to get back on track against a very ordinary Fremantle outfit.

The Dockers are missing a swag of players, but also a pulse at the start of games. Their starts against Collingwood and Melbourne were ordinary and led to smackings in both matches, and unless their midfield holds its ground early, Geelong could easily get away from them. Patrick Dangerfield is amassing ridiculous numbers at present and if Joel Selwood can lead the support cast like he is capable of, the Dockers will remain anchored on three wins.

VERDICT: Geelong by 35 points.

1st goal scorer: Tom Hawkins

Richmond v Essendon

Saturday, MCG 11.40am

Only as recently as last month, this match would have been a snoozefest. However, the injection of some fresh Tiger cubs and Essendon’s more attacking mindset on what promises to be a fine Saturday afternoon at the MCG, could lead to an entertaining encounter. Finals are clearly out of reach of both and with the burden of expectation eased somewhat, both sets of fans will be on hand with genuine hope.

The Bombers stretched the necks of St Kilda last Sunday and will be strengthened by the return of David Zaharakis from suspension, while Richmond are clearly a more formidable side at the MCG. The Tigers continue to be paced through the midfield by Dustin Martin, who is having a career year. Expect Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio, Anthony Miles, Brandon Ellis and Reece Conca to amass numbers that overwhelm Essendon. A display anywhere near the level Richmond produced against the Western Bulldogs will be enough.

VERDICT: Richmond by 40 points.

1st goal scorer: Joe Daniher

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 2.35pm

Port Adelaide have been very good for periods of 2016 and lamentable at other stages. Their defensive structure has certainly improved from earlier in the season, but it just might be a case of winding back the clock that best suits the Power here. That is, full-out attack. Port have the leg speed to trouble North Melbourne and in Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard, indisputable A-graders who have caused the Kangaroos their share of problems.

Down on personnel, form and confidence, North will be happy to return to Etihad Stadium, their preferred venue, but wary of what Port are capable of. If Todd Goldstein is able to have his way in the centre square as you would expect, the Kangaroos should have a decided advantage and place the Power’s vulnerable back line under enormous pressure. The absence of Mason Wood (knee) hurts, although the expected return of Jarrad Waite shapes as a major boost.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 10 points.

1st goal scorer: Ben Brown

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast

Saturday, Cazalys Stadium 5.25pm

Nobody would begrudge either the Western Bulldogs or Gold Coast having some overdue good fortune on the injury front in the wake of what they have experienced in 2016. Sadly for the Suns however, their wretched run shows no signs of abating, the season-ending injuries to Gary Ablett (shoulder) and Michael Rischitelli (knee) further weakening an already injury-ravaged midfield.

And it’s safe to assume that Gold Coast coach Rodney Eade would have the Bulldogs in the top handful of sides you don’t want to meet when your own running brigade is vulnerable. Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Hunter, Liam Picken, Jack Macrae, Caleb Daniel, Mitch Wallis and Matthew Boyd are capable of wreaking havoc, even in the absence of injured pair Luke Dahlhaus and Tom Liberatore. Then there is the small matter of game-changing Jake Stringer. This is a perfect opportunity for the Bulldogs to boost their percentage.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 42 points.

1st goal scorer: Tom Lynch

Adelaide v Collingwood

Saturday, Adelaide Oval 5.40pm

It was impossible not to be impressed by what Collingwood produced when they stunned Greater Western Sydney at their Spotless Stadium fortress last weekend. Equally, you are a hard marker if the efforts of Adelaide over the past two months haven’t made you sit up and take notice. As silly as it sounds given the boom surrounding the Giants, this week’s assignment is at another level for the Magpies.

Adelaide’s defence has tightened up dramatically from the first six weeks of the season, but their midfield and forward line is no less potent. Collingwood have also been far more efficient in the back half than they were in the opening half of the year, but still did allow GWS to boot seven goals in the first term. Magpies big man Brodie Grundy was outstanding and enabled his runners to split apart the GWS midfield. Taking on an in-form Sam Jacobs shapes as a major test however, as will silencing the rabid Crows fans in Scott Thompson’s 300th AFL appearance.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 34 points.

1st goal scorer: Taylor Walker

Carlton v West Coast

Sunday, MCG 11.10am

It took until round 16, but West Coast’s effort against North Melbourne finally resembled something we saw on a regular basis last season — a potent forward line, midfield dominance and sturdy defence, along with a willingness to tackle and harass like an elite side. The victory elevated the Eagles into fifth spot and seem well placed to ensure they stay on the cusp of the top four against a wobbly Carlton.

The Blues are struggling to compete at present and their desire to kick a winning total was dealt a massive blow when Levi Casboult was suspended for striking. His absence deprives Brendon Bolton of his one attacking weapon, even taking into account Dennis Armfield’s excellent effort in the defeat to Adelaide last Sunday. No Marc Murphy also leaves Carlton’s midfield at the mercy of Eagles runners Luke Shuey, Matt Priddis, Andrew Gaff and Chris Masten.

VERDICT: West Coast by 39 points.

1st goal scorer: Josh Kennedy

St Kilda v Melbourne

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 1.20pm

On form, Melbourne deserve to be favourites. Simply, they have been more consistent and competitive for the bulk of 2016 than St Kilda. However, there are a couple of other factors at play here. The Demons haven’t beaten St Kilda in 13 matches and have won only one of their past 24 matches at Etihad Stadium. Their most recent outing at the Docklands venue this season was against the Saints in round six when they were as bad as St Kilda were good.

A highlight in that match for Paul Roos’ side was the seven-goal contribution of Jesse Hogan. Given the dearth of quality key talls in St Kilda’s defence, another bag from the WA youngster wouldn’t be a shock, especially if Jack Watts continues his fine form and the Demons’ ball movement is as rapid as it has been. That said, the Saints are very accomplished at Etihad and boast plenty of quality performers, through the midfield and in attack. If, as Ross Lyon says, the trend is your friend, it’s impossible to tip the Demons with any confidence.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 11 points.

1st goal scorer: Tim Membrey

Brisbane v GWS

Sunday, Gabba 2.40pm

Greater Western Sydney’s team of young guns, sprinkled with gnarly old veterans, would have well within their rights to be highly excited when they were presented with film of Brisbane in the lead-up this weekend’s match. The Lions’ defensive inadequacies enabled Gold Coast, reduced to 21 men in the opening minutes following Michael Rischitelli’s knee injury, to boot 22 goals and cruise to victory last Saturday.

The Giants paid the price for a lack of commitment, both physical and mental, when losing to Collingwood, but it would be a major shock if the same occurred here. Shane Mumford has the capacity to boss the ruck contests against Stefan Martin and if he does, Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio, Lachie Whitfield and Josh Kelly will force feed Jeremy Cameron, Jonathan Patton, Steve Johnson and Toby Greene with ample opportunities to fill their boots.

VERDICT: GWS by 70 points.

1st goal scorer: Steve Johnson

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