Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

Undefeated trial stars LIVE TO TELL and A LOT OF GOOD MEN clash in the Initial Plate and will take up ~85% of the market between them meaning that the rest of the field will likely balloon in price leading into the 11:59am return to Ascot Racecourse. LIVE TO TELL has the tactical speed to overcome a wide draw and likely parks up outside speedy grey filly Shell Bell and settles a pair in front of her main rival A LOT OF GOOD MEN. From there she’ll take running down. Looks highly professional. A LOT OF GOOD MEN is no slouch. He’ll potentially stalk her every move. SHELL BELL is quick. BRAVE HALO hit the line well once in the clear at trials.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet – LIVE TO TELL WIN

RACE 2

AXEL ‘R’ EIGHT has a pretty average paper record at Ascot (no placings after 8 attempts), however, he’s a new horse with his new trainer Ash Maley and three of those ‘failed’ attempts were the JC Roberts, Melvista and Derby as a 3 year old. Gritty on speed win last start when plunged in betting and the fact that there’s been rain around during the week should ensure there’s a little bit of give in the track for him. Parks up outside of Devonia and they can control the speed and the race between them. BLACKWATER BAY looks just about ready. Returns to Ascot, has the pads coming off and gets weight on both Axel ‘R’ Eight and Devonia. DEVONIA is a progressive little mare. She’s tough and she’s honest. SOWAR has another tricky gate to navigate.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet – AXEL ‘R’ EIGHT WIN

RACE 3

HENCHARD was only moderate last Saturday at Kalgoorlie but plenty of horses fail travelling for the first time to the Goldfields and then bounce straight back to form. Big win two starts ago at Belmont from a long way off them, on the 7 day back-up, reunited with regular rider Clint Johnston-Porter and comes back to 1500m. The Westspeed Platinum races have been dominated by 4yos so far this season and he should get the right run. GINGER BAKER is proving a frustrating horse to follow. He’s going well enough to win but he’s also caught awkwardly between grades. This is very winnable for him. MARCHAMLEY hasn’t been seen for 2 months but he can roll to the top without challenge. TINSNIP is just about ready.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – HENCHARD WIN

RACE 4

CASTILLO DEL LAGO looks to have found a really suitable set up. He has only won the two from 22 but he’s clearly returned to racing well and should appreciate the shorter, sharper Ascot style of racing. Brad Rawiller is very good at pinching a cheap section or two on these types of horses and then kicking into the corner. Think he’ll try to rack and stack them before going for home. GREAT FORTUNE stepped out to the 2200m of the Toodyay Cup last start and didn’t see it out. Also ran the first mile 11L faster than average. Can park on Castillo Del Lago and enjoy a gun run. NEVER SOBER is getting closer to picking up another race. QUEEN ALINA may need some luck from three back the fence.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 9

Suggested Bet – CASTILLO DEL LAGO WIN

RACE 5

BUSTLER looks a very talented 3 year old resuming. He is only a Belmont winter maiden winner and all twelve rivals are still maidens three months later, so there is an element of unknown with the quality and depth of the form out of that race, however, he looks well above average and was given a huge Carnival push by Neville Parnham in his post-race assessment. Trialled super, maps a treat and gets in on the minimum. Think he can remain undefeated. TIFFANY STREET looks the danger. Ran well fresh behind Just Go and then didn’t seem to handle the shifting conditions of a deteriorating Belmont Park last start. Undefeated at Ascot and drops to a career low weight. TRADE WAR trialled super and was a fresh winner when last in work. REAL DANGER is a query at 1200 but gets a soft run.

Numbers: 9 – 6 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – BUSTLER WIN

RACE 6

VAMPI AT PLAY profiles similarly to Bustler in the previous race. This is the second division of the split 60+ 1200 and she also is a lightly raced 3 year old who gets in on the minimum from an ideal barrier. Second to Top Of The Pops (with excuses) first-up last campaign and ended the preparation holding out well thought of filly Sentimental Belle. Never taken out of first gear in the trial and looks progressive. COLOSSAL should find a nice spot midfield with cover and has a big turn of foot in his weaponry. REAL GRACE put away a weak field at Geraldton when finally seeing daylight. Has X-Factor. PENNYS AFIELD trialled brilliantly. Will need a three deep line to build.

Numbers: 13 – 3 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet – VAMPI AT PLAY WIN

RACE 7

RIVER BEAU is a high speed, high pressure 1000m horse who needs to draw a barrier to box seat on free-rolling leaders. That is the exact set up he gets here with Olga Louisa and Mervyn likely to go toe to toe in a battle of WA’s quickest with Steve Parnham and River Beau able to park up in behind them. Has been trialling well and is a proven weight carrier. Looks the map horse. ROKANORI returns to the races as a Gelding and while 1000m is likely to be on the shorter side he’s all class and can make an impact over the Carnival. MOOD SWINGS is going super. Coming back to 1000m the only minor query. SNEAKY CHANCE may have to concede them a big head start.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 2 – 11

Suggested Bet – RIVER BEAU EACHWAY

RACE 8

ADVANCED looks to have an awkward barrier on paper, however, in the event that the four emergency runners are not required he’ll come right into barrier 9. That should allow him to park midfield in the moving line and wind-up into the race. Big winner off a similar map two starts ago and then charged to the line in a 72+ behind Benji’s and Alsephina last start. Ready to continue his way through the grades. KARLI’S KARMA trialled like a beast at Lark Hill and rewarded trial watchers with an effortless fresh victory. She’s got an excitement factor about her. BROOKLYN PIER has been racing well at Belmont and is even better suited at Ascot. GINGER GREEN is extremely consistent.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet – ADVANCED WIN

RACE 9

ALL SHOW made a splash at her return to racing. Shaun O’Donnell had absolutely no intention of leading but at the same time All Show had absolutely no intention of going any slower. Beat highly talented colt Swear To God by over 2L in neutral and stamped herself as one of the more exciting young sprinters in the State. Will need an ounce of luck from barrier 1 but looks very classy. SNOWDOME has been trialling with (and better) than the big boys (and girls) and looks set for a big preparation. Barrier is the concern. RUMOUR SAYS has only beaten winter 2 year olds but certainly looks like she’ll measure up at Ascot. TOP OF THE POPS might find 1000m on the sharp side.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – ALL SHOW WIN

RACE 10 

TREASURED STAR is the horse most race goers will be most excited about seeing in the flesh at the opening of the Ascot season. Was skittled in the Burgess Queen when going for the same run as the eventual winner Buzzoom and yet still only finished 4L off her, Searchin’ Roc’s and Flying Missile. Destroyed them in the WA Guineas and is the All-In Favourite for the 2022 Group 1 Railway Stakes. Barrier is a nice leveller but she’s the real deal. EM TEE AYE couldn’t ask for a better map. Stalks the leaders after being forced into that role last start. EEYORE WAYZ is racing in career best form. Huge effort last start with 60kg. BUSTER BASH has to come back to 1400m which isn’t ideal.

Numbers: 6 – 12 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet – TREASURED STAR WIN

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

2,3,5,11

2,3,4,6,8,11,13

1,4,6

6,12

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