Sports

David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Round 23

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

FRIDAY

Fremantle v Adelaide, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

Fremantle lost their third match of the season last week when they were beaten at the MCG by Melbourne by 4 points in what was one of the games of the season. They remain on top of the ladder with a two win buffer.

Adelaide were forced to scramble late last week to defeat an inaccurate Richmond, eventually sneaking home by 9 points. They sit in 5th place and need to keep winning to press hard for a top 4 spot.

Teams are yet to be announced at the time of writing but it is expected that Fogarty, McAndrew and Soligo will come in for the Crows while for Fremantle Skipper Alex Pearce is a likely inclusion. Coach Justin Longmuir suggested young gun Murphy Reid was no certainty to play after copping a significant hit to the Crown Jewels last week.

These two sides played out a classic at the Adelaide Oval in round 4 with the Dockers prevailing by just 2 points.

Fremantle have had the better of this match up in recent years winning 6 of the last 7 against the Crows.

The Dockers have proven very hard to stop on their home deck this season and that looks likely to continue here.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 17 points.

Same Game Multi:  Izak Rankine to get 20 or more disposals, Josh Treacy and Darcy Fogarty to both kick 2 or more goals @ $3.00*

SATURDAY

Richmond v Saint Kilda, MCG, 10.35am

The Tigers remain in 17th spot on the table after a 9 point loss to the Crows in Adelaide. It was one of their better performances of the season on the road.

It was a horror show for the Saints last Sunday. Not only did they get handsomely beaten by Carlton, they lost their best player Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to a hamstring issue, Mason Wood suffered a calf strain and Liam Ryan and Tom De Koning have both pulled up sore out of the game.

These two sides met in round 10 and it ended in a comfortable 6 goal win for the Saints. It can be dangerous betting in to games like this late in the season but one thing I will say about the Saints is that while they have struggled to beat the sides above them on the ladder they have been pretty reliable in regards to beating the bottom seven. That trend should continue here.

VERDICT: Saint Kilda by 23 points.

Same Game Multi : Darcy Wilson to get 20 or more disposals, Max Hall and Brad Hill to both get 25 or more disposals and Jack Higgins to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.45*

North Melbourne v Geelong, Marvel Stadium, 1.45pm

The Kangaroos handed in one of their better efforts of the season last week pulling out plenty to defeat the Western Bulldogs by 23 points. They sit in 13th spot with a 9 win, 12 loss record.

Geelong brought up their fourth straight win when they smoked up Essendon by 67 points. They need to win their last two games to press in to the top six so they have plenty to play for here.

These two sides met in round 8 this season where the Cats walked away 49 point winners.

Geelong have owned the Kangaroos for many years now. They have won the last 15 outings between the two sides by an average winning margin of just under 50 points. Until that changes I’m happy to keep tipping in to the Pussy Cats.

VERDICT: Geelong by 21 points.

Same Game Multi: Bailey Smith and Harry Sheezel to both get 25 or more disposals and Paul Curtis and Shannon Neale to both kick 2 or more goals @ $3.60.*

Brisbane v Gold Coast, GABBA, 2.15pm

A week can be a long time in footy – a fortnight ago the Lions copped a 76 point hiding at the hands of Carlton. Fast forward a week and they flipped the script beating up on Hawthorn and delivering a statement in their 67 point win over the Hawks. They sit in 4th spot on the table and will be keen to win their last two matches to sew up that position.

Gold Coast snapped a 10 game losing streak when they were able to defeat GWS by 2 points, thanks mainly to Brownlow Medallist Matt Rowell who was phenomenal with 40 disposals, 16 tackles, 17 clearances and 881 metres gained.

These two sides met in round 13 at People First Stadium where the Lions were 31 point winners.

Brisbane have had the better of these match-ups in recent times winning 5 of the last 6 Q Clashes. With a top 4 spot beckoning the Lions should be hungry and too classy.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 38 points.

