Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Awkward alley for the Godolphin youngster SHAKEN however she showed plenty of ability winning on debut at Wyong & in her lead up trials to suggest he’s above average. Nicely bred she’s one of many I Am Invincible’s engaged in the race, gut feel is she’s the pick of them. ESTRIELLA was also impressive at her debut scoring at Gosford, draws well & has to be the logical danger. Market watch PORTOROSA.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 7 – 12

Suggested Bet: SHAKEN TO WIN

RACE 2

VAIN INVADER did a good job here last start riding the breeze yet beating all bar the winner who enjoyed a good trail parked in behind. From the inside gate he’ll land a handy spot in the run likely with cover this time around. DIMAGGIO is close, he’ll have to do it from a wide gate however surely gets away with one of these shortly. Tipped ELETTRICA last week, she landed a good trip however no run on at all. Perhaps too close in the run on that occasion I’ll leave in the placings as she should have won the start prior.

Numbers: 14 – 2 – 11 – 17

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 3

SALIRE was a real eye-catcher last start here in the race won by Omni Man who has gone on & won again (last Saturday-Rosehill). He’s a backmarker who looks to have found a race with decent enough speed & drops back in class although he does have to contend with a significant weight rise. He carried a kilo less when a good second this level behind the smart Mogo Magic the run prior. ZARU is another backmarker capable, may not win often however is rarely out of the placings having run 2nd or 3rd 17 times! JUST GO BANG faces his acid test having won 3 of 4, drawn gate 1 should measure up.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 7 – 12

Suggested Bet: SALIRE TO WIN

RACE 4

DECADENT TALE comes out of a Midway run here last start when drawing wide & giving away too much start. She did make plenty of ground in the straight & her sectionals were strong, this time around she draws very well & drops 3kg in a race I’m not convinced is all that much harder? ITA continues to give her all each start with these big weights, place chance. MASCARET could be ready to improve with the step up in distance.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet: DECADENT TALE TO WIN

RACE 5

Not too keen on this race, there doesn’t appear to be a lot between many of them & whichever runner gets the luck or has things to suit will likely win. I’m of the opinion SPECIAL ENVOY will be better suited out to further now however with the rails gate & knowing he’s going to race up on speed I’ll lean his way. TOURISTIC ran on well the latest however will again give away a start. MAHAGONI in the mix with DON PEDRO who I just worry may be better suited over less ground?

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 5 – 12

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 6

Expecting a wide-open market here. I keep coming back to the topweight PLUNDERING who doesn’t draw well & will still carry 60kg even after Zac Lloyd’s claim however just might be too good for these if able to get across or gain cover. Super consistent he’s missed a placing only once in 8 starts & really does deserve another win. NOSEY PARKER sets up well on paper, my concern is the good ground, his best form is clearly on surfaces with give. KING OF NAPLES rises in grade, did overcome a few issues to win last start running over the top of Shine who goes around in Race 1 this afternoon.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet: PLUNDERING EACH-WAY (small bet)

RACE 7

The unbeaten MOGO MAGIC will be all the rage here & that’s fair enough as his first up win was solid. He does step it up a notch in class today however & at the short quote I’m going against him sticking with TINTOOKIE on an each-way basis. Disappointing on face value here last start the firm surface & rail placement (10m) didn’t help her chances. Her prior runs were good & she just seems one of those horses who excels at 1100m, her record certainly suggests that. DIAMOND DEALER next best, fitter & has won second up.

Numbers: 10 – 4 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet: TINTOOKIE EACH-WAY

RACE 8

DEEPOUR is down to run here & at Eagle Farm, prefer he heads north as that’s an easier race however I’ve got him on top at both venues. He just gave away too much start in the Ramornie on a track which never really suited his pattern yet there he was still finding the line strongly albeit without threat. TRISTATE looks a lightweight chance on paper however he’s not the strongest to the line, can place. CONSCRIPT in the mix also however is getting up in the weights significantly.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet: DEEPOUR TO WIN

RACE 9

Happy to have something each-way on the very consistent BAZOOKA at the decent odds. Yes, he doesn’t win too often however his form is in better races & off a freshen up of a month he should be nice & sharp, obviously market moves will be all important though with the gap between runs which I’m guessing wasn’t due to any setback. STONECOAT did a good job second up sitting on a strong speed with the big impost, down 5kg today in this ‘officially’ harder race. Gut feel is TARAZAL will now be looking for further than today’s mile trip?

Numbers: 9 – 7 – 10 – 11

Suggested Bet: BAZOOKA EACH-WAY (small bet)

RACE 10

Happy to back MIRRA VIEW on an each-way basis here. Just had to wait & come across heels at Rosehill two back before held up badly & unable to secure any room in the straight last time this track, this grade. Should BANANA QUEEN return in the same form she raced last prep she’s right in the mix, trialled well. WINDSHADOW has really struck form this prep, only lightly raced he’s won 2 of 3 this prep & 3 of his past 4, certainly in the right yard as well.

Numbers: 10 – 3 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet: MIRRA VIEW EACH-WAY

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