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Digby’s AFL Preview – Round 6

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 28 April

GWS v Western Bulldogs, Manuka Oval 5.50pm

Greater Western Sydney players have been looking forward to this game ever since the 2017 fixtures were released. It makes perfect sense. The Giants were denied a grand final appearance by the Western Bulldogs last September, a defeat made all the more painful given they had beaten Sydney comfortably in a qualifying final a fortnight earlier.

GWS sent a scare through the competition last weekend when they spotted the Swans four quick goals and then quickly reeled them in before winning on the bit. They are full of class, with their midfield in extremely good nick despite being undermanned. The Bulldogs dodged a bullet against Brisbane, but also displayed their firepower, albeit in the second half after falling more than five goals behind.

How Bulldogs on-ballers Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Luke Dahlhaus, Jack Macrae and Lachie Hunter handle their duties against Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel, Josh Kelly and Tom Scully will go a long way towards determining the outcome. The fact GWS boast the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Jonathon Patton and Toby Greene forward of centre holds them in good stead.

VERDICT: GWS by 20 points

Saturday, 29 April

Hawthorn v St Kilda, University of Tasmania Stadium 11.45am

Not selecting Hawthorn at their Launceston fortress has been tipping suicide for some time now. The Hawks are closing in on 20 consecutive wins in Tasmania, although one narrow result that went their way was in the corresponding game last season. And regardless of what we witnessed at the MCG last Sunday, this isn’t the same Hawthorn side the football world feared for some time.

That said, St Kilda need to get on their bike if they are to play finals also. The Saints were solid opposed to Geelong at Etihad Stadium, but wilted badly in the final 30 minutes when the Cats slammed on eight last-quarter goals. Alan Richardson put it on his midfield and the barb will no doubt spark the likes of Jack Steven, Leigh Montagna and Seb Ross.

Hawthorn showed signs of nerves against West Coast early, but once it became apparent the Eagles were mentally incapable of handling the occasion, they found a nice rhythm. James Sicily and Tim O’Brien hit the scoreboard, as did Luke Breust, while the bounce back of Cyril Rioli was impossible to ignore. Ben McEvoy rucked well and would love to perform well against his old club, but the anticipated return of Tom Hickey from a week off could provide St Kilda with a slight edge.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 13 points

 

Carlton v Sydney, MCG 12.10pm

For a fleeting moment last Saturday night, Sydney looked like the Sydney of old. Then, in the blink of an eye, they looked like the Sydney of the current day. Therein lies the problem. The Swans aren’t anywhere near the level we have seen in recent times and that is reflected by their 0-5 record.

Even with their shortcomings, especially through the midfield, they look far too potent for Carlton. The young Blues were pumped by Port Adelaide last Friday night and if coach Brendon Bolton is committed to continuing down the youth path — and all evidence suggests he is — more touch-ups will follow. Lance Franklin has a great affinity with the MCG and if Luke Parker, Isaac Heeney, Dan Hannebery and Josh Kennedy provide him with enough supply, he could have a day out.

VERDICT: Sydney by 39 points

 

Brisbane v Port Adelaide, Gabba 2.35pm

Brisbane fans dared to dream during the second quarter of last Saturday’s match against the Western Bulldogs. The Lions had the premiers on the ropes, aided enormously by bold ball movement and excellent finishing in front of goal. But in the second half, the gulf between proven ability and potential was exposed as the Bulldogs flooded home.

It was through no fault of Dayne Zorko, who was outstanding. He will again need to be a shining light, along with Dayne Beams, Tom Rockliff and Daniel Rich, against a Power midfield division that is missing captain Travis Boak, but still grandly served by Ollie Wines, Brad Ebert, Jared Polec and Sam Gray, along with cameo appearances by the white-hot Robbie Gray.

The Power have defended stoutly all season and the return from a pre-season hamstring injury by Jasper Pittard in the past fortnight has only made them better. The Lions stunned Port at the Gabba in 2015, but copped two heavy defeats from Ken Hinkley’s men last year. Expect Port to notch a third straight win over Brisbane.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 32 points

 

North Melbourne v Gold Coast, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

In the eyes of some, North Melbourne are one of the better 0-5 sides we have seen. It is not a tag Brad Scott and his players would enjoy. The same applies to Kangaroos supporters who have witnessed the team butcher winning positions not once, not twice, but three times already this season.

Because of their solid form, they have been installed as favourites for this match, but those willing to take the shorts should remember that Gold Coast did beat the Kangaroos on three straight occasions before their one and only meeting last season. A reason for the Suns’ good record has been their ability to expose North’s lack of leg speed.

