Sports

AFL Round 4 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Selections

West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, GWS, Carlton, Adelaide, St Kilda, Richmond, Geelong

Multi

West Coast, Western Bulldogs and Richmond to win by under 39.5 points @ $9.69

Novelty

Matt Priddis to get the most handballs in West Coast v Sydney game at $3.50

West Coast Eagles vs Sydney Swans

Domain Stadium, Thursday 13 April, 6.10pm

The immediate response from West Coast players in the aftermath of last Saturday’s loss to Richmond at the MCG  was to expect a ferocious backlash against Sydney. One would hope so because the lack of efficiency, leadership and willingness to crack in when required at their bogy ground opposed to the Tigers was stark.

A five-day break leading into this contest complicates matters as far as West Coast are concerned, although that might be offset somewhat by the fact the Swans are 0-3 and fielding a far younger side than we have seen in recent memory. Sydney haven’t been as clinical as coach John Longmire would like and that remains a concern entering a hostile Domain Stadium.

It is difficult to envisage a Sydney side slumping to 0-4 just six months after playing in a grand final. Likewise, history suggests only a very good and in-form team topples an Adam Simpson-coached Eagles line-up in Perth. Provided dual Coleman medallist Josh Kennedy bounces back, the attacking firepower of West Coast could expose the inexperienced Swans.

VERDICT: West Coast by 15 points.

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Etihad Stadium Friday 14 April, 2.20pm

North Melbourne have pined for an opportunity to perform on the Good Friday stage for as long as we can remember. With the opportunity afforded to them by the AFL, it is incumbent upon coach Brad Scott and his players to perform at their absolute optimum. And that still might not be enough given the mood of the Western Bulldogs.

Last season’s premiers’ patchy 2017 form was finally exposed by Fremantle last weekend, with the Dockers’ bullocking work in and around the contests for the most part too much to handle. Having been shown up, expect the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Luke Dahlhaus, Lachie Hunter, Lin Jong and Jack Macrae to do everything in their power to hit back.

The Kangaroos asked plenty of Greater Western Sydney in Hobart, but left with the same number of points they extracted from the first two rounds – zero. A 0-4 start to the season would be terminal to their fading finals aspirations. They need to have their efforts rewarded. But as we witnessed in a terrific final month of the 2016 season, the Bulldogs’ best is better than the rest.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 20 points.

Melbourne v Fremantle

MCG Saturday 15 April, 11.45am

There is no denying Melbourne have had their issues with Ross Lyon-coached Fremantle sides in the past. To be fair, that has extended to most teams. But even an optically-challenged football supporter is able to spot the contrasting trajectory of these two clubs at present. Melbourne are trending north after years in the bottom half of the ladder, while the Dockers look like being entrenched down south for some time yet.

However, Fremantle will venture east for this match believing anything is possible. And after their upset of the Western Bulldogs last Saturday night, why wouldn’t they? Their fresh faces, and a few familiar ones, lifted Fremantle to a stirring come-from-behind victory. The same fate befell Melbourne, who dominated Geelong for extended periods, but paid a high price for their inability to kick accurately in front of goal.

Simon Goodwin’s men now have to front up to Fremantle without Max Gawn (hamstring), Jordan Lewis (suspended) and Jesse Hogan (suspended) and question marks surrounding the fitness of Bernie Vince (toe). It is an opportunity Lyon will be loathe to waste given the scrutiny he faced a fortnight into the season. The Demons are a very proficient side at the MCG and their slick ball movement is sure to test Fremantle’s defensive mechanisms.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 28 points.

GWS v Port Adelaide

Manuka Oval Saturday 15 April, 2.35pm

In a perfect world, Port Adelaide would lean on athletic ruckman Paddy Ryder to lead their following division against a GWS midfield is rich in talent, but nowhere near full strength given the absence of Stephen Coniglio and Ryan Griffen with ankle injuries. However, Ryder’s one-week suspension for striking in last Saturday night’s showdown put paid to that scenario.

And sadly for Port, their No.2 ruckman Matthew Lobbe (hamstring) will be missing also. That leaves the Power at the mercy of the imposing Shane Mumford, who continues to service silky pair Josh Kelly and Dylan Shiel, along with inspirational figure Callan Ward. That said, the Power’s running division is in form and resembling the ultra-successful 2014 unit.

If Jackson Trengove is required to spend prolonged minutes in the ruck, Port’s defence is going to be undermanned. That is less than ideal considering the quality and depth of the Giants’ forward line, even taking account the absence of a sore Steve Johnson. Then there is the small matter of the venue. Port lost by nearly triple figures in the corresponding match last season.

VERDICT: GWS by 19 points.

Carlton v Gold Coast

Etihad Stadium Saturday 15 April,  5.25pm

On talent alone, this is a no-brainer. That also seemed the case last Sunday when Carlton and Gold Coast were given little chance in their respective matches opposed to Essendon and Hawthorn. What happened? The unthinkable, according to most.

