Dogs

David Shortte’s Perth Cup Preview

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

BOX 1 – HECTON BALE (Enzo Crudeli)
Black Dog | 3YO | Prizemoney: $421,848

Proven Group 1 performer who won his heat by more than five lengths defeating Lhotse Monelli in the time of 29.75 when coming from box four. Has come from this draw on 7 occasions for 4 wins and 2 placings and ran a new personal best early split of 5.50 last week. If he could run a similar early sectional here would land into a nice spot through the first corner and be powering to the line late. Box one has provided the winner of the last three Perth Cup Finals and I rate Hecton Bale as one of the best value runners in this lineup. Has firmed from $17 into $9.50 in the last two days with TABtouch. If there happened to be any trouble with the wider drawn runners getting over, Hecton Bale would become a major player at juicy odds.

BOX 2 – KISS ME LINDA (Christopher Halse)
Black Bitch | 2YO | Prizemoney: $26,365

The youngest runner in this lineup and will be having just her 16th career start in the Group 1 Final. Gave plenty of cheek in her heat as a $27 chance when leading for a long way prior to be running down late by Dyna Patty in a time of 29.97 making her the slowest qualifier. From 11 starts at this track and distance has managed 3 wins and a further 7 placings but most of those have been in much easier races. Clearly looks to have a bright future but is likely to need to find a few lengths to figure against a field of this quality. Will be going around at big odds and likely to need her share of luck to finish on the podium.

BOX 3 – EIGHTY EIGHT (Paul Stuart)
Blue Dog | 2YO | Prizemoney: $66,095

Model of consistency who has had 30 lifetime starts for 8 wins and 16 placings. Finished runner-up behind West On Augie in his heat when beaten 2 ½ lengths in the overall time of 29.91. Not the most reliable at box rise and is likely to find himself back in the pack in the early stages but can use the rails to boot up and would not be a complete surprise to see him sneaking home into the skinny end of the prize at big odds. A win would shock but might be one to throw in for third and fourth in trifectas and first fours to add some value.

BOX 4 – HASTEN SLOWLY (Christopher Halse)
Black Dog | 3YO | Prizemoney: $440,680

Outstanding sprinter who was recently crowned the Queensland Greyhound of the Year despite racing out of Victoria. Has won the Group 1 Brisbane Cup and been placed in a further 5 Group 1 finals in what has been an extraordinary career. Came from box five in his heat when running a first split of 5.48 to sit second before powering home to victory in 29.79 beating Bundles Galore by 3.5 lengths. His career record of 54 starts for 19 wins and 23 placings has been run almost exclusively at the top level and he quite simply does not know how to run a bad race. I have enormous respect for this fellow but his box four record is not great (1 win and 3 placings from 7 attempts) and he maps to potentially be in a squeezy spot in the rush to the first corner. He has class on his side and cannot be ruled out but I think it looks tricky from the draw. A must include for novelty plays given his place percentage but may have to overcome some challenges in transit to find his way to the podium.

BOX 5 – DYNA PATTY (Andrea Dailly)
Dark Brindle Bitch | 3YO | Prizemoney: $513,110

Recent Australian Cup winner who put on a clinic in the Perth Cup Prelude here a fortnight ago when after exiting box one she recorded an early split of 5.47 before zipping around the Cannington 520 metre circuit in a best of night time of 29.56  defeating West On Augie by 6.25 lengths. In her heat after coming from box five she had to overcome a number of bumps in running before eventually getting clear to run down Kiss Me Linda to win by a length and a half in 29.87. She can clearly go much quicker than what she did in her heat but draws inside of Campini here who has had a tendency to want to cut down to the fence in the run to the first corner and that may impede her early progress.  I am no knock on her whatsoever and she is clearly flying but my speed map has her getting squeezed in the early stages and if that is the case could be spotting a couple of very smart dogs a head start. With a clean run can run the times to win this event but I am not sure she will get the room to work through the gears.

BOX 6 – CAMPINI (Paul Stuart)
White and Black Dog | 2YO | Prizemoney: $41,690

One of WA’s fastest chasers who has won 9 of his 14 career starts and last week in his heat came from box five and ran an early split of 5.56 sitting third before unleashing a powerful finishing burst to defeat Petria Monelli by 5.75 lengths in the second fastest heat time of 29.62. There is no doubting this fellow has the engine to compete at this level but quite simply the draw hurts him here. He has had 3 tries from box 6 in his career to date and finished unplaced on all 3 of those occasions. He relishes an inside draw and grows a leg when he can get to the fence but given the makeup of this field I am not sure he can get to where he wants to be early enough in proceedings to have an impact. So often in quality Group 1 fields the box draws are the key to success and this time around the draw makes his task tough.

BOX 7 – ORSON ALLEN (Correy Grenfell)
Fawn Dog | 2YO | Prizemoney: $323,645

Speed machine who was clearly the most impressive performance in the heats coming from box 4 when recording a phenomenal first split of 5.38 before putting on the jets and stopping the clock in a slashing 29.32, defeating the talented Love Me Tinder by more than 9 lengths. His overall time was more than 4 lengths superior to the next fastest qualifier Campini and his early split was more than a length and a half quicker than the second fastest split of Hasten Slowly. Only a fortnight ago he ran down the smart Nervous An Weird to win the Horsham Cup in grand style and his overall career record of 48 starts for 24 wins and 11 placings is exceptional. Importantly he maps to get room to use his blistering early dash with Campini on his inside likely to head down to the rails and West On Augie on his outside likely to hold his line. If he reproduces his heat performance it is going to take an extraordinary run to defeat him. Deserves to be clear cut favourite.

BOX 8 – WEST ON AUGIE (Christoper Halse)
Red Fawn Dog | 3YO | Prizemoney: $358,590

National Sprint champion who came from box four in his heat when overcoming a couple of early bumps to eventually lead throughout, defeating Eighty Eight by 2.5 lengths in 29.72. Has gone as quick as 29.40 at this circuit in the past and has won 4 of his 8 starts from this box. Maps to get a lovely run over with Orson Allen in the run to the first corner and if he can hold up close to the early speed can be right in the finish. Loves racing here where he has had 35 starts for 23 wins and 3 placings and if there was to be a jam up with dogs getting tangled on their way over to the rails could be the recipient of a slingshot around them. His form over the last three months has been exceptional and he has been set for this race for some time now. Proven Group 1 performer and must be respected.

LOVE ME TINDER (RESERVE 1): Speedy local who has had 13 starts for 6 wins and 7 placings but they have been in much easier company. Did a good job to finish runner-up in his heat but was beaten more than 9 lengths by Orson Allen. Has drawn box 1 in the Consolation and likely to run a mighty race in that. Will be at big odds if gaining a start here though.

PETRIA MONELLI (RESERVE 2): Showed good pace to lead her heat before being run down by Campini, finishing second in a time of 30.03. Most of her recent form has been in graded company and this is a quantum leap in class on those efforts. Would be at cricket score odds if gaining a run.

SELECTIONS

7 – Orson Allen

8 – West On Augie

1 – Hecton Bale

5 – Dyna Patty 

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