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Digby’s AFL Round 22 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

West Coast v Hawthorn

Friday, Domain Stadium 6.10pm

Like just about every other side in the competition, West Coast have had their issues with Hawthorn in recent years. Last season’s grand final and the round-two rematch spring to mind. But before those games, there was a qualifying final in Perth which the Eagles won convincingly. A repeat of that result here would enhance their bid to climb into the top four, a prospect revived by their pulsating victory against Greater Western Sydney.

Hawthorn blitzed North Melbourne early, then looked very much a middle-of-the-road side after that. They need to be ruthless throughout against the Eagles, who are extremely difficult to break down in Perth. The absence of Ben Stratton in the Hawks’ back half will be telling if the supply to the West Coast forward line, led by Josh Kennedy, is sufficient. Provided Adam Simpson’s men handle a second successive six-day break and travel, they win.

VERDICT: West Coast by 11 points.

1st goal scorer: Jack Gunston

North Melbourne v Sydney

Saturday, Blundstone Arena 11.45am

North Melbourne are well aware of what they need to do to secure a finals berth. Being able to accomplish it however, is an entirely different matter. The four points that the Kangaroos require to be assured of a finals berth are unlikely to be in their possession at the completion of this match. The expected return of Kurt Tippett to a Sydney side fresh off a mauling of St Kilda should see to that.

That the Swans are capable in an arm wrestle and, if last weekend is any indication, only too happy to oblige in a shootout, is alarming for their premiership rivals. Lance Franklin was awesome opposed to the Saints, especially after half-time, and with the Swans midfield in brilliant touch, it is difficult to see how North’s wounded line-up can prevail.

VERDICT: Sydney by 32 points.

1st goal scorer: Isaac Heeney

Richmond v St Kilda

Saturday, MCG 12.10pm

A week after notching a typically emotional win, Richmond found a way to cough up a match that was seemingly safely in their possession. How they respond to the drama-filled last quarter against Geelong in this encounter is anyone’s guess. Likewise, the attitude St Kilda bring knowing their faint finals aspirations are over courtesy of a brutal Sydney display, is a mystery.

Tigers coach Damien Hardwick remains steadfast in his belief that his side can rebound quickly in 2017. Others aren’t so sure. What is certain however, is if Richmond are to climb the ladder next season, their midfield of Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shaun Grigg, Anthony Miles and Brandon Ellis, will be behind the rise. Their efficiency here opposed to a fleet-footed Saints running division, headed by Jack Steven, shapes as the key.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 11 points.

1st goal scorer: Tim Membrey

GWS v Fremantle

Saturday, Spotless Stadium 2.35pm

Finally, there is good news for Fremantle. Their ineptitude in their final match outside of Perth for the year won’t be watched by a big crowd. While the talent-laden Greater Western Sydney are clearly on the rise, they still don’t attract big crowds at Spotless Stadium. Regardless of how many turn up, they will be watching a lopsided contest.

The Giants did a lot right against West Coast, but their inability to execute late proved telling. Given Fremantle’s deficiencies everywhere on the ground, including the midfield, expect Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel, Tom Scully, Josh Kelly, Ryan Griffen and Lachie Whitfield to run amok and provide their dangerous forward line with ample opportunities.

VERDICT: GWS by 54 points.

1st goal scorer: Jeremy Cameron

Collingwood v Gold Coast

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

In a game featuring two sides out of finals contention, this match still has a large degree of interest attached to it. Gold Coast have broken with tradition by opting to remain in Melbourne all week following their disappointing loss to Essendon last Sunday. How the Suns players respond to a week outside the norm and being in a hotel rather than in their own confines could yet determine whether other interstate clubs follow suit in the future.

The Suns were poor for large periods against the Bombers, while Collingwood stretched the necks of the Western Bulldogs, with their midfield and the return of Darcy Moore in attack proving a genuine handful. The loss of Taylor Adams and Ben Reid to injury hurts Collingwood, but on what we witnessed last weekend, they deserve to be favourites.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 34 points.

1st goal scorer: Darcy Moore

Port Adelaide v Adelaide

Saturday, Adelaide Oval 5.40pm

Traditionally, there isn’t a great deal between these two bitter rivals. But given the plight of the two teams in 2016, the trend looks like being bucked. Adelaide continue to storm towards a top-two spot and are pulverising sides courtesy of their efficient midfield, organised defence and a forward line stacked with options and potency. Port have no such weapons and enter this match without game-changer Chad Wingard (hamstring).

The only ray of light for the Power is that ruckman Matthew Lobbe returned last week. If he can take improvement from that effort, he might be able to provide his midfielders with first use. If he can’t and the Crows get a stranglehold in the centre square and around the stoppages, the ball will live in Adelaide’s forward 50m. And if that occurs, it’s game over.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 50 points.

1st goal scorer: Taylor Walker

Carlton v Melbourne

Sunday, MCG 11.10am

Melbourne. Finals. They are two words that are not normally intertwined. And depending on what occurs in Hobart on Saturday, they may not even be mentioned on game day here. But if Sydney account for North Melbourne as expected, prepare yourself for a great deal of commentary about the Demons and a rare September berth. And deservedly so.

Paul Roos’ charges are in outstanding touch and it could be argued, more worthy of a finals berth than the limping Kangaroos. They are certainly playing a finals-brand of football — winning clearances, defending stoutly and taking their opportunities when they present. Max Gawn has been superb all season and shows no signs of slowing down. Barring something unforeseen, Melbourne should be alive entering round 23.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 40 points.

1st goal scorer: Jesse Hogan

Brisbane v Geelong

Sunday, Gabba 1.20pm

Having survived a scare against Richmond, Geelong venture north knowing full well that a four-quarter display is required to account for Brisbane. The only concern for Chris Scott, is that his players were well aware of that entering the match against the Tigers and were lame for three quarters.

The Cats need a percentage boost and this represents a great opportunity. Patrick Dangerfield has the capacity to accumulate ridiculous numbers here and if his fellow runners fill up their boots against a Lions side not that keen on defending, Geelong’s top-four hopes will be boosted significantly.

VERDICT: Geelong by 80 points.

1st goal scorer: Tom Hawkins

Essendon v Western Bulldogs

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 2.40pm

The Western Bulldogs keep believing anything is possible. And who are we to argue. Beset by injuries to key personnel, they continue to defy the odds and keep on winning. They weren’t at their best against Collingwood, but still snared the points, with the input of Marcus Bontempelli crucial.

Essendon gave their long-suffering fans some much-needed joy last weekend against Gold Coast, with a narrow win in a match that featured the debut of Jake Long, son of dual premiership star Michael. Both he and the Bombers will find this assignment considerably tougher as the Bulldogs sharpen their focus for September.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 38 points.

1st goal scorer: Jake Stringer

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