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Digby’s AFL Round 11 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn

Adelaide Oval 5.50pm

Six days after leaving tipsters in disbelief, Hawthorn will look to play the role of party poopers once again when they travel to Adelaide. As impressive as the Hawks were against Sydney at the SCG, Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval is an entirely different scenario.

The Power lost no admirers on the road against Geelong last week and though their four losses have come to likely finalists, they are looming as a side capable of shaping September. A reason for that is their ability to play a complete game. Port can score heavily, are well serviced through the midfield and defend stoutly.

Hawthorn used their possession game to great effect against the Swans, but don’t expect the Power to allow Alastair Clarkson’s men the time and space to control the tempo of this contest. Port will get up in their face and force turnovers and when they do, back in Robbie Gray and Charlie Dixon to create havoc deep inside their forward half.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 32 points

Geelong v Adelaide

Simonds Stadium 5.50pm

Geelong have served as Adelaide’s kryptonite in recent times. Indeed in the two games last season, the potent Crows attack was restricted to a combined 18 goals, including only seven in the corresponding fixture. It would be a mighty effort if the Cats were again able to harness Adelaide, fresh off a 100-point mauling of Fremantle in shocking conditions last Saturday night.

The Crows’ forward line scores like no other in the competition and the forecast of a crisp, clear night should suit it against a Cats defence which hasn’t been anywhere near as efficient as last season. But the manner in which the ball is moved into Adelaide’s attacking half is vital. Scott Selwood will in all likelihood go to Rory Sloane, who powers his team’s running division. We saw what happened to Adelaide when North Melbourne and Melbourne curbed Sloane earlier this season.

On the flip side, Adelaide will be well aware that Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood are instrumental in Geelong’s fortunes. So what does Don Pyke do about it? One would hope something, even though he is more willing to back his players in than use out-and-out tags. If this match was in South Australia, just about every tipster would be all over the Crows. The fact it is at Simonds Stadium tightens up the contest, but the Crows at full flight are superior to Geelong.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 11 points.

Gold Coast v West Coast

Metricon Stadium 11.45am

Jack Darling, your time is now. If Darling, the second pea in West Coast’s attacking pod behind Josh Kennedy, can handle the added responsibility in the absence of the wounded dual Coleman medallist, the Eagles’ top-four aspirations don’t necessarily need a line ruled through them. But that means playing smart, absorbing contact, holding firm in contests and most importantly, taking opportunities when they present.

The Eagles haven’t lost to Gold Coast since the Suns entered the competition. Sound familiar? Yes, Adam Simpson’s side was unbeaten leading into last Sunday’s match opposed to Greater Western Sydney. While the Eagles have handed out some thumpings to Gold Coast, they have also had their necks stretched more than once, including a draw the last time they visited the Glitter Strip.

The return of Gary Ablett from a shoulder injury boosts a Gold Coast side in desperate need of a pick-me-up following the second-half capitulation to Melbourne in Alice Springs. If Ablett and his fellow midfielders, notably David Swallow, Touk Miller, Aaron Hall and Michael Barlow, can find some football, the Eagles will be extended. That said, the manner in which the Suns downed tools last weekend was alarming and West Coast still have a greater spread of talent.

VERDICT: West Coast by 20 points.

GWS v Essendon

Spotless Stadium, 2.35pm

Having achieved a breakthrough win over West Coast last weekend, one could forgive Greater Western Sydney if they had a slight letdown in this contest against Essendon. But you just get the impression that the Giants, sensing an opportunity to lock away two home finals later in the year, know exactly what is at stake and are too proud and talented to slip up.

Essendon coach John Worsfold somehow needs to find a way to unlock more run from his midfield. Failure to do so opposed to the Giants’ fleet-footed on-ball division and their rebounding half-backs will leave his defence badly exposed.  There is only so much Michael Hurley can do in the back half. Worsfold also must unearth the right match-up for Toby Greene, who was so influential against the Eagles when the game was in the balance.

The Giants delved deep into their playing stocks against West Coast, but the contributions of prime movers Callan Ward, Josh Kelly and Dylan Shiel, at the feet of Shane Mumford, shredded the Eagles. Essendon aren’t quick in that area of the ground, but are very lively forward of centre. However, often lost in the conversation surrounding the ultra-talented Giants is how well they defend. Expect them to limit the Bombers to a manageable total.

VERDICT: GWS by 32 points.

North Melbourne v Richmond

Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

If there was one side North Melbourne could tee up to improve their win-loss ratio, it would be Melbourne. Richmond would be the next cab off the rank. The Kangaroos have terrorised the Tigers for a prolonged period and on the back of winning four of their past five matches, are entitled to think their healthy record can continue here.

But Richmond are playing some very solid football, and finally cracked a close game last weekend with a stirring win over Essendon before massive crowd at the MCG. Dustin Martin was again outstanding, Brandon Ellis recaptured some of his very best form and Jack Riewoldt, having been unusually inaccurate, stood up when required. That trio, along with other proven performers, including captain Trent Cotchin, will again need to be to the fore against North, who are spreading the workload and applying excellent pressure.

Alex Rance is a wonderful key defender, but in Jarrad Waite, Ben Brown and Mason Wood, not to mention the high-leaping, mid-sized goal kicker Taylor Garner, the Kangaroos have options aplenty inside their forward half. The emergence of Trent Dumont in a midfield boasting Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington, Sam Gibson and Shaun Higgins ensures the forwards are afforded plenty of looks.

VERDICT: Richmond by 11 points.

Fremantle v Collingwood

Domain Stadium 2.40pm

A slight hiccup or a deafening belch? That is the question following Fremantle’s insipid display opposed to Adelaide last Saturday night. We will certainly glean a great deal about the Dockers when they return home and face up to an improving Collingwood in the sole Sunday match of round 11.

That Fremantle were torched through the midfield in conditions you would anticipate Lachie Neale, David Mundy and Nat Fyfe to relish, was alarming. They will need to be at their optimum against the Magpies’ running division which is undeniably their strength. Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams, Adam Treloar, Daniel Wells, Jack Crisp and Steele Sidebottom are prolific and appreciate having Jamie Elliott back inside their attacking 50m.

Fremantle are rarely going to overwhelm an opponent with goals, but they can be hard to break down around the stoppages when on song. A key component to their success is Aaron Sandilands, who was missing last weekend because of a hamstring strain. The Dockers expect he will be available for this match and if he is able to win the aerial battle opposed to Brodie Grundy, the hosts should be able to bounce back quickly and again stake a claim for a top-eight berth.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 19 points.

TIPS

Port Adelaide, Adelaide, West Coast, GWS, Richmond, Fremantle

MULTI

Port Adelaide, Adelaide and Fremantle to win at $3.54

NOVELTY

Port Adelaide to win and match total under 182.5 points into West Coast to win and match total over 189.5 at $6.34

Bet Now!



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