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Digby’s AFL Round 3 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Port Adelaide v Essendon

Friday, 5.50pm Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide headed into 2016 fully believing the woes of last season were behind them. If last Saturday’s display against Adelaide was any guide, they still have a mountain of work to do. And sadly for Port fans, this game will not really prove anything. The Power will win and win comfortably despite Essendon’s shock round-two win victory over Melbourne.

The Bombers were everything Port weren’t last weekend — were well coached, spirited and prepared to defend stoutly. Youngsters Darcy Parish, Joe Daniher and Zach Merrett all performed brilliantly and the experience of James Kelly, Mathew Stokes and Brendon Goddard complemented the youth. Essendon have sufficient experience and coach John Worsfold will lean on all it in what promises to be a hostile environment.

Port will expect more from Charlie Dixon — not more whingeing, but more influence. In fairness to the big-priced recruit, he was working against a swag of Adelaide defenders and was not exactly the recipient of quality supply. The Power are proving very reliant on individual brilliance rather than a cohesive team effort, but that will still be enough to win this match.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 45 points.

St Kilda v Collingwood

Saturday, 11.45am MCG

Collingwood dodged a bullet against Richmond last Friday night, but it just might be the result that gets the Magpie machine rolling. An excellent pre-season was turned on its head by a savage defeat at the hands of Sydney, but last week’s result and another four points here should have Nathan Buckley pleased given there is still further improvement to come.

Though the Magpies are still missing some of their preferred 22, the ongoing development of Alex Fasolo, a six-goal hero against Richmond, and Darcy Moore in attack relieves the pressure on Travis Cloke. There were some encouraging signs by Cloke against the Tigers and he could well grab hold of this game against an opponent the Magpies have dominated in recent times.

St Kilda found the pressure and class of the Western Bulldogs too much last weekend, despite the best efforts of Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna, Jack Steven and David Armitage. The Saints need more for longer from their youngsters if they are to take the next step. However, even taking into account Collingwood’s patchy form, it’s difficult to see how the Saints open their account for 2016.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 34 points.

Richmond v Adelaide

Saturday, 12.10pm Etihad Stadium

A seemingly generous start to the season has become a little bit funky for Richmond. Missing some key personnel, notably Brett Deledio, the Tigers fell over the line against Carlton and then coughed up four points to  Collingwood. They now run headlong into Adelaide, who have done nothing wrong in their opening two games and will genuinely believe they can snare this match at their preferred venue away from South Australia.

The Tigers find ways to get beaten better than most, with a lot of heat being aimed in the direction of Trent Cotchin. The Tigers skipper would love to — and needs to — respond here, but he must get considerably more support from his fellow leaders. Dustin Martin has had an excellent fortnight and Brandon Ellis was better last weekend, although the next tier of Richmond runners need to be better when they have possession. And the forwards have to grasp their chances.

Adelaide brutalised Port Adelaide with a complete performance. Effective at the clearances, potent in attack and disciplined in defence, they had the game won a long from the final siren. The Crows have a forward line that sends shudders through the opposition and Dylan Grimes’ hamstring injury deprives the Tigers of a reliable defender against the likes of Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch and Eddie Betts.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 13 points.

Sydney v GWS

Saturday, 2.35pm SCG

The regeneration of Sydney continues to take place at a rapid rate, however this fixture will be a far more stringent test for the new-look Swans than rounds one and two when they beat up on Collingwood and Carlton. Greater Western Sydney’s physicality last Sunday was terrific and effectively wore down Geelong. It was the type of performance which had many bullish about their top-eight prospects before the season started.

The Giants are renowned for their pressure around the contests and that will need to be at a premium here against Luke Parker, Kieren Jack, Tom Mitchell and Dan Hannebery. Callum Ward leads the way for the Giants in the centre square and is dragging along several of his highly skilled younger teammates. The fact that Shane Mumford, a premiership player with Sydney, is now a Giant and a physical presence without peer only aids the GWS cause.

At full tilt, both sides boast two of the best key forwards in the competition — Lance Franklin for Sydney and Jeremy Cameron at GWS. But Cameron will again miss because of suspension and his absence, coupled with the fact that Franklin works superbly with fellow tall Kurt Tippett, tips the scales in the favour of the Swans.

VERDICT: Sydney by 21 points.

Gold Coast v Carlton

Saturday, 5.25pm Metricon Stadium

Heading into last year, many expected Gold Coast to surge up the ladder in Rodney Eade’s first year and strongly contend for a final’s berth. We all know that 2015 was a disaster for the Suns, but 12 months on, that elusive post-season appearance could be on the cards. One of only four unbeaten sides after the opening two rounds, the Suns are controversy-free and committed, not to mention relatively healthy.

Barring a major form reversal, it’s difficult to see how Gold Coast can’t improve to 3-0 with a win over Carlton. Tom Lynch, fresh from signing a two-year extension, looms as a major stumbling block for the Blues defence, which struggled against Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett last Sunday. The manner in which the Suns moved the ball against Fremantle, both from defence and out of the centre square, was highly impressive.

