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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 11

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

SATURDAY

Port Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval, 2.35pm

Port Adelaide sit on top of the ladder, yet are not considered genuine premiership contenders by many. That title belongs to both West Coast and Richmond.

The Power have already dismissed the Eagles this season and can go a long way towards securing top spot with another massive scalp here in the form of the white-hot Tigers. Fresh off a drubbing of the Western Bulldogs, the premiers mauled Brisbane during the week, with Dustin Martin, Liam Baker and Shai Bolton excelling.

In an ominous sign for opposition clubs, both Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch impacted the scoreboard against the Lions and will fancy their chances of again having a huge say in the outcome of this match.

VERDICT: Richmond by 9 points

Brisbane v Western Bulldogs, Gabba, 5.40pm

Those who like to hit “overs” on the game total when having a bet on TABtouch for AFL games will think long and hard what is the best approach for this contest.

Brisbane lost to Richmond last round after managing 4.17 (41), a wasteful performance that came 24 hours after the Western Bulldogs butchered chances in front of goal in their loss to Port Adelaide. If the compass is working for both sides, they are capable of piling on the points. It is a big if, however.

If Josh Bruce is again persisted with at selection by Luke Beveridge, he is not going to have an easy day at the office. Harris Andrews is one of the best key defenders in the competition and the odds are he will stifle the Bulldogs’ No.1 avenue to goal.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 23 points

SUNDAY

West Coast v Carlton, Optus Stadium, 1.35pm

West Coast showed tremendous resolve to get over the top of Geelong last weekend to notch their fifth win in a line, a significant streak in such an unusual season. The belief gained from that victory will be enormous as Adam Simpson gears up for another premiership tilt.

The perfect conditions the Eagles encountered against the Cats will be replaced by a soggy Optus Stadium for this clash with Carlton. Big-bodied sides with good skill levels normally fare well in such conditions. We know West Coast are both.

The Blues started like a house on fire against Hawthorn last week, but downed tools after quarter-time … not for the first time they have been on the wrong end of such a fluctuation in the course of a game. This is an assignment that appears beyond them.

VERDICT: West Coast by 25 points

Melbourne v North Melbourne, Adelaide Oval, 4.10pm

Melbourne proved on Wednesday night what they were capable of. Unfortunately for the Demons, the performance was contained to the last quarter only against an Adelaide side very much out on its feet.

The previous three terms were very Melbourne — flashes of brilliance offset by brain fades and inefficiency. The tone of that match though was set by Jack Viney and if he and fellow midfielders Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Ed Langdon and Angus Brayshaw pick up where they left off, North Melbourne are going to be in trouble.

The Kangaroos were outclassed and outworked by Geelong at the Gabba midweek, with their lack of running power clear for all to see. Unless they have freshened up remarkably quickly, it is difficult to see them cover the ground with Melbourne.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 13 points

MONDAY

St Kilda v Geelong, Gabba, 4.10pm

In a wacky AFL season that has placed more demands on players than we have ever seen before, it is difficult to confidently predict a result. But we can safely say that St Kilda are destined to play finals for the first time since 2011.

Their up-tempo style, coupled with an ability to hit the scoreboard, has served them well under Brett Ratten and will ensure they have the full attention of Geelong in this clash. The Cats were terrific last week, overcoming a short break and a long flight to dismiss North Melbourne.

Patrick Dangerfield played predominantly forward in that match, raising expectations that he will be unleashed through the middle here. His ability to alter the direction of the game against the Kangaroos was profound and it wouldn’t be a shock if he has the attention of the in-form Jack Steele at stages.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 8 points

Fremantle v Hawthorn, Optus Stadium, 6.40pm

Having been criticised roundly for their effort against Geelong, Fremantle had a lick of the ice-cream against Collingwood to vindicate everything rookie coach Justin Longmuir has been trying to implement in the face of a mounting injury list.

The Dockers now need to back that up, a task aided by the recall of veteran pair Stephen Hill and James Aish. They help bolster a back half which is going to be tested by the class and experience of Jack Gunston, Luke Breust, Chad Wingard and Jarman Impey.

Fremantle captain Nat Fyfe will be better for his return against the Magpies and he will need to be to lead a Dockers midfield that runs headlong into an opposition on-ball department headed by Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara, Isaac Smith and James Worpel.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 15 points

Same Game Combo: Hawks Win by 1-39 + Mitchell/O’Meara/Worpel all get 20+ Disposals @ $7.75

TUESDAY

Adelaide vs Collingwood, Adelaide Oval, 4.35pm

There have been multiple occasions this season where Collingwood’s attacking deficiencies have been badly exposed. You would be surprised if tonight’s encounter against Adelaide is one of them.

The Crows have struggled to hit the scoreboard all season and their reticence to show any dare when transitioning from the back half has been an undeniable Achilles heel. Rookie coach Matthew Nicks has had to make do with a swag of his preferred players also, making his task all the more daunting.

Collingwood also have their share of injuries, but are still able to lean on more experience than the youthful Crows. This is a match that they just need to win. Barring a disaster, they will.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 18 points 

Same Game Combo: Pies Win + Under 111.5 Total Match Points + Sidebottom / Adams both get 20+ Disposals @ $4.20

TUESDAY

Gold Coast v Essendon, Metricon Stadium, 5.10pm

Very few people thought Gold Coast could be in a position to challenge for a finals position at this point of the year when the season resumed after the coronavirus-enforced break.

Yet they sit in 12th place entering tonight’s home game against Essendon and could close to within a game of eighth-placed Greater Western Sydney with their first win in four matches. The Bombers are no pushovers, however. They asked many questions of GWS last Friday night, their second term in particular evidence of their capabilities.

Gold Coast took a dim view of Alex Sexton’s recent form, dropping him for tonight. His omission places greater onus on Izak Rankine and Ben King to stand up and impact the scoreboard. The tyros will relish the responsibility.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 12 points

Same Game Combo: Suns + Miller / Swallow / Greenwood / Ellis all get 15+ Disposals @ $2.90

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