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AFL Season Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

ADELAIDE

What we know: The Crows finished sixth in 2016 and won a final  — a solid first season under rookie coach Don Pyke following the defection of Patrick Dangerfield. The loss at home late in the year to West Coast seriously impacted their premiership aspirations.

What needs to happen: Adelaide must unearth more midfield clout. Rory Sloane is a beauty and the Crouch brothers, Brad and Matt, are fine talents, but the Crows lack the depth and line-breaking ability of the quality on-ball departments. The inability to secure Bryce Gibbs in the trade period might come back to haunt them given Cam Ellis-Yolman (knee) is already gone for the season.

What can’t afford to happen: The forward line, the club’s strength, must remain healthy. Taylor Walker is an influential leader in the mould of Wayne Carey and Jonathan Brown and is a key component in the Crows machine. A full season out of him, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch, Mitch McGovern, Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron will enable Adelaide to again boot totals that simply overwhelm many sides.

What we think: The Crows are a very solid, well-resourced and well-coached football club. But have they made the necessary improvements to their list to climb the ladder? You could mount an argument they haven’t. 5th.

BRISBANE

What we know: The Justin Leppitsch experiment was an abject failure. A triple premiership key defender with the Lions, Leppitsch couldn’t handle the increased responsibility that came with being a senior coach. Had Essendon’s supplements saga not carried over into 2016, the Lions would have finished last.

What needs to happen: New coach Chris Fagan will strip it back and start again. There is no other way. Already there is a more positive vibe at the club. Expect Brisbane to be harder to score against in 2017 after leaking way too many goals last year.

What can’t afford to happen: Tom Rockliff once again being allowed to view himself as bigger than the football club. That he has been removed as captain is a good first step. Dayne Beams has been appointed his successor and the Lions, having invested heavily in him, require the Collingwood premiership star to play well — and regularly.

What we think: There is going to be more pain. To think otherwise would be foolish. But the building blocks have been put in place. Josh Schache, Eric Hipwood and Michael Close are fine young key-forward talents, while Harris Andrews is a competitor at the defensive end. 17th.

CARLTON

What we know: The Blues were solid enough under first-year mentor Brendon Bolton in 2016, but their lack of depth and an inability to impact the scoreboard during matches held them to seven wins and a 14th-placed finish.

What needs to happen: Carlton don’t have a vast array of talent, so they have precious little wiggle room when it comes to key personnel and their ability to perform at a high standard week in, week out. Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Kade Simpson, Matthew Kreuzer and recruit Caleb Marchbank will dictate whether the Blues avoid the cellar.

What can’t afford to happen: Carlton fans must keep the faith. Gradual improvement, rather than a vault up the ladder, will be a pass mark. Teenager Sam Petrevski-Seton has the talent to be an elite AFL performer. If the Claremont product shows glimpses and the likes of Jacob Weitering and Jack Silvagni build on their rookie campaigns, that should hearten the Blues faithful.

What we think: Finals out of reach, but the wooden spoon looms large. Bolton will be keen to get games into the kids as part of the club’s rebuild, but that could lead to some spankings. 18th.

COLLINGWOOD

What we know: The Magpies mixed some exciting football in 2016 with performances that were well below par, even taking into account their injuries. A third consecutive season outside the top eight has ensured the spotlight is fixed firmly on Nathan Buckley and his players this year.

What needs to happen: Play finals. It’s as simple as that. Buckley outlined last August what he felt would occur to his coaching tenure if the Magpies happened to be spectators again in 2017. Collingwood’s best 18 is good enough to challenge for a finals berth, with the preferred forward line potentially one of the hardest to curtail when up and about.

What can’t afford to happen: Like any side that is under the pump to perform, Collingwood must get away to a fast start to keep the wolves from the door. A first-up assignment against the Western Bulldogs, followed by a tricky clash with Richmond in round two and then a match against Sydney at the SCG will test the nerves.

What we think: The decision to recruit Daniel Wells was sound in theory, but the 32-year-old has battled calf injuries in recent times and already been ruled out of round one. His contract and that of Chris Mayne’s four-year deal believed to be in the vicinity of $1.8 million will be robustly discussed all season. Even more so when Collingwood miss the finals again. 10th.

ESSENDON

What we know: There is not much more that can be said regarding Essendon’s trials and tribulations surrounding their supplements saga that led to them finishing last in 2016. One hopes the old guard — chiefly Mark Thompson, James Hird, Danny Corcoran, Dean Wallis and Paul Little — button their lips now the season is upon us. The players deserve that much.

What needs to happen: The integration of 10 players back into the system after missing all of last year is key. It is silly to think they will all be at the same level they were prior to the 12-month doping bans straight away. But they are proud men and competitive beasts and still have plenty of good football ahead of them as a collective.

