Races

Runner by Runner: Northerly Stakes

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

1. Cascadian (59kg)

Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: James McDonald
Barrier: 12

Two time Group One winner (2021 Doncaster Mile and 2022 All Aged Stakes at Randwick), two time Group Two winner (2022 Peter Young Stakes at Caulfield and Hill Stakes at Randwick) and two time Group Three winner (2020 Doncaster Prelude at Rosehill and 2022 Craven Plate at Randwick) who is one of the most consistently proven WFA performers in the Country. Last seen on 5 November at Flemington when finishing only 1.8L off them in the Group One Cantala Stakes, a run which was good enough to convince world-class hoop James McDonald to make the trip to Perth. JMac has ridden him to four of his last six victories and he’ll be extremely popular in betting. Carries 9kg more than Amelia’s Jewel but he’s got the runs on the board; 11 of his 12 runs this calendar year have been WFA and 7 of those 11 Group One WFA. Trial was sharp.

2. Dom To Shoot (59kg)

Trainer: Sean & Jake Casey
Jockey: Paul Harvey
Barrier: 7

Placed in the 2020 Kingston Town Classic (now Northerly Stakes) as a 3 year old with 52kg on his back when beaten behind Truly Great and Inspirational Girl. Since winning the Mornington Guineas in March 2021 he hasn’t quite reached the same level and has been battling away caught in between Listed Grade and ratings races. His last two wins have been a 72+ 1600 as an $8 chance in February 2022 and a 78+ 1600 last weekend under Damien Oliver at $9. Aptly described by Jake Casey as a “big plodder” and at this level he’s unlikely to have the turn of acceleration or the brilliance to win.

3. Bad Wolf (59kg)

Trainer: Ashley Maley
Jockey: Shaun McGruddy
Barrier: 2

Fighting well and truly out of his weight division here. He’s a m85 rater who carries the same weight as Cascadian, a m117 rater. In a handicap there would be 16kg between them. Last preparation he ran second in the Ascot Gold Cup (now Luckygray Stakes) and went on the staying path towards the Perth Cup. This preparation he again ran second in the same race at 1800m but dropped back into the Carbine Club (1400) and now tackles WFA for the first time in his life in the Northerly. Tash Faithfull was named on him early, the fact she’d rather take a full book at Esperance says it all.

4. Startrade (59kg)

Trainer: Dan Morton
Jockey: Chris Nicoll
Barrier: 8

Continues to raise the bar and continues to take owners Trevor & Leslie Allan and country hoop Chris Nicoll on the ride of their life. The Railway Stakes was Chris’ first Group One ride and he gave Startrade every chance when running home into third behind Trix Of The Trade and Comfort Me. Rises 6kg to tackle WFA for the first time in his life and while he’s an out and out tried the 1800m is likely to test him. Only time he’s been past a mile was in a 78+ 2000 when beaten 3.8L by Sluice Box and Black Shadow. Gives 110% and ran right through the line in the Railway. Big ask but continues to answer every question thrown at him.

5. Kaptain Kaos (59kg)

Trainer: Michael Grantham
Jockey: Lucy Warwick
Barrier: 13

Won at WFA when beating a luckless God Has Chosen over 1600m in winter at Belmont Park in the Group 3 Hyperion Stakes. Since that day he’s been beaten over 4L at each of his four runs (Strickland, Asian Beau, Lee Steere and Railway) and has gone round at an average SP of $48 in those assignments. Yet to prove that he runs past a mile and while his run in the Railway Stakes was a distinct improvement he’s simply not going well enough to trouble the likes of Cascadian and Amelia’s Jewel, he’s still a fair way off Trix Of The Trade, Treasured Star and Bustler on current form.

6. God Has Chosen

Trainer: Donna Riordan
Jockey: Shaun O’Donnell
Barrier: 10

Was a better run than it reads in the Railway Stakes. At the 1000 you could see he was caught deep and destined to do it tough and with Alaskan God on his back you thought he would prove to be nothing more than a tow-ball for the popular second-favourite, but to his credit he kept coming in the home straight and ultimately Alaskan God couldn’t get past him. He has X-Factor and pick-up ride King Shaun O’Donnell jumps on first time. Can’t see him winning but he could add value to novelties.

