The Scout: EPL Week 29 Preview

Posted on March 30, 2023March 30, 2023 | Posted by The Scout

Manchester City v Liverpool

A couple of weeks ago, this might’ve looked like a game Liverpool could win. It’s hard to see how they can do so now.

After their record 7-0 win over Manchester United, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool looked to be back on track before losing 1-0 to struggling Bournemouth and by the same score to Real Madrid as the Reds exited the Champions League.

In their past two outings, Manchester City have thrashed RB Leipzig 7-0 in Europe and Burnley 6-0 in the FA Cup. Of the 13 goals City scored, Erling Haaland fired home eight of them.

Although they scored seven against archrivals United, with two goals each from Mohamed Salah, Darwin Nunez and Cody Gakpo and one from Roberto Firmino, Liverpool haven’t quite been able to take their chances as well as City. Despite creating 2.73 chances per match, compared to City’s 2.81, the Reds have converted at a rate of 1.81 goals per game.

City’s goalscoring rate of 2.48 goals per game has a lot to do with Haaland’s seamless transition from the Bundesliga to the Premier League this season. For all their troubles this campaign, Liverpool have been defensively sound, and they have 10 clean sheets, the same number as City.

There is a lot riding on the game for both sides, with sixth-placed Liverpool chasing a top-four finish, which will guarantee Champions League football again next season, and second-placed City, who are unbeaten in their last 10 games in all competitions, desperate to keep up the pressure on leaders Arsenal.

Defeat to Liverpool could be a hammer blow to City’s hopes of successfully defending their title.

Suggested Bet: Manchester City to win + Both teams to score + Over 2.5 total goals (Same Game Multi) @ $3.10*

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Arsenal v Leeds United

Since losing to Manchester City last month, Arsenal have won six successive Premier League games to extend their lead at the top of the table. The Gunners are eight points clear of City, who have a game in hand.

But it hasn’t all been smooth sailing for Mikel Arteta’s side, who have bowed out of the Europa League after a penalty shootout defeat to Sporting Lisbon.

Any disappointment they might have felt at their exit from Europe’s second-tier competition has been made up for in a belief that the Premier League title is within reach. Arteta now has just one prize to focus on, which could be bad news for defending champions City, as well as this weekend’s opponent, Leeds United.

Last weekend’s international break temporarily put the brakes on Arsenal’s charge, although with individual goalscoring performances from Bukayo Saka (England) and Granit Xhaka (Switzerland), at least two of their key players will return to domestic matters with a spring in their step.

Arsenal attack through the middle with Martin Odegaard and Xhaka, or out wide via Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, and have a stubborn defence that has conceded less than a goal per game with 12 clean sheets.

It’s not exactly what 14th-placed Leeds United, who are just two points clear of third bottom West Ham, want to be facing right now. But there are at least some reasons to be cheerful at Elland Road.

Leeds’ 4-2 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers, which brought a second win for Javi Gracia in just four Premier League games, was a positive way to go into the international break.

The Spaniard was a long way from the top of Leeds’ wish list to replace the sacked Jesse Marsch but with seven points from a possible 12, he has already shown signs of progress.

But on this occasion, it’s hard to see how the likes of Jack Harrison, Luke Ayling and Brenden Aaronson can get the better of the Gunners.

Suggested Bet: Arsenal to win + Over 2.5 goals + Bukayo Saka over 1.5 shots on target (Same Game Multi) @ $3.30*

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Newcastle United v Manchester United

It could be a tale of two Brazilians as Newcastle United are poised to welcome back Joelinton and Manchester United make do without Casemiro for Sunday’s big clash.

Just a month ago, Casemiro was celebrating as he helped Erik ten Hag’s side to a Carabao Cup win over a Newcastle side that had gone into the Wembley final in spluttering form.

A fine Casemiro header was quickly followed by a Marcus Rashford goal as Newcastle’s hopes of a rare trophy win were dashed.

A week later, Newcastle lost to Manchester City before victories over Wolverhampton Wanderers and Nottingham Forest got them back on track and lifted them to fifth place.

If revenge for that Wembley defeat wasn’t enough motivation, Newcastle know they will go above the Red Devils on goal difference if they can spring a surprise at St James’ Park.

Despite two victories during Joelinton’s absence, the big Brazilian could come into the mix as manager Eddie Howe considers his options, although youngster Elliot Anderson could start after being denied a first Newcastle goal against Forest.

Since their Carabao Cup win, Manchester United have blown hot and cold. A 7-0 defeat to Liverpool was followed by victory over Real Betis and a goalless draw against bottom side Southampton, in which Casemiro was sent off. Further wins over Betis and Fulham have United in winning form but they haven’t been convincing.

United have a slight edge in the number of chances they have created this season (2.12 per game versus 2.00) but Newcastle have been much better defensively, conceding just 19 goals to Manchester United’s 35.

Suggested Bet: Newcastle to win + Over 2.5 total goals (Same Game Multi) @ $3.55*

*Odds correct as at 10am, 30th March 2023.

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