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David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Round 10

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Brisbane v Geelong, GABBA, 5.30pm

Brisbane made it 6 wins from their last 7 matches when able to defeat Carlton by 11 points last week. The Blues made a spirited run at the Lions in the second half and ate in to what was a 49 point Lions lead early in the third quarter but Brisbane just did enough. It was certainly not their sharpest half of the year but importantly they banked the 4 points.

Geelong took their season record to 6 wins and 3 losses when proving far too strong for Collingwood at the MCG winning by 54 points. Bailey Smith and Max Holmes again were the Architects for a lot of the Cats good work with Smith racking up 40 disposals and Holmes 33.

This match sees the two Grand Finalists from 2025 match motors in what should be a cracking contest. Geelong welcome back Gryan Miers, Jack Henry, Mark Blicavs and Mitchell Edwards while the Lions bring in Darcy Gardiner and Sam Marshall. These two sides have shown over a significant period that their best footy is as good as any in the game. With the aid of home ground advantage I’ll side with the Lions.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 15 points

Same Game Multi: Darcy Wilmot to get 15 or more disposals, Will Ashcroft to get 20 or more disposals, Max Homes and Bailey Smith to both get 25 or more disposals and Logan Morris to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.20*

FRIDAY

Sydney v Collingwood, SCG, 5.30pm

The Swans were fully tested against the Kangaroos at Marvel Stadium but they found a way to win as they have done all season sneaking home by 8 points. They remain on top of the AFL table with an 8 win 1 loss record and healthy percentage of 157.2%

The Pies were a little flat last week against the Cats and they were made to pay with Geelong saluting by 54 points. It leaves them in 10th spot on the table with 4 wins, 4 losses and a draw.

Sydney remain one of the hottest sides in the competition and they look likely to continue their excellent run of form. The Pies will be without Darcy Cameron, Darcy Moore, Pat Lipinski and Scott Pendlebury and their depth will be tested here.

VERDICT: Sydney by 33 points.

Same Game Multi: Sydney to win, Riley Bice, Brayden Maynard and Ned Long to all get 15 or more disposals and Isaac Heeney, Nick Blakey and Justin McInerney to all get 20 or more disposals @ $3.35*

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide, TIO Stadium, 6.10pm

Gold Coast continued their love affair with the TIO Stadium making it 9 straight wins at their home away from home defeating the Saints by 29 points. It leaves them in 6th position on the table with a 6 win, 3 loss record.

Port Adelaide lost yet another close game going down to the Bulldogs by just 2 points. They have now lost 4 matches this season by 3 points or less. It sees them in 13th position with 3 wins and 6 losses.

While Port Adelaide have been very competitive in most of their matches this season the Suns at TIO Stadium is a daunting task. The Suns clearly relish playing in the top end and this looks well within their capabilities.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 37 points.

Same Game Multi: Gold Coast to win, Bodhi Uwland, John Noble and Christian Petracca to all get 20 or more disposals, and Ben King and Mitch Georgiades to both kick 2 goals or more @ $4.10*

SATURDAY

Adelaide v North Melbourne, Adelaide Oval, 11.15am

The Crows have had a slow start to the season but they are gradually starting to turn things around with wins at 4 of their last 5 including last week’s 37 point victory over Richmond.

North Melbourne in contrast have lost 4 of their last 5 after a solid start to their campaign. It must be said though their 8 point loss to Sydney last week was quite possibly one of their better performances of the year.

Adelaide are hopeful Ah Chee, Fogarty and Butts return to the side here. The Kangaroos have a poor record against the Crows at the Adelaide Oval and this looks a great opportunity for the home side to continue their march up the ladder.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Sam Berry to get 15 disposals or more and Luke Parker, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Rory Laird and Wayne Milera to all get 20 or more disposals and Harry Sheezel to get 25 disposals or more @ $3.00*

Melbourne v Hawthorn, MCG, 2.15pm

Melbourne continued their strong start to the season with a solid 32 point victory over West Coast. It leaves them with a 6 win, 3 loss record in 6th spot on the AFL table.