7. Ironclad (59kg)

Trainer: Will Clarken
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Barrier: 11

Found the task of travelling across to Perth and racing off 7-days in the Railway too much of an ask and failed to fire a shot beaten 5.75L into twelfth. Since arriving in Australia in February 2021 he has had thirteen runs and has never stretched out past a mile. So while he’s a two time 2000m winner (maiden and 3 year old races in UK) it’s interesting to note Will Clarken’s reluctance to step him out over further. Rises 6kg from Handicap conditions into WFA and will go round quadruple the price he did in the Railway.

8. Last Of The Line (59kg)

Trainer: Stephen Miller
Jockey: Brad Parnham
Barrier: 3

SJ Miller was timing his run to perfection racing him in the RJ Peters by choice and backing him up off 7-days into the Railway until the bitter barrier blow. Drew the outside, settled at the rear and wound up brilliantly into the race to finish fifth from a long way off them. Just like Startrade, Ironclad and Notorious One he rises 6kg from the Railway minimum into WFA conditions and so has to concede half a kilo to Trix Of The Trade and Alaskan God, as well as 2.5kg to Searchin’ Roc’s and Treasured Star. Not suited at the weights but he’s too tough to discount from a top 4 perspective.

9. Notorious One (59kg)

Trainer: Chris & Michael Gangemi
Jockey: Laqdar Ramoly
Barrier: 15

Was back to his old tricks in the Railway. Over-raced through the middle stages forcing rider Laqdar Ramoly to steady from heels at the 1200 and race wide from that point on. Lay inwards noticeably in the straight before being buffeted around over the last 250m as horses tried to make their runs inside and outside of him. Chris & Michael Gangemi swap blinkers for winkers (gear changes made at five of his last six starts) and patience must be wearing thin. Jumps triple figures.

10. Trix Of The Trade (58.5kg)

Trainer: Colin Webster
Jockey: Troy Turner
Barrier: 16

Is a star. His 14 start career now boasts a CV including: Breeders Classic (1400), Challenge Stakes (1500), Lex Piper Stakes (1600) and a Group One Railway Stakes (1600) as well as placings in the JC Roberts Stakes (1800), Melvista Stakes (2200) and Asian Beau Stakes (1400). Winner of 9 from 14 and his only blemish was in the WATC Derby when nothing went right and he was ready for the paddock after a lengthy campaign. Tests the waters at WFA for the first time in his life and drew a lemon at the barrier draw on Tuesday evening but he’ll join the three deep train and $3 a place about a proven winner like him will look like a wise investment to many a punter.

11. Alaskan God (58.5kg)

Trainer: Dan Morton
Jockey: Chris Parnham
Barrier: 6

Do you forgive, forget and follow up or do you forget and move on? His run in the Asian Beau was out of this world when charging to the line from an impossible position on straightening and recording a faster L200 than Black Type sprint winning mare Miss Conteki on the same day. Granted the Railway probably didn’t pan out as connections had hoped in the Railway Stakes but ultimately, he had the back of God Has Chosen in the run and failed to get past him in the run to the post. He’s better than that, we know it and we trust it. Was the Asian Beau effort the run of a stayer fresh and then he simply didn’t have the same sharpness second-up? We find out on Saturday because the 1800m of the Northerly has always been his main aim. Watching his Melvista and WATC Derby wins help the forgiveness.

12. Steinem (57kg)

Trainer: C Maher & D Eustace
Jockey: John Allen
Barrier: 4

Won the Group 3 Mares Summoned Stakes at Caulfield over almost a year ago to the day (27 November 2022) and skyrocketed from a handicap rating of m74 to m98. Has had six runs since that victory and clearly the best of those was her most recent effort in the Group 2 Matriarch Stakes for the Mares over 2000m at Moonee Valley when finishing second to Atishu who has since run second in the Ballarat Cup on Railway Stakes Day. Had a maintenance trial last Monday over 1000m and was working through her gears late and through the line. Has tactical speed which this race is desperately lacking and may even find herself in front from the gate. Beware John Allen in a sit and sprint.