What can’t afford to happen: Joe Daniher’s development cannot stall. The angular left-footer booted a career-best 43 goals last season, a terrific return given the standard of delivery wasn’t always slick. He has long been seen as the club’s saviour in attack. If he has a 50-plus goal season, Essendon will win their share of games.

What we think: A season of transition and many eyes watching the progress of Brendon Goddard, last year’s captain. Goddard has seriously slowed down in the past 12 months and been guilty of going to ground too often. 14th.

FREMANTLE

What we know: Last season was a disaster. Ross Lyon and his coaching staff endured a year to forget, with a staggering injury list not helping their cause. It was one of the most remarkable falls from grace seen in recent memory.

What needs to happen: The Dockers have to get some traction and quickly. The free fall from being in contention to 4-18 in the space of 12 months triggers self-doubt, and a shaky start would only heighten the anxiety of those inside the four walls, not to mention supporters. Getting some service from Harley Bennell would be a major boost.

What can’t afford to happen: The injuries that derailed the 2016 season cannot rear their heads again this year. Nat Fyfe didn’t grace the field after breaking a leg in round five against Carlton. If Fremantle are to climb the ladder, Fyfe will have a large say in their fortunes.

What we think: First things first, expect Fyfe to recommit to the football club. Speculation he will leave the Dockers is a nonsense. Lyon is a proven coach of mature sides. The same plaudits don’t apply to young groups and this is a club building for success down the track. 13th.

GEELONG

What we know: The Cats spent a considerable amount of the off-season wondering and dissecting what went wrong in their preliminary final meltdown to Sydney. Favoured to advance to the grand final, the Cats were ambushed in the first term and never really threatened from that point. It undid much of the good work during the home-and-away campaign and continued the club’s poor record in the post-season since the 2011 flag.

What needs to happen: Geelong must discover a harder edge. They are very competent and have their share of star power, but when push comes to shove, they can sometimes be found wanting. The recruiting over the past 24 months has been for the here and now. There is nothing wrong with that, but if the players can’t deliver, everyone at the club feels the heat.

What can’t afford to happen: Major injuries to Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Tom Hawkins would be catastrophic. In the absence of an injured Nat Fyfe, Dangerfield assumed the mantle as the No.1 midfielder in the competition and generated enormous numbers alongside skipper Selwood. Their influence takes on even greater importance following the retirement of Corey Enright and Jimmy Bartel.

What we think: Question marks surround the Cats. Their best is really good, but until they become bombproof against the big boys of the competition when it matters most, the jury remains well and truly out. 6th.

GOLD COAST

What we know: Rodney Eade will be looking to avoid all ladders and black cats in the wake of two wretched seasons on the injury front. No finals appearances following a raft of concessions and the ability to lure some big names doesn’t sit well with the hierarchy at the AFL.

What needs to happen: Gary Ablett is a fading force, but his very best football has him perched comfortably amongst the premier players in the competition. Shoulder issues have plagued him ever since he was tackled by Brent Macaffer in Guy McKenna’s last season as coach. If the dual Brownlow medallist can get rolling along, aided by the inside bull that is David Swallow, the Suns will win their share of games.

What can’t afford to happen: Any further injuries to their tall stocks would be a disaster. The loss of Sam Day to a serious hip injury in the pre-season leaves Gold Coast relying very heavily on the likes of Tom Lynch, Peter Wright, Rory Thompson, Steven May, Tom Nicholls and Jarrod Witts.

What we think: The Suns are coming from a long way back and sadly, they are likely to remain there. In all likelihood, Ablett will exit the club at the end of the season, further decimating a midfield that has taken some big hits in recent times. 12th.

GWS

What we know: The Giants are an extraordinarily good football side that could quite easily be gearing up for the season as reigning premiers. The preliminary final loss at home to the Western Bulldogs stung that little bit more given they had taken down Sydney in the qualifying final only a few weeks earlier.

What needs to happen: From what we witnessed in 2016, not much needs to alter for the Giants to win this year’s premiership. Yes, the leap from preliminary finalists to premiers is a relatively big one, but Leon Cameron’s charges are perfectly placed to enjoy sustained success. The addition of Brett Deledio further enhances their chances.

What can’t afford to happen: The Giants developing big heads would be a mortal blow. Just about everyone throughout the football community believes GWS have the talent to contend and the AFL’s newest club wouldn’t be the first outfit to drink its own bathwater. But the sprinkling of experience on the list and the hurt of the loss to the Bulldogs should ensure any complacency is quickly frowned upon.

