Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Ethan Roth

Race 1

Cracking day of racing coming up at Rosehill on a good rated surface. We get things underway with a 1400m Midway where I’m leaning to (2) MISS SPACEGIRL who was clearly unlucky not to win first up here a fortnight back. Held up at a crucial time in the straight she found clear running a second too late just missing out on the line, note she was in front clearly past the post. Gate isn’t great however I do like the rise in trip for her, she’ll be looking for it. (1) FELIX MAJESTIC will give a sight, speedy & races well here, just can’t seem to quite find the line first. (11) QUEEN OF CLUBS was better last start, strips fitter again third up & with Zac Lloyd up from a good gate is well worth including.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 11 – 13

Suggested Bet: MISS SPACEGIRL EACH-WAY.

Race 2 (Best Value)

Now to the Highway which this week is over 1500m. (14) STREET FORCE looks well placed, a winner her first 2 starts this prep she then struck trouble at the start here a couple of weeks back before running home strongly into fourth. Good draw, settles closer & loses a little weight. (5) OCEAN TSUNAMI has a good fresh & overall record, has trialled soundly enough to rate a first up chance. (4) MAGIC MERLIN continues to race well & although striking a tougher race does drop in weight.

Numbers: 14 – 5 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: STREET FORCE EACH-WAY.

Race 3

Interesting race. (9) BARRENGARRY, (10) MISTER RIZZ & (11) ANTHRACITE all look winning chances however I’m concerned with the rise to 2000m, they could all prove vulnerable late. I didn’t initially want to tip (4) STARZINTHEIREYES as he’d just become too costly having been beaten as favourite his past 3 starts however he’s the one who will enjoy the 2000m so on top he goes however each-way only. (9) BARRENGARRY is flying, up in class, up 400m, can’t knock though & that last win was terrific sitting wide throughout.

Numbers: 4 – 9 – 11 – 10

Suggested Bet:  STARZINTHEIREYES EACH-WAY.

Race 4

The Group 3 Gloaming. I’m going to stick with (2) STORMY MARCO however I didn’t expect him to be second favourite in early markets. His runs in Brisbane over the winter were very good culminating with a strong finishing third in the J. J. Atkins over 1600m. Solid first up 1400m & in the Golden Rose last start he couldn’t sprint with them however held his ground & his sectionals late were good enough to suggest he’ll handle 1800m. He just has that touch of class the others may not have. (4) WONKA & (5) GENESIS RUNNER back up from their quinella finish in last week’s Dulcify, suggest both will handle the rise in distance comfortably. Victorian visitor (6) SCAROLE the other main chance in the race whilst (11) PROXIMA DEA who is fresh off a last start Midway win is the early market favourite, yes unbeaten however a big rise in class.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet: STORMY MARCO EACH-WAY.

Race 5

Open looking race, certainly no standouts. I’ll lean to (1) REVENGEANCE who comes out of a couple of recent Group races back to Listed level. His effort in the Run To The Rose was sound, just gave me the impression he had more to offer & the rise to 1400m suits if that is the case. (4) OMOLONG is a real question mark, unbeaten initial prep both wins were good, first up did nothing in stronger grade however pulled up with a slow recovery, now rises 300m! Market may be our best guide however keep in mind he is from the Waller stable. Likes the look of (7) LAFITE’s win at Kembla, yes this is tougher however he’s got plenty of upside.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 7 – 10 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 5 selections in exotics.

Race 6 (Best Bet)

Keen on the filly (14) SATONO GLOW to take care of the boys here in the Group 2 Roman Consul. A winner at 3 of her 4 starts she was desperately unlucky at the defeat when held up badly at Randwick in the Percy Sykes. Dominant winning first up down the Flemington straight she can only take improvement from the run. (1) PARADOXIUM returned in good order also down the Flemington straight, won 3 of 6 with his 2 defeats last prep both coming about in Group 1’s (Slipper/Sires Produce). There’s a big gap in the market away from that pair & I couldn’t agree more, they look to have lengths on the rest.

Numbers: 14 – 1 – 11 – 2

Suggested Bet: SATONO GLOW TO WIN.

Race 7

Small but select field to go around in the Group 2 Hill Stakes. I’m one of the rare few who isn’t able to catch (1) LINDERMANN however I’m hoping that’s all about to change. He just looks better than the opposition here & although mixing his form this prep he returns to a track he clearly enjoys racing at. (3) ATTRITION’s last start placing in the Underwood was his best effort for some time, any repeat has him in the finish, dry track certainly in his favour. (6) ZAMBARDO fitter third up whilst (9) KING PEDRO is an interesting runner, trip no issue, fitness the query, market?

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet: LINDERMANN TO WIN (black figures).

Race 8

Group 3 Alan Brown is up next & we have a very open race with big numbers. (2) HEADLEY GRANGE does look the best placed runner & should we be able to secure an each-way price that looks the way to go. Super consistent with an enviable strike rate he drops 1.5kg in weight from his last start placing, draws ideally & ticks the track/distance boxes. (1) GRINGOTTS the best horse in the race however he’ll have to lump his 61kg from an outside gate, suggesting a cold ride is likely. Victorian raider (5) SEPALS has beaten all bar the winner his last couple which have both been in Group 1 company, cracking record at this 1400m trip.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 5 – 11

Suggested Bet: HEADLEY GRANGE EACH-WAY.

Race 9

This is tough, can make cases for & against just about every runner in the race which is far from ideal. Queensland visitor (6) ARABIAN ROSE is only lightly raced with a good strike rate. She resumes here off only a short break & has had the benefit of a lead-up trial, should she be within striking distance look for her to be finishing hard. (12) SHE’S AN ARTIST will get her chance here down in the weights & drawn a low gate, 1200m, that’s my query, 100m too far? (8) GERRINGONG not out of it with luck from the awkward draw, recent trial winner.

Numbers: 6 – 12 – 8 – 18

Suggested Bet: Very wide exotics!

Race 10

We get to the last on a big day. Another open affair where I’m going to lean to the widely drawn (6) KIMBERELY SECRETS who yes will need luck from out there however she is an on pacer & may well be able to offset the gate early on by pushing forward. Recent form is solid without luck, let’s hope she gets some today. (10) MERCY ME holds a good strike rate being only lightly raced & strips fitter for the first up run. (13) ELLIPSIS in the mix also, definite market watch fresh.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 13 – 9

Suggested Bet: KIMBERLEY SECRETS EACH-WAY (small bet).




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