Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Final Saturday at Rosehill before we head to Rnadwick for day 1 of The Championships next week. Unfortunately we are on weather watch with showers forecast both Thursday & Friday which would send the Thursday morning soft (6) rating nearer the heavy range, let’s hope not. We get things underway with a 1300m Midway where I’m with (10) ANNIE’S ROSE who is very well placed at this level. Luckless first up, strong to the line second up, down in class today rising only 1kg. (4) AUDREY’S LANE won well first up when able to find the front, drawn out in a race with more tempo about she may work a little harder this time however certainly not out of it should things pan out. (8) DANISH PRINCE next best, he’s a very consistent 7yo who has performed well on all types of going.

Numbers: 10 – 4 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

Interesting race where we get to see the Yulong owned, Chris Waller trained (2) BARNAVARA go around for the first time in Australia. Irish bred she was purchased for almost 10 million (AUD) with a breeding career obviously the goal however she can further enhance her value with a strong performance here. When last seen she was a Group 1 winner in Paris, should be too good for these. (3) WOOTTON VERNI will improve with the last run at 2000m, should at least place whilst the other international (6) CAVIAR HEIGHTS can’t be taken lightly.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet: BARNAVARA TO WIN if not silly odds.

RACE 3

The Group 3 Baillieu continues the run of 2yo races this season where there’s no standouts. 17 acceptances including emergencies & only 2 have won. Stepping up to 1400m is going to suit some & not others, (4) PERSIAN WONDER does look to be searching for the longer trip, strong to the line in the Pago Pago he gets J. Mac to steer from a perfect gate. (5) DIAMETER comes up from Melbourne having placed 1 of 3 outings, hit the line ok the latest over this trip in the Sires Produce which has to count for something. (2) WOLF GAP certainly in the mix also. Wouldn’t be the least surprised to see an upset here.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 2 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

With wet conditions highly likely (11) CAPTAIN FURAI who is racing in consistent form gets the nod. Although a dry track winner on multiple occasions he’s definitely well placed on damp tracks & his effort last start was sound behind a smart type with strong form lines. Should the inside section be ok (he jumps from gate 1) he’ll prove very hard to beat. (14) AMREEKIYAH finished second in the same last start race, not as adept on wet ground as the top tip however if the rain stays away, she’s a chance. (6) CHARCOALS strips nice & fit third run back, will need things to pan out from the wide draw though.

Numbers: 11 – 14 – 6 – 13

Suggested Bet: CAPTAIN FURAI TO WIN.

RACE 5

The Group 2 Tulloch Stakes for the 3yo’s heading towards the Derby. I’m with the Victorian visitor (1) ARCORA who was a strong Flemington winner last start when taken to the front against older horses. Nash Rawiller has options here from the wide gate, I doubt he will lead however if not he’ll likely land the box seat. (2) SHANGRI LA BOY is an unknown on wet ground as he’s never been on anything worse than good, he won the 1800m Gloaming here & beat all bar Attica over 2000m in the Spring Champion, he’ll give a sight! (7) VARJAK peaking third up should figure.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

The 48th running of the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes. No surprise to see the lethal Waller/McDonald combo at the top of the market with the Yulong owned Kiwi filly Ohope Wins who was dominant living up to her name in the New Zealand Oaks just over a month ago. She’s not the only well fancied female from across the ditch going around here though, Belle Cheval who ran the extremely highly rated Well Written to an eyelash at Ellerslie 3 weeks ago will take on 2000m for the first time with Slipper winning jockey Zac Lloyd in the saddle.

Let’s look at some stats.

Saddlecloth no.1 has been successful the past 3 years, 12 times in the past 30 (Ohope wins this year).

14 of the past 30 winners have started favourite (7 odds on). Shortest priced winner Treasure The moment last year (2025).

Chris Waller & Gai Waterhouse the most successful current trainers with 3 wins.

James McDonald the most successful current jockey with 2 wins.