What we think: It would be a major shock if the Giants don’t finish top four and from there, give themselves an ideal pad from which to launch a premiership assault. The list is bursting at the seams with elite talent, and plays on the edge with more than a touch of swagger. In an era of quality midfields, GWS boast one that might top them all. 1st.

HAWTHORN

What we know: The bombshell delivered by Hawthorn in the wake of last season’s straight-sets finals exit — the trading of Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis — took some time to digest. So much so, some Hawks fans are still having trouble adjusting to life without the four-times premiership heroes.

What needs to happen: Their replacements, effectively Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara, along with enigmatic ruck-forward Ty Vickery, must have career-best seasons. Anything less will invite intense scrutiny and lead to unwanted second guessing of Alastair Clarkson and the club’s list management team.

What can’t afford to happen: Warriors Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne, Josh Gibson and Grant Birchall can’t fall off the cliff. There is a distinct difference between retiring at the end of a season and struggling to see out the year in your final campaign. In the absence of Sam Mitchell and Lewis, Clarkson will lean on his decorated quartet to fight the signs of ageing.

What we think: Make no mistake, this Hawthorn unit boasts enough elite players to make rival coaches green with envy. The celebrated return of Jarryd Roughead ensures the Hawks’ forward line resembles the one that delivered a premiership hat-trick, while the defence is also outstanding, albeit containing some older bodies. The midfield is the major question mark. 8th.

MELBOURNE

What we know: The Paul Roos era is over, but it doesn’t spell doom and gloom. Simon Goodwin is an excellent young coaching prospect who has had a profound impact already on a number of young Demons, notably Jesse Hogan. Roos was what they needed at the time, Goodwin is what they need now.

What needs to happen: The Demons have put the building blocks in place and are now in a position to cash in. Settled and happy in Victoria, Hogan has the capacity to challenge for the Coleman Medal, while fellow elite young talents Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Angus Brayshaw and Sam Weideman should continue on their current trajectory.

What can’t afford to happen: If there is to be a criticism of Melbourne in years gone by, it is their habit to be, well, very … Melbourne. The Demons have made a habit of taking two steps forward, only to become very comfortable and then ultimately take four steps back. That has to stop. The atrocious record against St Kilda — a team jostling for a spot inside the top eight — and the win-loss ratio at Etihad Stadium, also needs to be amended.

What we think: This Melbourne resurgence looks and feels real. Will it be? Time will tell, but there is enough experience and young talent at Goodwin’s disposal, while the addition of hard heads Jordan Lewis, Jake Melksham and Michael Hibberd is encouraging. 7th.

NORTH MELBOURNE

What we know: The wheels well and truly came off in the second half of 2016, so much so that the reset button was hit a year before the club had initially anticipated. It led to the departures of Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Michael Firrito and Nick Dal Santo.

What needs to happen: A miracle if the Kangaroos are to play finals for a fourth consecutive season. Their top end is still sound enough, but the depth chart (to pinch an American sporting phrase) is suspect with a capital S. The young talent that has been on the list without stepping up must jump out of the ground to avoid the spotlight being directed on the recruiting staff.

What can’t afford to happen: North have to trust the process. They have indicated they are willing to build up again from underneath and that is reliant on new blood being injected into the line-up alongside the proven talent. They cannot abandon the rebuild, even if they experience some unexpected early success.

What we think: A long, hard year is in the offing. A host of quality players remain, but there is still a lack of leg speed and many Kangaroos players have a sameness about them. 16th.

PORT ADELAIDE

What we know: Ken Hinkley is in the gun. Two years outside the finals after a brave tilt in 2014 has not pleased Port chairman David Koch, who has demanded a return to the post-season this year.

What needs to happen: Less talk and more action would be nice. The Power have gone too far in trying to become an open book and some of their messages and promotions are bordering on gimmicks. Hinkley and his coaching staff would be better served getting their players prepared to play a consistent brand of football that has a little flexibility.

What can’t afford to happen: As we touched on, another idle September would all but see the end of Hinkley. At stages last season, there seemed to be a gulf between the club’s leadership group and Hinkley. That cannot be allowed to filter into 2017. Charlie Dixon and Paddy Ryder don’t have the luxury of easing into their relationship. They need to live up to their game-breaking status from the outset.

What we think: Hinkley to have a harrowing first month. Sydney (away), Fremantle (home), Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney (away) could see the Power 1-3 and playing catch-up. That is less than ideal for an under-pressure coach. 11th.

RICHMOND

What we know: The natives at Punt Road are growing restless. Three straight finals appearances, albeit brief ones, followed by a really disappointing return of eight wins in 2016 has turned up the heat on everyone at the club. And no AFL environment does internal bickering quite like that at Richmond.

