Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 3

Posted on April 5, 2018 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Carlton v Collingwood, MCG, 5.50pm

Just 120 minutes. That is all the time needed to determine which of these two sides’ finals hopes, considered by most to be slim at best, are extinguished. Yes, making such a call three rounds into a season is a touch premature, but there will be no coming back for either of these teams if they slide to 0-3.

Collingwood bounced back from a shoddy effort against Hawthorn in round one to stretch the neck of Greater Western Sydney last week. A little bit more composure around the ground at stages and some finishing inside attacking 50 could have delivered a win. Their effort came a few hours after Carlton fumbled and bumbled their way to a loss against Gold Coast.

The Magpies’ midfield always finds a lot of ball but with Daniel Wells still absent, don’t have the silky ball users, Scott Pendlebury aside, to hurt their opponents. As for Carlton, they rely heavily on midfield bull Patrick Cripps to do much of the heavy lifting. It is unlikely this game will scale any great heights, but with so much riding on the result, it makes for compulsory viewing.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 3 points

---

SATURDAY

Port Adelaide v Brisbane, Adelaide Oval, 11.45am

If there were any doubts about how Port Adelaide were travelling, they were dispelled last Sunday at the SCG. Trailing Sydney at half-time, the Power were brutally effective in the second half and came away with their second win in the Harbour City against the Swans in 12 months. They are the real deal.

Brisbane are 0-2, but it is impossible to knock their efforts against St Kilda and Melbourne. They will need to crank it up a cog however and maintain the rage for a full four quarters if they are going to get over the Power. Ken Hinkley’s midfield acquitted itself well against Sydney in the absence of Paddy Ryder, with Ollie Wines in particular outstanding.

Much interest will focus on Tom Rockliff fronting up against the Brisbane side he used to captain. It could be the spark he needs to ignite his season after two quiet displays to launch his Port career.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 45 points

Melbourne v North Melbourne, MCG, 12.10pm

Death, taxes and North Melbourne beating Melbourne. They are the three certainties in life. The Demons have lost their last 17 matches against the Kangaroos, with twin defeats to a pretty ordinary North side in 2017 conspiring to deny them a chance to return to finals action for the first time since 2006.

Does the drought end here? Yes. The Demons displayed their increasing maturity at the Gabba last Saturday night when they pulled away from Brisbane, who had challenged strongly after half-time. Jeff Garlett was superb and Jesse Hogan proved the focal point in attack we know he is capable of being.

Talking of focal points, North’s Ben Brown booted six goals in the upset of St Kilda on Good Friday, a return that is significant given the issues he has caused the Demons in recent times. The Kangaroos overpowered the Saints, but their first-half finishing was poor. If they are as wasteful against Melbourne, they will pay a high price.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 20 points

Gold Coast v Fremantle, Optus Stadium, 2.35pm

It has taken longer than many anticipated — or hoped — but Gold Coast now look like a proper AFL outfit. They are unified, selfless and willing to work extremely hard when they aren’t in possession. The appointment of long-time Sydney assistant Stuart Dew has had a profound impact in a short space of time.

Wins over North Melbourne and Carlton is a terrific start, but their progress would go to another level if they were to upset Fremantle, fresh from a stirring effort against Essendon. The loss of Bradley Hill (knee) denies the Dockers a line-breaking midfielder on a ground that is proving extremely slick, but you suspect Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale and co. will more than pick up the slack.

Tom Lynch hardly got out of second gear against the Blues, yet still booted eight goals. He will find one of Alex Pearce or Joel Hamling completely different to Liam Jones, but there is no denying he is still capable of wielding an enormous influence.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 19 points

Sydney v GWS, SCG, 5.25pm

It wasn’t that long ago that Sydney used to feast on Greater Western Sydney, routinely monstering their little brothers to not only grab four points, but bolster their percentage. How times have changed.

The Giants are very much the real deal. A 2-0 start was expected given their initial two opponents were the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood, but the manner in which they won both games suggests they are tracking very nicely. The loss of Tom Scully (ankle) hurts, but All-Australian forward Toby Greene (hamstring) returns to bolster an attack that boasts a rejuvenated Jeremy Cameron.

