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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 6

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Western Bulldogs v Carlton, Etihad Stadium, 5.50pm

The Western Bulldogs’ freefall continued in dramatic style last weekend when they were pumped by Fremantle at Optus Stadium. It wasn’t that long ago the Bulldogs were on top of the AFL heap. But just 27 games after winning the premiership, they are flirting with the scrapheap.

Indeed, if they cannot get over the top of a winless Carlton in this match, their fading finals hopes will be over. They will be boosted by the return of Lachie Hunter from suspension to bolster a midfield that should be expected to more than hold its own against a Blues running division that relies heavily on Patrick Cripps.

Carlton were competitive against West Coast last week as Brendon Bolton opted to revert back to a defensive game plan. It would be a shock if he deviated from that here. Even still, that might not be enough.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 13 points

SATURDAY

Geelong v Sydney, GMBHA Stadium, 11.45am

The news on Tuesday morning that Sydney would head to Geelong without Lance Franklin and Dan Hannebery was a hammer blow to the Swans’ chances. Adding insult to injury, Cats captain Joel Selwood had his one-game suspension overturned later that day.

Franklin’s absence is significant for Sydney, even more so when you consider John Longmire and his coaching staff are also without their second best key forward, Sam Reid (quad). At the other end of the ground, the Cats should welcome back Tom Hawkins, who was a late withdrawal against Port Adelaide because of back tightness.

The Cats simply shut down the Power’s ball movement and rendered their forward line useless in a complete display. Given the absence of Franklin and Reid, not to mention the unavailability of Hannebery, it’s difficult to see how Sydney will manufacture a winning total.

VERDICT: Geelong by 21 points

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 12.10pm

There is one side Port Adelaide would not like to play at present given their forward line struggles, which have been seriously impacted by the injury-enforced absence of All-Australian ruckman Paddy Ryder. And that team is North Melbourne.

The Kangaroos kept Hawthorn to only three scoring shots in the first half last Sunday as Todd Goldstein produced a performance that was a throwback to his own All-Australian season. If Goldstein can again have a pronounced impact at the centre bounces, twin towers Ben Brown and Jarrad Waite, along with captain Jack Ziebell, will ask a lot of the Power defence.

Port have the talent to stretch the necks of any side in the competition, but they need more from recruits Jack Watts and Steven Motlop forward of centre. The Kangaroos are a difficult side to handle at Etihad Stadium, yet the Power have beaten them there on their last two visits and the absence of Kangaroos 2017 club champion Shaun Higgins (concussion) tips the scales in their favour.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 8 points

GWS v Brisbane, Spotless Stadium, 2.35pm

Brisbane supporters are entitled to feel both encouraged and frustrated. A 0-5 start to a season and two single-figure margin losses will do that. Unfortunately for the long-suffering Lions fans, they won’t be basking in the glow of an overdue victory after this match.

Greater Western Sydney’s annual struggle with St Kilda at Etihad Stadium continued last weekend and, to be fair, they were fortunate to escape with a draw. The Giants will look to make amends here and have the weapons to overpower the Lions, who aren’t getting enough from both All-Australian Dayne Zorko or their forward line.

VERDICT: GWS by 54 points

Hawthorn v St Kilda, UTAS Stadium, 5.25pm

St Kilda produced their best display of the season last weekend against Greater Western Sydney and were nearly rewarded for it. In saying that, a draw is obviously better than a loss and helped prop up a season that was going down the gurgler.

Whether it is sustainable however is an entirely different matter. Hawthorn will test the Saints at their Tasmanian fortress, themselves desperate to bounce back after being outclassed by North Melbourne. The Hawks are missing key personnel and will be required to make do without James Sicily, who was suspended for the second time this year on Tuesday night.

Hawthorn will be hoping to generate more ball midfield than they did against the Kangaroos and should they achieve that, the Saints back line will be under enormous pressure to restrict the hosts to a total that isn’t out of reach of its forward line, which is struggling to apply scoreboard pressure.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 19 points

Adelaide v Gold Coast, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

Adelaide defied the odds and underlined their premiership credentials when they stunned Sydney at the SCG last Friday night. A performance resembling anywhere near that level will be sufficient to take care of Gold Coast.

There is no denying the Suns, their round four capitulation to West Coast aside, are a far harder unit to play against under Stuart Dew than we have seen previously. The Suns endeavour to take away the opposition’s strengths and have a defence-first attitude.

That is just as well because if the Crows forward line, superbly led against the Swans by Taylor Walker and Josh Jenkins, gets enough looks, it has the capacity to kick a total that will be beyond Gold Coast, who are yet to chalk up a win over the Crows.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 38 points

SUNDAY

Essendon v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

There were prolonged stages on ANZAC eve and ANZAC Day when Melbourne and Essendon were either terrified or incapable of taking the game on, their inability to ask serious questions of their opponents disheartening for their supporters.

Given where their respective seasons are at, you would like to think Demons coach Simon Goodwin and his Essendon counterpart John Worsfold would be making some serious alterations in the abbreviated lead-up to this game. Jesse Hogan is a serious talent, but he is getting football far too high to be the goal-kicking weapon Melbourne need him to be.

At the other end of the ground, Joe Daniher has forgotten what it is like to kick a bag. With such a hasty turnaround from rounds five to six for these sides, the fact that Melbourne have a few extra hours to prepare could be significant.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 20 points

Collingwood v Richmond, MCG, 1.20pm

There is a lot to like about the way Collingwood are going about their business at present. They are showing traits of what has made Richmond a feared outfit and as we know, that can only be a good thing. Unfortunately for the Magpies however, they now run headlong into the side they are aspiring to be.

The Tigers bent Melbourne for three quarters with their unrelenting pressure on Anzac eve. Unsurprisingly, the Demons then snapped in the final quarter, allowing Richmond to run free and record a thumping victory. Richmond’s pressure is elite and Damien Hardwick will be looking to dial it up again to close down the Magpies’ slick handballing game.

The Tigers spread the goal-kicking load against Melbourne and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Dustin Martin spend more time in attack than normal given his work rate and the quick turnaround between games. Having booted six goals against Brisbane in round four, that shapes as a real issue for the Magpies.

VERDICT: Richmond by 28 points

Fremantle v West Coast, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

Midway through last month, Fremantle annihilated West Coast in a JLT Community Series game at Joondalup. Yes, it was only the pre-season, but many left the ground thinking the Eagles were going to struggle in 2018 and Fremantle would be better than first thought.

Half of that is right. The Dockers have been very solid, save for the first-round loss to Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval. But it is the performance of the Eagles that has caught the football world by surprise. Adam Simpson’s men have done nothing wrong all season and, courtesy of their 4-1 record, have been installed as favourites for this historic clash.

The battle between Aaron Sandilands and Nic Naitanui-Scott Lycett will have a huge bearing on the outcome. Sandilands continues to be a dominant force, while Naitanui has picked up from where he left off in 2016, after his 2017 was wiped out following a knee reconstruction. If the Eagles duo can nullify Sandilands and white-hot Fremantle captain Nat Fyfe is harnessed somehow, they are entitled to breathe a little easier.

VERDICT: West Coast by 8 points

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