Hawthorn did a lot right in their 15 point loss to Fremantle at Optus Stadium and they sit in 3rd place with 6 wins, 2 losses and a draw.

The Hawks find themselves missing some important personnel for this match with Barrass, Gunston, Nash, Chol and Dear all unlikely to play. I favour Hawthorn here but Melbourne get them at the right time and can push them right to the wire.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Max Gawn to get 15 or more disposals, Karl Amon, Jack Steele and James Sicily to all get 20 or more disposals and Nick Watson to kick 2 goals or more @ $3.50*

Carlton v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium, 5.35pm

The Blues have had a hectic week with Head Coach Michael Voss stepping down from the role and Caretaker Coach Josh Fraser moving in to the position for the remainder of the season. They made a late run at Brisbane last week eventually going down by just 11 points. Their 1 win 8 loss season record sees them in 16th place on the table.

The Western Bulldogs have been overwhelmed with injuries after a great start to the season and they clawed back an important win last week knocking off Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval. They now have a 5 win 4 loss record and find themselves in 9th spot.

A change of Coach can often spark a side in to life but I couldn’t possibly trust Carlton on what they have served up to this point of the season. Even though the Doggies are banged up they play their best footy at Marvel Stadium and they have their grand Talisman Marcus Bontempelli to lead the way.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 15 points.

Same Game Multi: Ryley Sanders and Adam Cerra to both get 20 or more disposals and Sam Walsh and Bailey Dale to both get 25 or more disposals @ $5.00*

SUNDAY

Essendon v Fremantle, MCG, 11.10am

Fremantle produced some of their most exciting football of the season in their come from behind 15 point victory over the Hawks. Wharfie Time delivered in spades with Freo surging home with some electric goals in the concluding stages to power home for an important success. It leaves them in 2nd spot on the AFL table with an 8 win and 1 loss record.

After back to back 10 goal defeats Essendon showed a lot more resilience in last week’s 14 point loss to GWS. They have only had the 1 win for the season though and sit 17th on the AFL Ladder.

Fremantle continue to show great signs of maturity and the belief and confidence from within their playing group is now starting to really shine through. If they turn up in the right mind set and play to the level they have been over the last 2 months they should prove too classy.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 44 points

Same Game Multi: Fremantle to win, Hayden Young and Luke Jackson to both get 15 or more disposals, Murphy Reid and Shai Bolton to both get 20 or more disposals and Archie Roberts to get 25 or more disposals @ $3.25*

St Kilda v Richmond, Marvel Stadium, 1.15pm

The Saints had the unenviable task of playing Gold Coast at TIO Stadium. While they started well they eventually succumbed to the conditions and the opposition losing by 29 points. They find themselves in 11th place on the table with a 4 win 5 loss season record.

Richmond remain anchored to the bottom of the table with just 1 win for the season and a percentage of 60.3%

Despite the prospect of having no Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and potentially no Callum Wilkie the Saints have enough talent to cover and should prove too strong for the Tigers.

VERDICT: Saint Kilda by 49 points.

Same Game Multi: Max Hall to get 15 disposals or more, Jayden Short, Jack Ross and Marcus Windhager to all get 20 disposals or more, Jack Sinclair to get 25 disposals or more and Seth Campbell to kick a goal or more @ $3.75*

West Coast v GWS, Optus Stadium, 4.15pm

After winning two matches in a row against the Kangaroos and Port Adelaide earlier in the season the Eagles have now lost six in a row with their most recent loss being a 32 point defeat at the hands of Melbourne.

GWS looked to be in a bit of trouble last week against Essendon but they dug in late in the piece and went on to record a 14 point victory. They are 13th on the ladder with a 4 win and 5 loss record.

The Giants have had to deal with injuries to a number of their top liners and accordingly they have struggled to consistently play at their best. That said they still have plenty of quality within this team and I would expect them to be very hard to beat here.

VERDICT: GWS by 33 points.

Same Game Multi: Ryan Maric, Milam Murdock, Elliot Yeo, Willem Duursma and Brent Daniels to all get 15 or more disposals, Clayton Oliver to get 25 disposals or more and Lachie Whitfield to get 30 disposals or more @ $4.80*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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