13. Searchin’ Roc’s (56.5kg)

Trainer: Jim Taylor
Jockey: Kyra Yuill
Barrier: 14

Picked up a Golden Ticket into the Railway Stakes when winning the RJ Peters to add a second Group victory to her resume: Group Three Champion Fillies, Group 3 RJ Peters, Listed Belgravia, Listed Belmont Oaks. Raced in the Kingston Town Classic last season as a 3 year old filly and was only beaten 2.75L behind Regal Power, Western Empire and Kissonallforcheeks. Was wrong place, wrong time in the Railway Stakes navigating away from the tiring heels of Buster Bash, Marocchino and Karli’s Karma, however, at the same time once clear was only matching motors with Kaptain Kaos. Like Steinem don’t be surprised to see her forced into a forward position due to the lack of genuine tempo.

14. Treasured Star (56.5kg)

Trainer: Adam Durrant
Jockey: William Pike
Barrier: 5

Will have her fair share of admirers at odds in the Northerly on Saturday. Lightly raced mare who powered away from them in the 2021 WA Guineas to book herself a guaranteed ballot-exempt entry into the 2022 Railway and managed to pick-up the Group 3 Asian Beau on the way through. Thought her luckless run in the Railway was outstanding and if she had got into clear air would have played a part in the finish. Amazingly ran the fastest L200 of the Railway when untested to the line, that’s how well she was going when finding roadblock after roadblock. Has to rise again to WFA and to 1800m but she’s dangerous with a soft run into the race. Too good to ignore in the Railway. Wary.

15. Bustler (52kg)

Trainer: Neville Parnham
Jockey: Steven Parnham
Barrier: 9

Is coming to the end of an extremely successful preparation. At 10am on Monday it looked as though there were going to be 18 acceptors and the Handicapper was going to need to wield his discretionary power and ballot him into the race. Luckily enough Yonkers and Trap For Fools didn’t accept and he’s in the race without any controversy. Five starts, four wins and only run down in the last 200m by Amelia’s Jewel in the WA Guineas. When you consider that she had his back the entire race and he had to make multiple stop-start runs in a muddlingly run race you can mount a case for him to cause the upset. Scarily still improving with racing and is raw but ready. Legitimate top 4 commodity.

16. Amelia’s Jewel (50kg)

Trainer: Simon Miller
Jockey: Patrick Carbery
Barrier: 1

‘The one we’re scared of’ seems to be the feeling emanating from the Godolphin stables and from each of the rival Western Australian camps. Since Playing God won the Kingston Town Classic as a 3-year-old in 2010 there have been another four follow in his footsteps, Ihtsahymn (2013), Perfect Reflection (2015), Arcadia Queen (2018) and Kay Cee (2019). Of those gallopers Playing God, Ihtsahymn and Arcadia Queen also won the Guineas on their way through and she’s looking to add to that list. Has had a nationwide following since her 2-year-old days and her win in the WA Guineas suggests that she can be spoken about in the same sentences as those 3-year-old Kingstown Town Classic winners of previous years. 50kg and barrier 1, is ominous.

SELECTION: AMELIA’S JEWEL

Each year punters try and identify the standout 3-year-olds to back in the Northerly Stakes as 52kg for the Colts/Geldings and 50kg for the Fillies at WFA is such an attractive proposition. Most years it is trying to pinpoint the star from Peters Investments but in 2022 it has been Amelia’s Jewel and Bustler from a fair way out. Amelia’s Jewel travels in the run, has a turn of acceleration and profiles in a very similar manner to Arcadia Queen in 2018. Any other year if you won the WA Guineas as an odds-on favourite and ran through the line, you’d be under $2.50 in the Northerly but with Cascadian in the field we’re seeing $3+.

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