Thanks to the Blues and Suns opening their accounts and the round-four fixture squaring them up against each other, one of the two has the opportunity to be 2-2. The logical conclusion is the Suns when you factor in their demolition of the Hawks, achieved on the back of a dominant midfield, quality ruckwork from Jarrod Witts and a potent forward line.

But Carlton have solid form also. They asked something of Richmond, nearly toppled Melbourne and handled Essendon. Granted, they aren’t going to overwhelm the Suns with potency forward of centre, but they defend stoutly, are disciplined and organised. Importantly also, their good players are in excellent nick. And home-ground advantage tips the scales in their favour ever so slightly.

VERDICT: Carlton by 3 points.

Adelaide v Essendon

Adelaide Oval Saturday 15 April, 5.40pm

In a season that is only three weeks old, Adelaide have already fronted up to games without Taylor Walker and Josh Jenkins, yet haven’t missed a beat. In this encounter, the Crows will be without both Jenkins (ribs) and Mitch McGovern (hamstring), weakening a forward line that is the envy of all other sides in the competition.

But Essendon will need more than their absence to prevail. The Bombers weren’t helped by the conditions against Carlton, but their inability to hold sway midfield proved costly. That is alarming considering the Crows are the best contested-football side in the competition at present and can slice up their rivals in so many different ways through the most important area of the ground.

Rory Sloane has elevated his game even further in 2017, but the leg speed of Charlie Cameron is a sight to behold as he receives more exposure through the midfield. Essendon coach John Worsfold will look to Matthew Leuenberger to provide his runners with first use in his key battle with Sam Jacobs. If he can’t, the Bombers defence could be in for a torrid evening.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 34 points.

Collingwood v St Kilda

Etihad Stadium Sunday 16 April, 1.20pm

Have St Kilda been at their best for the duration of a game in 2017? No. Do they need to in order to overcome Collingwood and avoid slumping to a 1-3 start? Absolutely. The next question revolves around the Saints being able to achieve that. The expected return of David Armitage (groin) and Jack Steven (punctured lung) might well help.

Collingwood played some excellent football against Sydney early last week and then held on. While they may have been fortunate in the end to leave the Harbour City with the four points, nobody could begrudge Nathan Buckley some overdue joy. Indeed, his midfielders Taylor Adams, Adam Treloar and Scott Pendlebury, and lively forward Alex Fasolo certainly helped his cause.

The Saints had to work overtime to get over Brisbane. Nick Riewoldt was terrific in his return from a knee injury, while Leigh Montagna was also prolific. The finishing of their forwards left a lot to be desired however. If the likes of Tim Membrey and Josh Bruce straighten up this week — and history suggests they will — St Kilda have the weapons and experience inside Etihad Stadium to snatch a crucial win.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 11 points.

Brisbane v Richmond

Gabba Sunday 16 April, 2.40pm

If Justin Leppitsch had his way, he would still be in charge of Brisbane. But the triple premiership defender with the Lions wouldn’t want to be anywhere else than Punt Road at present after Richmond’s barnstorming 3-0 launch to the 2017 season. The Tigers are winning games and winning over those who have previously been critical of them.

Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin set the standard midfield, Jack Riewoldt is engaged in the team’s fortunes other than his own, while the impact of small forwards Daniel Rioli, Dan Butler and Jason Castagna — offensively and defensively — has been pronounced.

As for Brisbane, they are also taking steps in the right direction. It’s just that they are coming from a long, long way back. The Lions had St Kilda on the ropes last Sunday, but were unable to sustain their effort. Captain Dayne Beams is in really good form, as is Tom Rockliff, with the improvement shown by Daniel Rich against the Saints heartening. Their support cast however, is skinny.

VERDICT: Richmond by 29 points.

Hawthorn v Geelong

MCG Monday 17 April, 1.20pm

There were many head-scratching issues to come out of Hawthorn’s drubbing at the hands of Gold Coast last weekend. The main one was how inept the Hawks were defensively, especially during the third quarter when the Suns booted 10 goals. The other was how could an Alastair Clarkson-coached Hawthorn team kick just seven goals for an entire match against modest opposition in perfect conditions?

The inability to hit the scoreboard — a week after they booted six goals in the first term against Adelaide — looms as a major problem against Geelong. The Cats don’t defend like the elite sides in the competition, but they can score. Just ask Fremantle, North Melbourne and Melbourne. Whereas Geelong sit third in points for this season, Hawthorn are 16th — in front of only Carlton and Fremantle.

The lack of leg speed in the Hawks line-up at present is also proving a handbrake. Geelong have in the past exposed the Hawks’ pace by spreading them. It has led to Hawthorn countering that by controlling the tempo of their battles by using their elite kicking skills and denying the Cats possession.  Those hoping to witness a Hawthorn-Geelong classic might be best served watching a replay of last year’s qualifying final.

VERDICT: Geelong by 40 points.

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