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David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Round 9

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Fremantle v Hawthorn, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

Fremantle brought up their 7th straight victory last week, coming from behind to defeat the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium. It was another display of maturity from a side that is starting to put it all together. Hayden Young’s 20 disposals and 3 goals proved crucial while Shai Bolton was damaging with his 30 disposals.

Hawthorn played in the first draw of the season last week against the Magpies with Dylan Moore kicking a goal after the siren to secure them 2 premiership points. Like the Dockers, the Hawks have been one of the form sides of the competition with 6 wins and a draw from their last 7 matches.

This game shapes as an epic encounter. It is second versus third on the ladder and both sides will get a great examination of their game against quality opposition. Fremantle have had a tremendous record against Hawthorn in recent years winning 7 of their last 8 matches and with home ground advantage I will lean towards the Dockers bringing up their eighth straight win.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 7 points

Same Game Multi: Jack Ginnivan to get 15 disposals or more and Murphy Reid, Karl Amon and Hayden Young to get 20 disposals or more @ $3.30*

FRIDAY

Brisbane v Carlton, GABBA, 5.30pm

The reigning Premiers are back in town winning 5 of their last 6 and the last fortnight has been power footy with the Lions smashing the Crows by 52 points and Essendon by 64 points.

Carlton’s woes continued last week with a 39 point loss to Saint Kilda – it was their sixth loss in a row and they now sit in 16th position with just 1 win for the season.

Brisbane remain the team to beat in season 2026 and if they play to the level they have the last fortnight this should again be a comfortable victory.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 44 points.

Same Game Multi: Jaspa Fletcher to get 15 or more disposals, Adam Cerra to get 20 or more disposals, Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft to get 25 or more disposals and Logan Morris to kick two goals or more @ $3.50*

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval, 6.10pm

Port Adelaide played their guts out in a classic Showdown against the Crows last week going down by a solitary point. They were very good the week prior knocking off the Cats by 5 goals and they are playing some pretty decent football at the minute.

Despite dealing with significant injuries to key personnel the Doggies turned up the heat in their contest against Fremantle last week and went down by just 12 points. Marcus Bontempelli continues to lead with authority and looms large in this contest.

This is one of the tougher games of the season to assess. Port Adelaide’s last three games have been impressive against quality opposition and the Dogs showed last week that even with a pile of top end talent out they are still very dangerous. I rate this a genuine flip of the coin job. With the Dogs vulnerable down back with a lack of key defenders Mitch Georgiades gets his chance to kick a bag – maybe that will be the difference.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 3 points.

Same Game Multi: Joel Freijah to get 15 disposals or more, Ryley Sanders, Ollie Wines and Jason Horne-Francis to get 20 or more disposals, Zak Butters to get 25 disposals or more and Mitch Georgiades to kick 2 goals or more @ $3.30*

SATURDAY

North Melbourne v Sydney, Marvel Stadium, 11.15am

The Kangaroos are coming off a 49 point loss to Geelong and have now dropped 3 of their last 4 matches leaving them in 10th spot on the table with a 4 win 4 loss record.

Sydney sit on top of the AFL table and are in a rich vein of form winning their last 5 matches in commanding fashion. Former Sun Malcom Rosas showed up last week with a 7 goal haul and McInerney, Blakey and Heeney are playing some serious football.

Sydney are on a heater at the minute and the Kangaroos are going to have to take their game to another level to knock them off here.

VERDICT: Sydney by 33 points.

Same Game Multi: Sydney to win, Angus Sheldrick and Riley Bice to both get 15 disposals or more and Isaac Heeney, Justin McInerney and Nick Blakey to all get 20 disposals or more @ $3.00*

GWS v Essendon, Engie Stadium, 2.15pm

The Giants have had to deal with their share of injuries to top end talent so far this year and sit in 14th spot on the ladder with a 3 win and 5 loss record. They lost to the Suns by 20 points up in the Gold Coast last week but they were far from embarrassed.

The Bombers have had a fortnight to forget getting thumped by Collingwood by 77 points and Brisbane by 64 points. They sit in 17th spot with just one win for the season.

This looks a wonderful opportunity for the Giants to regain some confidence and get some momentum back in to their season. They have a class edge and should win well.

VERDICT: GWS by 57 points.

Same Game Multi: GWS to win, Clayton Oliver, Lachie Ash and Lachie Whitfield to all get 25 or more disposals and Aaron Cadman to kick 3 goals or more @ $3.30*

Gold Coast v St Kilda, TIO Stadium, 5.10pm

The Suns sit in 5th spot on the ladder with a 5 win, 3 loss record and their 20 point win over the Giants on Sunday was good.

The Saints have won 3 of their last 4 matches to level their season record at 4 wins and 4 losses. They brushed the Blues aside last weekend winning by 39 points in one of their more impressive victories of the season.

This game is being played at TIO Stadium in the Northern Territory and the Suns have relished playing at this unique venue in recent years (Have won their last 8 matches here). Accordingly I’ll stick with Gold Coast to prevail.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Gold Coast to win, Christian Petracca, John Noble, Bodhi Uwland and Callum Wilkie to all get 20 disposals or more and Ben King to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.65*

Geelong v Collingwood, MCG, 5.35pm

The Cats were disappointing a fortnight ago losing to Port Adelaide by 30 points but around it they have looked slick with wins over West Coast by 46 points, the Bulldogs by 75 and the Kangaroos by 49 points.

Collingwood went in to their clash against Hawthorn missing some important personnel and were significant underdogs but they were up for the fight and ended up drawing the match. Prior to that they blitzed the Bombers in the Anzac Day game winning by 77 points.

This should be a tight tussle between two sides that know how to handle the big occasion. Four of the last seven matches between these two sides have been decided by 10 points or less and this could well be another nailbiter.

VERDICT: Geelong by 9 points.

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 points or less, Josh Daicos to get 20 disposals or more, Bailey Smith and Max Holmes to both get 25 disposals or more and Jeremy Cameron to kick 2 goals or more @ $3.15*

SUNDAY

Melbourne v West Coast, Marvel Stadium, 11.10am

Melbourne sit in 7th spot on the AFL table and despite being beaten last week by Sydney the margin was only 17 points and they showed some very positive signs within that contest. Among their scalps this season are Brisbane, Gold Coast and Saint Kilda.

West Coast have managed two wins so far this season but it must be said they were disappointing last week when losing to a severely undermanned Richmond side on their home turf. Prior to last week’s 11 point loss there were losses to Sydney by 128, Geelong by 46, Fremantle by 56 and Saint Kilda by 101 points.

Melbourne have impressed me a great deal this season and this looks the sort of game where they could really click through the gears. The Demons by plenty.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 48 points

Same Game Multi: Melbourne to win by 25 points or more, Elliot Yeo and Ryan Maric to both get 15 disposals or more and Harley Reid, Kysaiah Pickett and Jack Steele to all get 20 disposals or more @ $3.95*

Richmond v Adelaide, MCG, 1.15pm

The Tigers registered their first win of the season last week defeating West Coast at Optus Stadium by 11 points. Prior to that they had lost their first 7 matches with 6 of those losses by margins in excess of 42 points.

Adelaide kicked a late goal to knock off their cross town rivals Port by a point in an epic Showdown last week. They sit in 9th spot with a 4 win, 4 loss record and will relish the opportunity to hit the road and take on an injury depleted Tigers outfit.

The Crows get a really good look at Richmond here and should prove too strong.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 43 points.

Same Game Multi: Adelaide to win, Wayne Milera, Rory Laird and Sam Berry to all get 20 disposals or more and Seth Campbell to kick a goal or more @ $3.55*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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