Long Legs looks the clear leader in the Group 1 Vinery; she’ll bowl along for a while however I expect she’ll be hoisting the white flag early in the straight. Visiting Kiwi fillies (1) OHOPE WINS & (2) BELLE CHEVAL are very smart as their records back home suggest, they will give away starts however I can’t say I’m too concerned about settling positions as their class will come to the top at the business end. (2) BELLE CHEVAL is yet to race at 2000m, she screamed home last start over 1500m & closed strongly when held up & too far back over 1600m in the Group 1 NZ Guineas back in November last year. She’s by Savabeel from a mare who has only had two others to race being 3 x Group 1 winner The Bostonian (won up to 1600m) & Cheval D’or a 2100m Group 2 winner. I’m going with her to beat her fellow Kiwi (1) OHOPE WINS with (3) SALTY PEARL & (4) PANOVA next best in what should be a cracking contest.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: BELLE CHEVAL TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 7

(6) IDLE FLYER was heavily backed to score first up however gave the winner a start in a race which was run to suit those on speed. She held her ground soundly in the straight though & has since been back to the trials winning impressively. Her second up record speaks for itself having won all 3 attempts & she’s also a soft & heavy track winner. (1) ARCTIC GLAMOUR holds a very average winning strike rate however she’s come back in great order this prep placing both outings, she’s right in this. (2) VERONA ROSE didn’t quite measure up to Group 1 company in The Coolmore after a good win at this level prior, she can bounce back whilst (13) MODELLA has plenty of upside, wouldn’t overlook.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 2 – 13

Suggested Bet: IDLE FLYER TO WIN/Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

The 64th running of the Group 1 Tancred, can last week’s Ranvet winner Aeliana who has been posted an odds-on favourite make it two Group 1’s in 7 days? Will she start as short as Hyperno in 1978 (1/2) or Avilius in 2019 ($1.60) who justified their cramped odds? We’ll soon find out!

Here’s a few helpful stats.

5 mares have been successful in the past 12 years, 8 in the past 30.

34 horses have backed up from the Ranvet into the Tancred in the same year with 10 successful & 9 finishing in the placings.

Ciaron Maher, Chris Waller & Gai Waterhouse the most successful current trainers with 2 wins.

James McDonald the most successful current jockey with 3 wins

Only 2 horses have won successive Tancred’s (Dubai Honour this year).

No clear leader at all in the Group 1 Tancred, there’s a few possibilities however anything could eventuate, I’m not going to speculate. (9) AELIANA finally returns to 2400m, who can forget her only run at the trip when blowing away her opposition in last year’s Group 1 Australian Derby at Randwick. That was the day she arrived, everybody saw it, she was going to towel up her rivals in the spring. Well, that didn’t eventuate & although not dominant last week the rise back up to 2400m sways me her way however I’ll be staying out unless I see black figures. I’m scared stiff of (1) DUBAI HONOUR who won this race last year & is unbeaten here on the track, he might be an 8yo however nobody’s told him that & he continues to travel the world successfully. (2) VAUBAN next best.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: AELIANA TO WIN ($2 of better).

RACE 9

Very open Doncaster Prelude which is no surprise. (14) LORD PENMAN didn’t set the world on fire with his first up victory, honestly I thought he’d win more convincingly. Second-up he went back off a wide draw before finding the line well over this trip. Today he draws a lot better & his form back in New Zealand on wet ground suggests he’s very well placed the wetter it gets. (1) SEPALS has Group 1 form all over his CV of late including a win at that level, wet tracks to date haven’t been a problem for him, huge chance. (4) ROBUSTO & (10) ENXUTO definite players should we not get into the heavy range whilst (10) GREEN FLY is a big player if we do, he’s a swimmer!

Numbers: 14 – 1 – 4 – 10

Suggested Bet: LORD PENMAN EACH-WAY/Box up top 5 selections in exotics.

RACE 10

The Group 3 Star Kingdom rounds out the day & it’s a very competitive race. Without doubt (5) MAL COUPLE has good ability however for mine he’s more effective on wet ground than dry & he’s going to get conditions to suit today. Should the inside section not prove a hindrance he’s going to prove very hard to beat. (1) GANGSTA GRANNY was dominant fresh, wide gate & plenty of weight however J. Mac sticks which is a positive pointer. No knock (6) KING’S SECRET who is super consistent.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 6 – 15

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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