Better ball movement has been a focus of Carlton coach Brendon Bolton over the pre-season and he will lean heavily on Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Patrick Cripps to lead the way against the gifted Suns runners. The issue for the Blues in recent years has been a lack of goals and despite their best efforts this season, the problem remains. Gold Coast currently don’t have such worries.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 39 points.

West Coast v Fremantle

Saturday, 5.40pm Domain Stadium

The 43rd derby shapes as big one. Yes, they are all big and the build-up to each tussle immense, but there is an extra sense of importance about this contest. Embarrassed by Hawthorn for the second time in six months last weekend, West Coast need to respond and prove they deserve to be rated among the competition’s elite. As for Fremantle, they need a win to prove they are worthy of being regarded top-eight prospects.

Games are won and lost in the midfield and both sides will place a premium on their efficiency inside the centre square. Hawthorn were able to nullify Nic Naitanui’s link up with his midfielders and that set the tone. The Dockers simply leaked possession and goals because of their deficiencies at the centre bounces, leaving their normally reliable defence badly exposed. The battle between Matt Priddis, Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff, Jack Redden and co. against Nat Fyfe, David Mundy, Lachie Neale and Stephen Hill among others is crucial.

Fremantle’s lack of leg speed has been highlighted in the first two weeks and it would seem foolish on Ross Lyon’s behalf to want to get into a shootout with West Coast, who can be extremely slick and effective on their home deck. Factor in the firepower forward of centre the Eagles possess and it is a game West Coast fans should be expecting to win.

VERDICT: West Coast by 23 points.

North Melbourne v Melbourne

Sunday, 11.10am Blundstone Arena

It has been a very long time since Melbourne enjoyed a victory over North Melbourne. On what we witnessed last Saturday, it seems inevitable that the Demons will be waiting a little while longer. Then again, very few thought Melbourne would succumb to a spirited Essendon outfit. Paul Roos will instill in his players that, with the right mindset, anything is possible.

One thing is for certain and that is the Demons will need to do everything right against North Melbourne. The Kangaroos have quietly moved to 2-0, wins over Adelaide and Brisbane giving them precious early points which have proved elusive in recent times. The silk of Daniel Wells has been on display in the opening fortnight and coupled with the equally classy finishing of Brent Harvey and Nick Dal Santo, and hard-nosed attitude of Jack Ziebell and Ben Cunnington, Brad Scott’s team has a nice balance around the ball.

The Kangaroos have also been delighted with the input of veteran key forward Jarrad Waite. He is taking contested marks and kicking multiple goals, alleviating some of the pressure on Drew Petrie and Ben Brown, even though they have been important. At the other end of the ground, Jesse Hogan is in the spotlight for the wrong reasons. He will be desperate to respond, but might need a bag if his side is to buck a long-standing trend.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 27 points.

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn

Sunday, 1.20pm Etihad Stadium

Twelve months ago, the Western Bulldogs were comprehensively outplayed by Hawthorn at the reigning premiers’ Launceston fortress, Aurora Stadium. Now the Bulldogs get another crack at the Hawks at their preferred venue, Etihad Stadium. And it is not just the grounds that are different. The Bulldogs have a swagger about them at the present time and enter this match believing, not hoping, they can win.

The dash and line-breaking capacity of the Bulldogs defence has been irresistible in the first fortnight, with WA’s Jason Johannisen elevating his game to another level, while seasoned recruit Marcus Adams has been a revelation. And then there is the composure and class of Easton Wood, Robert Murphy and Matthew Boyd. But it’s not as if Hawthorn lack surety in their defensive half. Josh Gibson had 44 disposals, 17 of which came in the first term, against West Coast last weekend.

A highlight of this contest will be how the emerging Bulldogs’ midfield handles the guile and brilliance of Hawthorn’s runners. Sam Mitchell continues to operate at a ridiculously high level despite his advancing years and will surely come under more scrutiny than he did against West Coast. Both sides can score heavily, but also defend stoutly. If it is to come down to the team which takes its chances at crucial stages, it might be prudent to back in the Hawks.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 5 points.

Geelong v Brisbane

Sunday, 2.40pm Simonds Stadium

One of these days, Brisbane coach Justin Leppitsch will receive some respite. A week-one trip to WA to tackle West Coast was followed by an assignment against North Melbourne last weekend. A grand finalist and a preliminary finalist in successive weeks. Now the Lions have to venture to Simonds Stadium for a clash with Geelong, regarded by most as the competition’s biggest improvers in 2016.

And waiting for them will be a Cats side desperate to atone for a sub-standard display when losing to Greater Western Sydney last Sunday. The Cats were beaten up around the clearances and paid a high price for failing to kick accurately in the first term. Patrick Dangerfield was brilliant in round one against Hawthorn, but quiet last week. He will be keen to showcase his vast array of talents in his first match before the Cats faithful.

Brisbane have proven far too easy to score against in the opening fortnight, with their high press being penetrated by the Eagles and Kangaroos. It is an area which the Cats, who can be elite ball users on their day, will look to exploit and run up a big total. That Brisbane will be without their captain Tom Rockliff (calf) doesn’t help.

VERDICT: Geelong by 51 points.

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Digby Beacham is Deputy Sports Editor of The West Australian




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