Sports

David Shortte’s AFL Round 4 Preview

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Brisbane v Collingwood, GABBA, 4.30pm

Brisbane found themselves in an arm wrestle for 3 quarters with Saint Kilda last week before finding their mojo in the last quarter where they kicked away for a 33 point win. Will Ashcroft, Josh Dunkley and Dayne Zorko were all good and it was great to see Kitty Coleman back in some good touch after a brutal couple of seasons dealing with injuries.

Collingwood brought up their second win of the season when comfortably accounting for the Giants by 33 points. Nick and Josh Daicos were at their brilliant best, Tim Membrey showed up with 4 goals and young Ruckman Oscar Steene made a very promising debut.

The Pies will be without classy veterans Scott Pendlebury and Darcy Moore here while Brisbane have some injury woes of their own with a handful of their topliners not available. I liked what I saw from the Lions in the last quarter last week and with home ground advantage they get the nod.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win by 17 points

Same Game Multi: Jasper Fletcher to get 20 or more disposals, Dayne Zorko and Josh Daicos to get 25 or more disposals and Logan Morris to kick 2 or more goals @ $5.10*

FRIDAY

North Melbourne v Carlton, Marvel Stadium, 12.15pm

After a disappointing loss to West Coast a fortnight ago North Melbourne returned to the winner’s list last week defeating Essendon by 12 points but it was hardly a vintage performance. The Kangaroos have a healthy list but the suspension of Tristan Xerri for three weeks has the potential to unsettle the side.

Carlton hit the ground running against Melbourne on Sunday but their second half was dismal and they coughed up a 43 point lead, eventually losing to the Demons by 23 points. Their second half fade outs are becoming a significant concern. Adam Cerra and Nic Newman are potential inclusions for the Blues here and they would be welcome additions.

This is one of the more challenging matches of the round from a tipping perspective with both sides yet to prove themselves consistently reliable over four quarters.

VERDICT: Carlton by 3 points.

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 points or less, Luke Parker to get 20 or more disposals, Jagga Smith to get 25 or more disposals, Nick Larkey to kick 2 or more goals and Paul Curtis to kick a goal or more @ $4.10*

Adelaide v Fremantle, Adelaide Oval, 4.15pm

Adelaide sit at one win and two losses heading in to this fixture but the two losses were narrow against quality opposition in the Western Bulldogs and Geelong. They may not be at their very top to kick off this season but they have shown they are not far off and the Adelaide Oval is not an easy place to win for visiting teams. Jordan Dawson and veteran Taylor Walker appear likely inclusions here while Rory Laird is listed as a test.

Fremantle dished out the young Tigers outfit a hiding, winning by 60 points in a commanding performance in challenging conditions. Once again Josh Treacy was dominant taking 12 marks and kicking 4 goals. Bolton, Serong and Clark were all strong contributors.

This match has all the makings of being a classic. Adelaide will be hungry for the win on their home deck while Fremantle simply must win these sorts of fixtures if they are to take the next step and push for a spot in the top four at season’s end.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 5 points.

Same Game Multi: Josh Rachele, Murphy Reid and Shai Bolton to all get 20 or more disposals, Josh Treacy to kick 2 or more goals and Riley Thilthorpe to kick a goal or more @ $4.90*

SATURDAY

Richmond v Port Adelaide, MCG, 1.15pm

Richmond came up short in their 60 point loss to Fremantle last Saturday and currently sit at the bottom of the AFL Table but as you will hear me say many times this year there are glimpses of brilliance from their young talent and they simply just need to get games in to them. Against the top sides the Tigers may struggle but let’s not forget they all but beat Carlton a couple of weeks ago and this is a game that is very winnable.

Port Adelaide went in to last week’s home fixture against West Coast as a warm favourite but could not get the job done losing by 2 points. Zak Butters led from the front and Georgiades continues to pose a threat inside forward 50 but Port lack depth and look to be leaving too much to too few.

This is another match where it is hard to be super confident either way. I had not much separating the two sides and I think the market has them too far apart. Accordingly I will look for a bit of value and take the Tigers with the home ground advantage.

VERDICT: Richmond by 2 points.

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 points or less, Sam Banks to have 15 or more disposals, Jayden Short to have 20 or more disposals, Zak Butters to get 25 or more disposals and Mitch Georgiades to kick 2 goals or more @ $3.90*

West Coast v Sydney, Optus Stadium, 4.35pm

It’s been a tough few years for West Coast fans but you can’t help but get a bit excited about what they have shown so far in season 2026. The effort to come back from a significant deficit and find a way to win for the second time in three weeks when defeating Port Adelaide was full of merit and the likes of Duursma, Shanahan, Duff-Tytler and Harley Reid are set to provide much joy to fans of the Big Birds for many years to come. This week is another great challenge for the developing list.

Sydney arrive in Perth off the bye and were last seen a fortnight ago when the Hawks beat them by 17 points at the MCG. Prior to that they defeated Carton by 63 points and Brisbane by 44 points.

I expect Sydney with their list profile to be a touch too strong for the Eagles in this one but things do look to be heading in the right direction for the home side.

VERDICT: Sydney by 19 points.

Same Game Multi: Riley Bice and Matthew Roberts to both have 15 or more disposals, Harley Reid and Nick Blakey to both have 20 or more disposals and Jake Waterman to kick 2 or more goals @ $4.75*

SUNDAY

Melbourne v Gold Coast, MCG, 1.15pm

Melbourne brought up their second win of the year last Sunday when coming from 43 points down to steamroll Carlton and win by 23 points. Max Gawn again led from the front but some magical moments in front of the big sticks from Bailey Fritsch and Kozzy Pickett really did spark their comeback.

Gold Coast are the current premiership favourites with TABtouch after winning their first 3 games of the year and they could hardly have been any more impressive. They arrive here off the bye but have looked very sharp in each appearance to date.

If the Suns bring the same intensity they have to their first three matches they look very hard to oppose.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 17 points

Same Game Multi: Max Gawn and Caleb Windsor to get 15 disposals or more, Jack Steele to get 20 disposals or more, Brody Mihocek to kick 1 goal or more and Ben King to kick 3 goals or more @ $4*

Western Bulldogs v Essendon, Marvel Stadium, 5.20pm

The Doggies have come out and gone Bingo Bango Bongo to kick off their campaign with three victories fresh out of the top drawer. They are coming off the bye here but all things considered they look to be at a different level to their opposition in this one.

Essendon are winless with a percentage of just 61.8% after their first three games and their weapon up front Nate Caddy is going to be missing from this game.

The Doggies under the roof at Marvel could do a proper number on the Bombers here.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 75 points.

Same Game Multi: Joel Freijah to get 15 or more disposals, Marcus Bontempelli to get 25 disposals or more and Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton kick 3 goals or more each @ $3.70*

MONDAY

Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, 1.15pm

This clash has thrown up some phenomenal contests in the past and there is no reason why this would be anything different. Hawthorn return here off the bye and they would be relatively happy with their 2 win 1 loss record to kick off their campaign. Gun veteran Jack Gunston just keeps on kicking bags and looms as a key figure in this match.

Geelong have also managed a 2 win 1 loss start to their season and with the scalps of Fremantle and Adelaide they have once again shown that their best football takes some beating.

I don’t think there is a lot between these two at their top and I am expecting a classic to finish off the Easter Weekend of Footy!

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 7 points

Same Game Multi: Gryan Miers, James Sicily and Dylan Moore to all get 20 disposals or more, and Jack Gunston to kick 2 goals or more @ $4*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

Market Market

 

 




Recent Articles