Talking of high-calibre spearheads, Lance Franklin booted four goals in the loss to Port Adelaide, giving him 12 for the year already. But he cannot do it all. John Longmire and his coaches need to find other avenues if they are to be successful throughout September. The Giants have defended stoutly in the opening fortnight and if they can restrict Franklin from getting off the leash, they can sneak home.

VERDICT: GWS by 10 points

St Kilda v Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 5.25pm

It has been a long week at Moorabbin following the dreadful display against North Melbourne. The pressure on everyone at the club, in particular coach Alan Richardson, is at unprecedented levels so early in a season. A proper response against Adelaide, who have had their measure of late, is non-negotiable.

The Crows opened their account last Thursday night opposed to Richmond, with maligned pair Josh Jenkins and Taylor Walker imposing themselves like key forwards should. Adelaide’s ability to overcome the loss of David Mackay (concussion) and Matt Crouch (hamstring) was full of merit, given Rory Sloane (foot) was hampered.

The Saints pride themselves on their pressure skills and to say that area of their game was a fair way off against North, is an understatement. Adelaide coach Don Pyke will surely have his players on red alert for an ambush, but the Crows are a seasoned unit with class on every line. If they hold their ground early, they prevail late.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 18 points

---

SUNDAY

Richmond v Hawthorn, MCG, 11.10am

The challenges just keep on coming when you are the top dog. Richmond failed to build on their round one win over Carlton last Thursday night, succumbing to a quality performance from Adelaide in the grand final rematch. That assignment done and dusted, the Tigers now front up to a 2-0 Hawthorn who look very much like a top-eight, perhaps even top-four contender.

Respective coaches Damien Hardwick and Alastair Clarkson aren’t into the habit of employing lock-down taggers. That is music to the ears of football followers who love watching A-grade midfielders go about their business. Dustin Martin has come back from his staggeringly successful 2017 in outstanding nick, while ball magnet Tom Mitchell has taken his game to a new level. The Hawks left-footer has amassed 94 disposals in the first two rounds.

A feature of Richmond’s premiership triumph was the pressure applied by their small forwards. Hawthorn have also been tremendous in that area of the ground in the opening fortnight. On what we have witnessed in the first two weeks, not a lot separates these two teams. An extra few days break Richmond enjoyed just might though.

VERDICT: Richmond by 23 points

Western Bulldogs v Essendon, Etihad Stadium, 1.20pm

Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge was quick to inform everyone last weekend that his team was light years away from the outfit that snared the 2016 premiership. No kidding. The Bulldogs were putrid against West Coast. It was hard to work out what was worse — their lack of intent or lack of skills.

Essendon also had a round two they would like to forget — against Fremantle in the Bermuda Triangle that is Perth — but there is more to work with as far as John Worsfold is concerned. The Bombers were guilty of turning the football over too much and didn’t get enough from their big names, notably Joe Daniher and Jake Stringer.

Stringer will confront his former teammates for the first time. Worsfold and those responsible for luring him to the club will be hoping he can wind back the clock. If he does, the focus on Beveridge will intensify.

VERDICT: Essendon by 32 points

West Coast v Geelong, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

Respective coaches Adam Simpson and Chris Scott would have had sleepless nights this week. Content in the knowledge that Nic Naitanui and Scott Lycett give him a dominant ruck advantage, Simpson would have contemplated how best to halt Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett.

As for Scott, he would be understandably comfortable with the talent he has at his disposal in the form of the “Big Three”, but genuinely concerned at how they fare at ground level given the expected influence of the Eagles’ twin towers. Complicating matters for the Cats is a short week and a flight west to a ground they haven’t seen previously.

The Eagles had their way with the Western Bulldogs, but can expect a far sterner test, even taking into account the Cats’ shortcomings in the ruck and defence. Geelong haven’t been able to generate as many forward-50 entries as Scott would like, but when the ball has got there, the Cats have looked dangerous. It is a genuine flip of the coin game.

VERDICT: Geelong by 4 points

Bet Now