Same Game Multi: Brisbane to win, Lachie Neale to get 25 or more disposals, Charlie Cameron to kick a goal and Kai Lohmann to kick 3 or more goals @ $3.20*

Hawthorn v Collingwood, MCG, 5.40pm

Hawthorn will be keen to get back in to their work after a disappointing 67 point loss to the Lions at the Gabba last week. They had been in good form before that with wins at 6 of their prior 7 matches. They remain in third spot on the table but with three teams just 2 premiership points behind them there is little wriggle room for errors late in the regular season.

The Magpies have had a strong finish to the season winning 7 of their last 8 matches including a 19 point road win against West Coast last week. They sit in 8th spot and will be a part of the Wild Card action.

These two sides met in round 8 and could not be split with the match result being a draw, both teams locked on 93 points apiece.

Over the course of the season Hawthorn have been a touch more reliable but I expect this to be another tremendous clash.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 8 points.

Same Game Multi: Hawthorn to win by 1-39 points and Total Under 175.5 points @ $3.85*

Port Adelaide v Melbourne, Adelaide Oval, 6.10pm

Port Adelaide have had a season littered with injuries to key personnel and last week it was like the dam wall finally broke going down by 97 points to the Swans at the SCG. They now sit in 15th place on the table.

Melbourne were stunning in their 4 point win over ladder leaders Fremantle. They sit in sixth spot on the ladder and will be keen to finish off strong and cash in on any slip ups from the teams above them over the last fortnight.

The Demons are playing with great harmony and spirit right now and I can’t see them undoing the good work from last week here. They should win well.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 33 points.

Same Game Multi: Melbourne to win, Joe Berry to get 15 or more disposals and Max Gawn, Ollie Wines Tom Sparrow and Jake Bowey to all get 20 or more disposals @ $3.65*

SUNDAY

GWS v West Coast, Engie Stadium, 11.40am

GWS have had a year to forget with a number of their topliners sidelined for long periods. The result has been the most unpredictable side in the league. Their best has been too good for some of the best sides in the competition and their worst has seen them drop games to cellar dwellers. They find themselves in 12th position on the table.

West Coast scrapped hard against Collingwood last week but in the end the Pies were too good winning by 19 points. It sees the Eagles in 16th spot.

The Giants remain the most unpredictable side in the competition and West Coast did beat GWS by 17 points when they met earlier in the season. The Giants should be winning here but they are not a side that I like taking short odds about personally.

VERDICT: GWS by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Harry Rowston and Toby Greene to both get 15 or more disposals, Tom McCarthy and Marcus Herbert to both get 20 or more disposals and Harley Reid to get 25 or more disposals @ $3.05*

Western Bulldogs v Carlton, Marvel Stadium, 1.15pm

It was a disappointing effort from the Doggies last week against the Kangaroos eventually going down by 23 points. They sit in 9th spot and appear destined for a spot in the Wild Card action.

Carlton continue their extraordinary transformation under Coach Josh Fraser winning 10 of 12 matches since he has been at the helm. They sit in 10th spot and barring something crazy happening they appear destined to be a part of Wild Card activities – remarkable when you consider how far back they have come from.

The two sides met in round 10 where the Blues prevailed by 12 points. The Blues have got proper momentum up and will take some stopping here.

VERDICT: Carlton by 13 points.

Same Game Multi: Carlton to win by 1-39 points and Total over 173.5 points @ $4.50*

Essendon v Sydney, MCG, 2.40pm

Essendon sit last on the table and have been belted the last 3 matches by margins of 93 points, 72 points and 67 points.

Sydney on the other hand look to be hitting top gear at the right time of the season and they were clinical in their 97 point win over Port last week. They have all but wrapped up second spot on the ladder.

Sydney tend to be ruthless under these sort of circumstances and this could get messier than a teenagers bedroom. Swannies by lots and lots.

VERDICT: Swans by 75 points.

Same Game Multi: Sydney to win by 40 points or more, Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner to both get 20 or more disposals, Nick Blakey to get 25 or more disposals and Errol Gulden to get 30 or more disposals @ $3.25*

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