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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 1 Begin

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Carlton v Richmond, MCG, 4.20pm

Richmond’s bid to avenge their unexpected preliminary final exit starts now. Right here. And that is not a good thing for Carlton, who have taken strides forward over summer as they look to improve on their 2-20 campaign last year.

The Tigers have enjoyed a low-key summer, away from the glare that comes with being the reigning premiers, but they have gone about their business in a diligent manner and look primed to hit the ground running, even though prized recruit Tom Lynch won’t be at his physical peak until the second half of the year as he recovers from knee surgery.

The Blues remain a work in progress, but there is understandable excitement around key forward Charlie Curnow, imposing WA midfielder Patrick Cripps and No.1 draft pick Sam Walsh. But there is excitement and then there is expectation. And the expectation in the football world is that the Tigers win this round one match comfortably.

VERDICT: Richmond by 33 points

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Geelong, MCG, 4.50pm

One of the more difficult tasks entering 2019 is getting a handle on where Geelong are at. Are they treading water? Are they still reliant on too few to get the job done? Or have they got a seasoned enough list to finally make a splash in September?

While we cannot say with any certainty where they are at, even at the completion of this match, we might get an inkling given their opponents, Collingwood, certainly look a more daunting proposition this year than they did last season when they stormed into the grand final and nearly snared another premiership.

Jamie Elliott and Darcy Moore shape as two A-grade recruits now they are injury-free, while Jordan Roughead strengthens a defence that was undersized for much of last year. Then there is the addition of Dayne Beams, who has returned “home” and slides into a midfield bursting at the seams with talent, even in the absence of Taylor Adams (finger).

VERDICT: Collingwood by 13 points

SATURDAY

Melbourne v Port Adelaide, MCG, 10.45am

It took longer than many fans wanted, but Melbourne finally showed what they were capable of in 2018, storming into September and then winning two finals before bowing out in a preliminary final at the hands of West Coast. It was an ominous warning for the rest of the competition given the  profile of their list.

The recruitment of Steven May to solidify a back line, which will be strengthened even further when Jake Lever returns from his knee reconstruction, ensures all bases are covered. Tom McDonald proved a damaging power forward last season and how he works in tandem with Sam Weideman following the departure of Jesse Hogan will be crucial.

Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley has flagged his intentions to embrace a more attacking game plan in 2019, but a sticking point could be the fact the Power aren’t an elite kicking side and will be without Charlie Dixon (ankle) for a chunk of the season, while Ollie Wines (shoulder) and Hamish Hartlett (knee) are unavailable for round one.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 32 points

Adelaide v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval, 1.35pm

Not a lot went right for Adelaide from grand final day 2017 until round 23 last year. It is a long time to be miserable and the Crows’ performances on-field, and demeanour off-field, reflected that. The controversial Gold Coast pre-season camp devastated the playing group, as did a string of injuries to key players.

Fast-forward to the start of 2019 and there is a buzz around South Australia, with expectations high the Crows are poised to again flex their considerable muscles. The return of Brad Crouch from a groin injury that wiped out his 2018 is massive, while the health of the squad is undeniable.

Conversely, the Hawks look underdone. No Tom Mitchell (broken leg) and Chad Wingard (calf) leaves Alastair Clarkson’s side without two genuine superstars. Luke Breust, Jack Gunston and Jaeger O’Meara are all high class, but one wonders whether there is a sufficient spread of talent to go toe-to-toe with the Crows before a sold-out Adelaide Oval crowd.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 45 points

Western Bulldogs v Sydney, Marvel Stadium, 4.25pm

The Western Bulldogs remain one of the most interesting case studies in the AFL. Two years after winning a premiership, they have fallen off the cliff and appear no closer to regaining their footing. Luke Beveridge was lauded after overseeing the drought-breaking flag, but his tenure will surely come into focus if he can’t find a solution to their issues.