Gold Coast coach Rodney Eade will know full well that he might have his hands full stopping Ben Brown and Mason Wood without injured duo Steven May and Rory Thompson. Could he be tempted to roll the dice and get into a shootout given he boasts the likes of Tom Lynch and Peter Wright?  Gary Ablett and Aaron Hall would certainly enjoy that. Watch this space.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 16 points

 

West Coast v Fremantle, Domain Stadium 6.10pm

West Coast have made a habit of bouncing back strongly following an interstate disappointment. That trend will certainly be tested here as they seek a fourth win for the year in the wake of another horror show at the MCG opposed to Hawthorn. Not only are they without Jamie Cripps (ankle) and Jackson Nelson (broken wrist), they are confronting a Fremantle side oozing confidence.

The Dockers rallied for a third successive come-from-behind win when they stunned North Melbourne last week. The influence of David Mundy was magnificent, while the quality of fellow veterans Michael Johnson, Nat Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands and Stephen Hill couldn’t be missed. The absence of Hill (hamstring) is a hindrance for Fremantle because, in all likelihood, it will mean Mundy might have to abandon his important role as a deep forward to return to the midfield for more minutes.

West Coast will hope Sam Mitchell makes his return from a week on the sidelines with an ankle injury to assist Matt Priddis, Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff. The Eagles need to hold their ground around the stoppages. Provided they do that, their forward line of Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Mark LeCras have the runs on the board at Domain Stadium to guide their team home.

VERDICT: West Coast by 11 points

Ross Glendinning Medal: Andrew Gaff

Sunday, 30 April

Essendon v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

Melbourne have been serviceable for their first five games under new coach Simon Goodwin. But they are 2-3, riding a three-match losing streak and entering this contest without their preferred two ruckmen Max Gawn (hamstring) and Jake Spencer (AC joint). On the flip side, Jordan Lewis returns from his three-match suspension.

Lewis owes the football club. The losing sequence has coincided with his absence and how he responds will be crucial. Essendon were terrific on Anzac Day against Collingwood. They won the key contests more often than not and had a fistful of game-breakers, including Joe Daniher, Orazio Fantasia and Zach Merrett.

The Demons are playing an exciting brand and will ask plenty of questions of the Bombers, who need to find a way to defend strongly, well aware that Melbourne in open space are a dangerous commodity. Essendon’s efficiency inside their attacking 50m against the Magpies was outstanding. It would be a surprise if the Demons allowed them the same ratio of entries to goals as Collingwood did.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 10 points

 

Geelong v Collingwood, MCG 1.20pm

They might not have the same appeal as Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney and the Western Bulldogs when it comes to premiership consideration, but Geelong can’t do any more than win. And win they do. The Cats improved to 5-0 with a powerful finish against St Kilda and that formline is surely strong enough to have them well placed for this assignment. 

Collingwood continue to generate a lot of football through the midfield, but their lack of potency in attack — a combination of poor skills, decision making and reliable targets — is a major factor in why they sit 1-4 and coach Nathan Buckley is under mounting pressure. In a perfect world, Collingwood would like a sustained arm-wrestle and then bank on some individual brilliance to break the game open, as they did against Sydney in round three.

But when your opposition boasts match winners the ilk of Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Hawkins, Daniel Menzel and Steven Motlop to name a few, you face a genuine dilemma. Barring a minor miracle, the Cats win with plenty up their sleeve.

VERDICT: Geelong by 39 points

 

Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval 2.40pm

There is no disputing that the current Richmond side is a very solid football unit. Is that good enough to withstand the might of the Crows at Adelaide Oval? We suspect not, but the football world will be watching intently to try to get a handle on where the Tigers really sit.

Watching Adelaide go about their business is as enjoyable, perhaps even more fulfilling, than witnessing Geelong strut their stuff under Mark Thompson from 2007 onwards when they relentlessly attacked opposition sides through the corridor. The Crows move the football with the speed an ice hockey team transfers the puck from one end of the rink to the other.

And when the ball is forward of centre, look out. Taylor Walker, Eddie Betts, Tom Lynch, Andy Otten and Charlie Cameron are dangerous options, their task made easier by the clinical nature of the entries. But the Tigers are doing a lot right. Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt and recruits Josh Caddy and Dion Prestia have had excellent campaigns, and the second-tier players are performing their roles. In saying that, there is no reason whatsoever to tip against Adelaide at home for the foreseeable future.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 29 points

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