Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

JAZ SESSION was $12 into $4.40 first-up and missed in a head-bobber with subsequent winner Cessation (1.4L ahead of Tawkin’ Jibberish) and then was sent around a $1.60 favourite at Belmont last start when duly saluting. She’s returned in excellent order, Justine Erkelen’s entire team is racing well and this looks winnable again. SKY DUKE will look to burn them off early. Different horse when he can follow the fence. MY LOVELY PET just continues to raise the bar and doesn’t need to lead to win anymore. HEYFIELD BOOMER enjoyed a good prep when last in work.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – JAZ SESSION WIN

RACE 2

CASTLE ROAD led and won on debut beating subsequent Pinjarra Magic Millions winner Do I Feel Lucky and then went around $1.18 at his second career start when retaining his undefeated status. Was legless in betting third-up and then pulled up shin sore – market knew! Sharp 400m jump out, on speed type. 59.5kg the test. MY AUTHORITAH was just starting to wind up at Bunbury when the gaps closed on him. GOD’S RAPTURE covered ground last week. 7 days later gets a barrier and Pike. PEMBETON never got into the contest first-up.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet – CASTLE ROAD WIN

RACE 3

HAPPY AS LARRY drops 4kg on his most recent effort and if he jumps, he can lead this event and give plenty of cheek at double figures. He’ll likely have Success Play to his outside and between the pair they can control the race and kick hard into the corner. SUCCESS PLAY may have to be content with the breeze here but even from there he should prove hard to hold out in what isn’t a deep 60+ Graduation. GOLDEN DORE likely settles last but is capable of peeling off a big L600. CORRECT CHOICE went well fresh and maps a treat.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – HAPPY AS LARRY EACHWAY

RACE 4

SOSO LUCKY has now finished second to Zouboltz, second to Sky Duke and second to Our Rocky Bay. That most recent run is best of them form wise, with Our Rocky Bay backing up and winning, Justamiddy bolting in last Sunday at Albany and Playing Games winning on Wednesday. She’s the one the market will want. CANNY ROCK got the job done last start and now drops 3.5kg. He’s a big threat. SUPPORTIVE put the writing on the wall last weekend and drops in grade off 7 days. SURE THING deserves a crack in town after breaking the clock in Esperance.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – SOSO LUCKY WIN

RACE 5

PETULA won the Breeder’s Classic as a 3 year old filly before finishing third to Wild Belle and Acromantula and then making her way into a Quokka when less than 3L off Overpass, Amelia’s Jewel, Oscar’s Fortune and Bella Nipotina. Boy this is good placement into a 72+ 1000. If Bopping Blue is attacked by Sinful Living she’ll be coming hard late. BOPPING BLUE went around an odds on favourite in the Listed Summer Scorcher on New Year’s Day. He’s a first-up, 1000m, jump and run specialist. CHARINO returns on the 54kg min. BRAVE STRIKE next.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet – PETULA WIN

RACE 6

WATCH ME ROCK gets a mulligan from the Bunbury Stakes. He was $2.20 into $1.80 and then ended up cutting back inside to the worst part of the track. There’s no doubt he went unders, but if you watch the second half of the program at Bunbury that day nobody wanted to be within 5L of the fence and the last three winners were all ~7 – 9 lanes wide. Forgive and follow up. Good horse. BRUCE ALMIGHTY is the only speed in the race. He runs for Chris Parnham and he’s a tough galloper to run down when he dictates. FLURO NEURO has gone to a new level this prep but in far weaker company than this. ICE PICK NICK was excellent at Pinjarra and woeful at Bunbury.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – WATCH ME ROCK WIN

RACE 7 

MACHINE GUN GRACIE immediately became the talk of the town in punting circles after the Ascot 1000 Guineas. She was the only on-speed horse to finish anywhere near the money (leader beaten 5L, breeze horse beaten 28L) and was fighting back hard underneath Glasgow Lass in the last 200m. She can lead on her own here, control the race and with her main rivals all drawn wide she becomes increasingly attractive as a betting proposition. GLASGOW LASS finally had things go her way last start and reminded us how classy she is. TWILIGHT TALE will stay all day. RON’S FINALFLUTTER was three deep the entire.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – MACHINE GUN GRACIE WIN

Same Race Multi – Machine Gun Gracie (Top 2) + Twilight Tale (Top 4)

Machine Gun Gracie looks mapped to lead, control and then begin to slide away from her rivals from the 600. She’s got a beautiful high cruising speed and just looks like a top tier staying filly in the making. Pretty keen on her winning but will take Top 2 in the SRM just in case. Twilight Tale is the best bred stayer in the field and gets a soft run midfield.

RACE 8

SAIL SESSION has burst onto the scene out of nowhere. He won a moderate 1800m maiden at Ascot in January, then 45 days later should have beaten Essentric Nature in a 60+ Graduation and then last weekend toyed with older horses. Didn’t beat anything (Trespassing, Close At Handy, Gate Roads filled the first four) and had the perfect run in transit three deep cover, but it was about the way he powered clear late. ALL GRUNT had his colours lowered at the hands of Too Soon in the Lex Piper. He’s the proven commodity. WITH DISCRETION is up sharply in grade but has improved in shades. LATER ALLIGATOR had genuine excuses.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – SAIL SESSION WIN

RACE 9

FILTHY HABITS will only get better and better (and tougher and tougher) into his preparation. Resumed with 60kg first-up at 1690m in a race where they stopped the clock 4L faster than average and he never gave it away. He’ll keep turning up and he’ll keep running well. PREMIUM GIRL rises 400m in distance which is a natural query, but Tony Triscari has gone at over 25% for 750 days. Unreal. SOWAR is going incredibly well for an 8 year old. COVERT ROSE tries hard.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 3 – 9

Suggested Bet – FILTHY HABITS EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,4,5

1,6,7

1,2

1,3,4,5,8,9

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