Sydney have not won a flag since 2012, yet have remained competitive every year since, playing in finals each of the past six seasons, including the 2014 and 2016 grand finals. As has been the case for the past few seasons, much will depend on their proven performers, notably Lance Franklin, Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Jarrad McVeigh, Jake Lloyd and Heath Grundy, while talented youngsters Isaac Heeney and Callum Mills are the next wave.

One player who could seriously influence Sydney’s fortunes is Sam Reid. Extremely gifted, yet cruelled by injury for much of his career, Reid is the player who could slide into the elite category if he gets a run at it. He booted two goals in the second JLT Community Series match and might just hit the season proper at full steam.

VERDICT: Sydney by 11 points

Brisbane v West Coast, Gabba, 5.20pm

I can’t recall a 5-17 side in recent memory that has had more hype attached to it than Brisbane. There is no disputing the Lions are trending in the right direction, but the presumption they are ready to gatecrash the top eight in 2019 is slightly puzzling.

How they fare against West Coast will give everyone a true gauge of where they are at right now, and what is achievable for the season ahead. The Eagles have returned from their premiership campaign in excellent condition, both physically and mentally. They aren’t anywhere near their peak just yet — as you would expect — but their two JLT Community Series performances were slick.

Much interest surrounds how Jack Darling fares straight up. Maligned by many for a chunk of his career, Darling enjoyed a period of form last season that had him destined for his first All-Australian jumper until injury struck. His time could be now and a huge 2019 may just be jumpstarted under the Gabba lights.

VERDICT: West Coast by 23 points

SUNDAY

St Kilda v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium, 10.10am

The AFL is consistent in its message that the appropriate people have been appointed to the senior positions at Gold Coast to help the Suns first gain traction, and then start their climb up the ladder. Others are not so sure.

The list assembled by the Suns is arguably the worst we have seen at VFL-AFL level since Fitzroy in their final year. There is precious little to get excited about. As for St Kilda, they have endured a summer from hell and even though coach Alan Richardson is contracted until the end of 2020, he remains in the crosshairs of critics.

The Saints will be missing Jake Carlisle, Dan Hannebery, Dylan Roberton and Paddy McCartin for this clash, but even in their absence, they surely have enough talent and the benefit of home-ground advantage to prevail.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 32 points

GWS v Essendon, Sydney Showground Stadium, 12.20pm

At the start of the pre-season, Essendon were all the rage. Having recovered from a tardy start to 2018 to win 10 of their last 14 games, the recruitment of Dylan Shiel from GWS and Joe Daniher’s return from a serious groin injury were seen as the catalysts behind a sudden spike.

As the Bombers prepare for round one, the football world is now not so sure. Losses in their JLT Community Series games to Carlton and Geelong raised eyebrows, while a fresh calf tear to Daniher and untimely hamstring strain sustained by Cale Hooker leaves them vulnerable in key posts early in the year.

Compounding their issues is a trip north to face Greater Western Sydney, who still have class on all lines, despite an off-season where more proven talent exited the club. Any midfield boasting the ilk of Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly and an attack featuring a fit Toby Greene and Jeremy Cameron is cause for concern.

VERDICT: GWS by 24 points

Fremantle v North Melbourne, Optus Stadium, 3.20pm

The complexion of this match changed on Monday when it became apparent Jesse Hogan would not play following his Saturday night drinking session which led to him turning up unfit to train on Sunday morning. A forward line featuring Hogan and Rory Lobb would have asked many questions of an undersized and depleted North defence.

The Kangaroos enter the match believing they have an opportunity to boss the game in the most important area of the ground — the midfield. And understandably so. The addition of Jared Polec, Dom Tyson and Aaron Hall gives coach Brad Scott considerably more depth and eases the load on Shaun Higgins and Ben Cunnington.

Fremantle’s defence, led by Joel Hamling, Alex Pearce, Luke Ryan and Nathan Wilson, remains their strength. It could well be called upon to thwart a series of Kangaroos raids if the visitors get on top in the engine room.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 16 points

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