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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 15

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Essendon v GWS, Marvel Stadium, 5.20pm

Having been embarrassed on the Thursday night stage last week, Essendon need to respond quickly to ensure their 2019 season isn’t consigned to the scrapheap and the blowtorch applied to coach John Worsfold.

Taking on an opponent other than Greater Western Sydney would be much appreciated, but the Bombers need to play the cards they have been dealt. They did receive a boost in the lead-up to this match, with GWS tagger Matt de Boer ruled out because of a shoulder injury.

His absence should allow Zach Merrett and Dylan Shiel to run relatively unchecked, but they were part of a midfield unit that was gutted by West Coast. GWS have a fleet of high-class on-ballers, indeed they are dripping with class on every line and hit this match fresh off their mid-season bye.

VERDICT: GWS by 23 points

FRIDAY

Geelong v Adelaide, GMHBA Stadium, 5.50pm

As sure as night follows day, Geelong lose after a bye. Their defeat to Port Adelaide last Saturday night was the eighth successive match they had dropped after enjoying a week off.

As disturbing as that is, they respond to the alarming sequence brilliantly and will be confident of bouncing back yet again against Adelaide, who have not won in Geelong since 2003. The Cats didn’t handle the physicality of Port as well as they should have, but the Crows aren’t renowned as being that same hard-edged outfit.

It would be a shock if Geelong’s blue-chip midfield was to have another poor two hours on the job, while the player who gives Adelaide a point of difference with his much-needed dash, Wayne Milera (back), is a doubtful starter.

VERDICT: Geelong by 32 points

SATURDAY

Hawthorn v West Coast, MCG, 11.45am

Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson is widely regarded as being the best in the business. Four premierships, including a hat-trick of flags in the equalised era of drafting and the salary cap, and regenerating a list on multiple occasions will do that.

But he is facing a real fight to keep the Hawks relevant in 2019. They have lost their past three and now face up to West Coast, who will be boosted by the return of Nic Naitanui. The presence of Naitanui will cause a spike in the midfield, which in turn should ensure the potent West Coast forward line has sufficient looks.

At the other end of the ground, the Eagles must make do without the suspended Jeremy McGovern, but the Hawks are lacking the firepower of late to trouble the better sides.

VERDICT: West Coast by 19 points

Sydney v Gold Coast, SCG, 2.35pm

There are some who feel Sydney might still be in a position to push for the finals given their mid-season resurgence.

While it would be a mighty effort, the club has a history of defying the odds. And it will need to do so again considering talisman Lance Franklin (hamstring) will be missing for several weeks. What is not in dispute is the Swans can’t afford any unexpected slip-ups in the run home, including this match.

Gold Coast have forgotten how to win and while their commitment to the cause is unquestioned, their inability to hit the scoreboard is proving costly. It is an area that the Swans have started to correct of late and as such, their win-loss record is improving.

VERDICT: Sydney by 29 points

Collingwood v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 5.25pm

Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley was livid with his side’s display last Sunday against the Western Bulldogs, even though it won. How the Magpies respond on the quick back-up against a refreshed North Melbourne will be intriguing.

One player who Buckley wasn’t savage with was Brodie Grundy, who was simply outstanding yet again and his tussle with Todd Goldstein will have a large bearing on the outcome here, with the likes of Scott Pendlebury and Ben Cunnington looking to cash in on their supply.

The Magpies were wasteful against the Bulldogs and the balance of their forward line looked out of kilter without Jaidyn Stephenson. The Kangaroos have looked to be more up-tempo under Rhyce Shaw and will ask questions of the Magies’ back six, but the overall class of last year’s grand finalists is undeniable.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 11 points

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

Port Adelaide breathed life back into their finals hopes with an upset win over Geelong, a result that was achieved on the back of a brilliant ruck display from Scott Lycett.

The West Coast premiership hero has well and truly displaced Paddy Ryder as Port’s No.1 big man and he will be licking his lips at the prospect of going up against Tim English, the young West Australian who is talented, but raw and was schooled for the second time this year last weekend by Brodie Grundy.

The Power adopted a physical stance against the Cats and if they bring the same intensity and uncompromising approach, it is hard to see how a Bulldogs side that lacks real cohesion forward of centre can cause an upset.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 32 points

SUNDAY

St Kilda v Richmond, Marvel Stadium, 11.10am

Contained in every season, is a quarter or a performance that is utterly unacceptable. A coach killer. For St Kilda’s Alan Richardson, that moment occurred last weekend against Brisbane when his side conceded nine third-quarter goals en route to a heavy defeat.

Out of nowhere, the guillotines were out. Richardson is still in control of his own destiny, but the Saints desperately need to start winning games against teams higher than them on the ladder. It has been an Achilles heel all the way through his tenure.

Richmond aren’t at the level we saw for the bulk of 2017 and last year because of a rash of injuries, but they are still capable and will be eager to begin the back half of the season strongly after their bye.

VERDICT: Richmond by 40 points

Brisbane v Melbourne, Gabba, 1.20pm

Much was made of Melbourne’s win last weekend against Fremantle, the main point being it came after some strategic changes to positions in the football department. What got last in the wash however, was the fact Fremantle were cruelled by injuries during the course of the game they led for extended periods.

The Demons’ celebrated new-found purpose will be put to the test here when they venture north to take on a Brisbane side that absolutely annihilated St Kilda last weekend. A sturdy defence, dominant midfield and exciting forward line, headlined by Charlie Cameron, was the catalyst.

The Lions have been a tough nut to crack on their home ground this season and if coach Chris Fagan is right, the bye seemed to have really energised his players. Over to you Melbourne.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 28 points

Fremantle v Carlton, Optus Stadium, 3.20pm

Having lost Jesse Hogan and Stephen Hill to injuries in the narrow loss to Melbourne last weekend, Fremantle received a much-needed win earlier this week regarding Michael Walters’ visit to the tribunal.

Walters is in All-Australian form and represents the class that will help the Dockers get over the line against Carlton, who have found their mojo under David Teague. The Blues stormed home against the Western Bulldogs before their mid-season bye, just missing despite Charlie Curnow’s seven goals.

Curnow and Harry McKay are quality young key talls, but the prospect of wet weather could diminish their effectiveness, whereas the Dockers will be comfortable with the form and finishing ability of Walters and Brandon Matera.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 20 points

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