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Digby’s AFL Preview – Finals Week 3

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 22 September

Adelaide v Geelong, Adelaide Oval 5.50pm

It hasn’t been plain sailing for Adelaide since their emphatic qualifying final win over Greater Western Sydney a fortnight ago. Indeed, the loss of Brodie Smith (knee) and Mitch McGovern (hamstring) denies coach Don Pyke of two critically important players clearly in his best team due to their ability to provide something different from many of their teammates.

But success in finals football is about overcoming adversity and you suspect Adelaide are well placed to do here. That said, Geelong hit town knowing full well that they have a good record against the Crows, even at their Adelaide Oval fortress. Fresh from defying the odds (and adversity) against Sydney without important midfielder Cam Guthrie (calf) and key defender Tom Lonergan (illness), the Cats will fancy their chances of going one step further than last season.

The Crows were able to snap a losing sequence against Geelong in their most recent meeting in round 18, a performance that featured a quality midfield display, in particular from Rory Sloane, who was allowed to run free for much of the night. Scott Selwood will surely go to the Crows’ No.1 midfield man on this occasion as he returns from appendix surgery. If he can have an influence alongside the in-form Crouch brothers, Matt and Brad, the overall spread of Adelaide talent might be too much for the Cats, even taking into consideration the expected influence of Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 18 points.

Saturday, 23 September

Richmond v GWS, MCG, 2.45pm

Greater Western Sydney have enjoyed a considerable amount of concessions from the AFL that has allowed them to develop into a quality team in such a short space of time. But there is no denying that they will richly deserve their place in a grand final if they can overcome Richmond at a heaving MCG dripping in yellow and black.

Save for a World Cup soccer qualifier in a faraway land, this might just be the most hostile arena a sporting side could ever face. An expected crowd of 95,000 is likely to feature only a few thousand Giants supporters, making the Giants’ task a daunting one to put it mildly. In saying that, this GWS side does play with a swagger and has unshakeable faith in its ability — which can be both a positive and negative.

For all the tactics and planning that goes into a football game, the result in this match seems certain to hinge on one major element — pressure. Can the Giants withstand the enormous pressure the Tigers will bring, the levels which overwhelmed Geelong a fortnight earlier? It is up to Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly, Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel and Lachie Whitfield to hold their ground midfield to set the tone. Richmond were superbly guided by captain Trent Cotchin in the qualifying final and with him leading the way, the Tigers went about their business with a ruthless edge. The forecast of fine, albeit windy, conditions helps GWS, but the home-ground advantage cannot be ignored.

VERDICT: Richmond by 28 points

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