Races

Scott Embry’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

CRYSTAL’S DREAM is starting to establish herself as an above average filly with a decent future. Won her maiden in style in a race which has since produced four midweek winners, got the job done in a very similar race last start when heavily supported at the short odds from $2.20 into $1.70 and looks to be screaming out for 1650m. Rises 3.5kg to 59.5kg which is an ask but the small field suits. MEGAMI is very much a hit or miss commodity at the minute. They took a sit with her last start and she burst through impressively to score. Real X-Factor filly. YARRALEA gets 1kg on Crystal’s Dream from last start. WOZZECK gets 5kg on Crystal’s Dream and has blinkers on first time.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – CRYSTAL’S DREAM WIN

RACE 2

TRESPASSING, SUPERSESSION and MARMOOGA clashing is a very exciting contest. Throw in RENATO and THE BIG ONE and this is a great 1000m maiden which should be a hot form reference race over the coming weeks. Siding up with MARMOOGA who looks like she can hold a position from the gate and has trialled up nicely without blinkers. Shades on for her debut and Simon Miller has been wheeling out some impressive maiden winners recently (Valsassina, Lucky’s Way, Bisector etc). SUPERSESSION trialled in blinkers at Lark Hill and descended upon them down the centre. Looks to have a lot of ability. TRESPASSING has the best race form by lengths but the barrier is the big unknown. No surprise to see him overcome the obstacles. Nice horse. REANTO can shoot up the cutaway late.

Numbers: 12 – 7 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet – MARMOOGA WIN

RACE 3

MY BABY BLUE JEAN didn’t come up last preparation. She was a shade of her 3 year old self and didn’t flatter at any stage. In her previous campaign she won a 3 year old 1000 at Ascot beating Beads and He’s A Sizzler when allowed to stride before dominating a C5 1000m straight race at Pinjarra Park. Willing to forgive and forget as she finds a race without any real speed and pressure. Brayden Gaerth can have her free rolling in front and from there she’s hard to run down. MADAM KISSES has been completely luckless this campaign. Held up the entire down the straight, forced to park four and five deep last start when brave in defeat. Deserves one. BEAUTY IN ME never got a fair crack at them last start. Shades on, CJP on. MEN’S CLUB finds yet another new home.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – MY BABY BLUE JEAN WIN

RACE 4

AIN’T NO OTHER MAN gets his chance to shake his ‘nonny’ tag. This is the weakest race he has seen in a long, long time and if he can’t break through here then he’s in trouble. Placed at six of his last eight runs and has recorded second placings to Sniparoochy (now a Listed Fillies & Mares winner), Let’s Galahvant (now a Listed Hannans Handicap winner) and Karli’s Karma (now a WFA Northerly Stakes runner-up). SNIPPY MISS has only won 4 from 47 but is rarely far from the winner. She can sneak up along the fence and take the cutaway. DANCE COCKEY is a tough on speed horse but will need to get across from a tricky draw. KELVIN gets the run he requires.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – AIN’T NO OTHER MAN WIN

RACE 5

THE ADMIRAL got shuffled a long way back first-up and ran home well through traffic late to finish only 1.2L off Rulelee. Should only improve second-up, can settle closer in the run and strikes a winnable race. Looks as though Zac Luvs To Fly will get his own way in front and The Admiral can keep him within his sights and pounce late. WUNDERKIND is knocking on the door. She can park up leader’s back and follow the cutaway rail home. Big effort last start behind Allmamoney and meets Ninetyone Dwyer 1.5kg better at the weights for beating her home. RED CADILLAC was much better than reads on paper on Saturday. NINETYONE DWYER is an honest mare.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet – THE ADMIRAL WIN

RACE 6

DEFIANT DIORITE and LUCKY’S WAY are two three year olds who look very well suited in this C1 1300. DEFIANT DIORITE hails from the in form Chris Willis yard and since beating home Crystal’s Dream first-up at 100-1 has shown it was no fluke with honest efforts into third behind subsequent 60+ Graduation winner Brave Venture, a fourth to Laquetta’s Gift and Gage Roads and then finished a narrow fourth behind Feels Playful, Laquetta’s Gift and Saloon Bar in a 3 year old 1400. Drawn the inside, Alan Kennedy aboard and likely to round double the price of the filly. LUCKY’S WAY was an impressive debut winner. Still has plenty to learn but looks a Saturday horse in the making. Hard to hold out. PLANET CASH is another 3-year-old who broke his maiden with a booming finish. LADY TORNADO is consistent but lacks a killer blow.

Numbers: 4 – 11 – 5 – 12

Suggested Bet – DEFIANT DIORITE WIN

RACE 7 

BANDALERA MISS has put the writing on the wall in recent runs. Four starts ago on Melbourne Cup Day was beaten a nose in a C3 1800 by stablemate Stylax, finished 3L off progressive mare Queen Alina, got back in a leader dominated race at Pinjarra and then sat three deep the trip without cover when only run down late by Ocean Aura and Blue Card. CJP can allow her to find her feet out the back and then start his move from the 600. She’s ready to win. BLUE CARD is likely to be at the other end of proceedings. This race lacks any real speed and Lisa Staples may even elect to take it up. TAXI is coming out of Esperance races but his last two have been very good. ACT INNOCENT an improver.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 12 – 10

Suggested Bet – BANDALERA MISS WIN

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

1,4

3,8

4,11

2,3,12

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