What needs to happen: The Tigers need to win some games and win them early. If that doesn’t occur, all hell could break loose. Damien Hardwick has tried over the summer to implement a faster, more attacking game plan. Some would say it is too late, although you could argue it is better late than never.

What can’t afford to happen: Richmond invested heavily in Dion Prestia in a year when the national draft had some quality kids at the top end. Prestia better stand up, so too Josh Caddy, otherwise the club’s poor recruiting history will be dredged up yet again. The Tigers can ill afford to lose Dustin Martin, who is a restricted free agent at the end of the season.

What we think: The Tigers have a mediocre list despite the insistence from Hardwick that the squad is a finals-bound group. There are too many holes and too many players who have been lured as part of a Moneyball approach. 15th.

ST KILDA

What we know: The Saints are on the right track. Their struggles of 2014 and 2015 looked like continuing last year, only to surge in the second half of the season. The natural progression would be a finals appearance, but making that jump can be difficult.

What needs to happen: Jake Carlisle has to produce a level of football that the club anticipated when it lured him from Essendon. A year off the scene for his role in the Bombers’ supplements saga enabled him to have hip surgery and mature mentally. If he is a dominant key defender as he has threatened to be, the Saints are a different looking team.

What can’t afford to happen: Nick Riewoldt slows down. It is inevitable, but Saint Nick is to be treasured and few would begrudge him returning to the pointy end of a season after the heartache of 2009 and 2010. His presence is a massive help to key forwards Josh Bruce, Tim Membrey and Paddy McCartin.

What we think: There is a lot to like about the manner in which the Saints are building. All areas of the ground are getting stronger, but one nagging concern is several of their talented young midfielders are small by modern-day standards. 9th.

SYDNEY

What we know: The Lance Franklin experiment is yet to be fully vindicated. And that is through no fault of the man himself. Sydney’s talisman has been outstanding in his three seasons at the club, but two grand final appearances have yielded no cup. A question mark lingers.

What needs to happen: The Swans need to redeem themselves on the grand final stage. They were humiliated by Hawthorn in 2014 and though they weren’t disgraced last season against the Western Bulldogs, it mattered little in the end. What they do between rounds one and 23, sadly for them, counts for very little. Silverware is the only thing that matters.

What can’t afford to happen: There will come a time when Franklin’s form will dip. John Longmire and his coaches can’t have it occurring in 2017. The Swans remain very much in the go-zone and they need their best players performing at a level we have come to expect on a regular basis.

What we think: The Swans list is still slightly lopsided. The top-end talent is obvious and they are well rewarded, but there is a chunk of the squad that are very much role players, with the ability to play good games at various stages. That lack of depth is a concern. 3rd.

WEST COAST

What we know: West Coast did little to address the Eastern States perception that they are flat-track bullies with their horrible elimination final display against the Western Bulldogs. That said, the Eagles certainly believe their premiership window is open and have recruited accordingly.

What needs to happen: The Eagles have to find a way to finish top two. It is a difficult ask given the strength of Greater Western Sydney, the Bulldogs and Sydney, but if Adam Simpson’s men can be dominant through the home-and-away campaign, they might be able to navigate a grand final berth via Domain Stadium.

What can’t afford to happen: Several quality players, notably Jack Darling, Mark LeCras and Elliot Yeo, cannot be overawed in finals football as they have been if the opportunity presents again. The long-term injuries to Nic Naitanui (knee) and Scott Lycett (shoulder) mean any setbacks to Nathan Vardy, Drew Petrie and Jonathan Giles become very damaging.

What we think: The addition of Sam Mitchell is terrific. A bona fide champion, Mitchell doesn’t suffer fools and demands a high standard of his teammates and coaches. His influence has the capacity to help West Coast win important games away from Domain Stadium. 2nd.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

What we know: The Bulldogs were faultless when it mattered most last season, upstaging West Coast and Greater Western Sydney interstate when very few gave them any chance at all. Then came the historic grand final result. Entering 2017, Luke Beveridge’s side looks even stronger.

What needs to happen: There are two parts at play here. The expectation and hype around the club and the players needs to be managed if they are to have any chance of successfully defending their title. Secondly, the players have to understand they need to get back to business. It is well known the Bulldogs had a fun summer, but it is time to get back to work.

What can’t afford to happen: Several young pups who took giant strides forward can’t retreat. Tom Boyd’s grand final was outstanding and vindicated the massive money he was paid to prise him away from GWS, while Jason Johannisen proved himself to be an elite performer. The bar has been set.

What we think: There is no denying that the return of captain Bob Murphy and forward Stewart Crameri, along with the addition of a hungry Travis Cloke, gives the Bulldogs even greater firepower. Hawthorn aside however, repeating is a difficult thing to do. 4th.




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