Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Rosehill on Saturday will likely remain on soft ground with the odd shower or two possible. The day gets underway as usual with a 2yo affair where I’m with one of the Chris Waller trained quartet (1) REGULATED AFFAIR who should lap up the 1400m based on his outings to date & he’s also going to enjoy a drier surface although his latest on heavy ground was quite ok. Nice soft trial in between he should be ready to go here. (3) NAMASTE is another who can improve away from heavy, expect to settle up closer to the lead from the favourable draw.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: REGULATED AFFAIR TO WIN.

RACE 2

Wide open Highway, perhaps more than is usually the case. (6) SUPER NORWEST should be ready to fire third run back from a break, liked her effort last start running home late after sitting 3 wide throughout. The consistent (9) PLENTITUDE comes out of the same last start race & although held up for some distance in the straight did look to have his chance over the concluding stages & was run over by (6) SUPER NORWEST near the line. (19) SALUTE AGAIN gets in nice & light with the claim.

Numbers: 6 – 9 – 19 – 16

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

Doing the early form for the Midway I found it near on impossible, glad to see when markets came out they agreed, we don’t often get favourites opening at $6 plus. (7) OAKFIELD BADGER has been very consistent all prep, his past couple have been on wetter ground than this which isn’t his preferred option, if we can get to a soft (5) which is quite possible he’s a definite chance at a good price. No doubt (2) SILENTSTAR can run a race fresh, he’s missed a placing only once when resuming at 5 attempts. (13) LET’S GO AGAIN is racing well, her last start second at this level stacks up well for this.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 13 – 16

Suggested Bet: OAKFIELD BADGER EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 4

Liked the look of (11) TASORAAY winning first up at Scone leading throughout. Although holding a decent lead half-way down the straight the second placed runner started to make headway before this one moved clear again late & under no heavy pressure. He may not lead this time around however can stalk the speed & we know he’s again going to be strong to the line. (8) HOPPER chased home the in-form Mickey’s Medal last start cutting back the margin in the run to the line, not far away at all 4 starts (includes a win) he shapes as the main threat. (3) HELL TO PAY is going really well this time in whilst (5) STYLISH wasn’t far away in Melbourne last start & there were excuses to suggest she should have finished closer.

Numbers: 11 – 8 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet: TASORAAY EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

(9) KING’S SECRET beat home (2) CODETTA here a fortnight back & here they are meeting again with a 2kg weight pull to the latter for being beaten under a length. She gets the nod (2) CODETTA not just due to the weight swing however the fact she was first up suggests she should be the one with more upside. (9) KING’S SECRET was only third-up, he certainly isn’t looking for the paddock & will have a break turning for home on the top tip. Don’t overlook (16) SUMMER FLAME who won first up at Listed level before lameness & the heavy ground was against her last time, she could bounce back strongly here without any surprise.

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 16 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

The very consistent (5) MICKEY’S MEDAL capped off a run of very consistent form with a win here 2 weeks ago. He drops marginally in weight for this officially stronger class race & comes up with a good gate which will see him likely landing the box seat run, no reason he can’t win again. I’m a (2) CHICA MOJITO fan, not really sure why as she has only caused me heartbreak however she must be included as she’s rarely out of the placings. (6) LITTLE COINTREAU goes in as does the Victorian visitor (7) EXTREME VIRTUE who will have to overcome a wide draw.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet: MICKEY’S MEDAL TO WIN.

RACE 7

SNACK BAR favourite? No thanks, he & KING OF ROSEAU have both been sacked by yours truly which eliminates at least two from my form analysis in what is a very open race. Wide barriers have put me off a few others, not so the resuming (10) MOGWAI who carried a big weight to win first up last prep at Kembla, he then placed here & note his best form does seem to be at the beginning of his campaigns. (7) UNSTOPABULL misses the kick, that’s the concern with him, should things pan out though he’s a chance. 3, 4 & 9 all have hopes with luck from wide gates.

Numbers: 10 – 7 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: MOGWAI EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 8

The Listed Winter Cup for the stayers should prove a good spectacle, note Team Archibald with 6 of the 14 acceptances. (3) TOURISTIC broke a decent drought when winning here recently & could well prove the one to beat again. His lead-up form had been in mostly stronger races which suggests he can be competitive again here from the good alley on favourable soft ground. (6) DON DIEGO DE VEGA strips fitter & drops a kilo off the first up run when not far away, no 2400m form however happy to take the punt he’ll run it out. Wouldn’t overlook (1) CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD or (5) BEAR ON THE LOOSE.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

Team Hayes runner (6) HALF YOURS did the right thing by us here last start when ridden a very positive race by Dylan Gibbons who took off ‘Antino style’ prior to the home turn & just kept on running down the straight winning by over 3 lengths. Only lightly raced I can’t see any reason he won’t go very close to winning again albeit with the bigger weight. (8) CORMAC T comes out of the same race, he lacked the zip of the winner however will appreciate the additional trip & meets that runner 3.5kg better at the weights. (11) ASSAILANT an improver second-up off a resuming midweek placing.

Numbers: 6 – 8 – 11 – 7

Suggested Bet: HALF YOURS TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 10

Couple drawn wide who can get across ok in this final race are (1) WATCH MY GIRL & (8) WEEPING WOMAN, I’ll have something on the pair. At the better odds I’ll lean to the former who pulled up with a couple of issues in a Group 3 affair first up, her form is solid in stronger races & I wouldn’t be the least surprised to see her bounce back here. (8) WEEPING WOMAN strips fitter for the first up placing & has won 2 of 3 second up attempts. No jockeys engaged for (11) SACRED ROCKS or (16) LADY EXTREME who are both well up to winning should they run.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 11 – 16

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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