Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

MONTELENA was beaten a nose by True Attraction 7 days ago in the Amelia Park Blue Spec (78+) and now steps out to 2200m which should see her prove very hard to beat. Looks like they’ll get along at a decent clip behind Purist and Bella’s Idol which is exactly how she needs the race to be run. Darren McAuliffe takes the shades off and she will be winding up into the race from the 600. ZARATITE finally got the job done last start but it certainly wasn’t pretty. Not showing a real change of speed this preparation and took a long while to grind down Bella’s Idol. BELLA’S IDOL is a marvel. Has been up for an eternity yet continues to run big races. COME PLAY WITH ME loomed large last start with the massive weight before tiring late.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – MONTELENA WIN

RACE 2

GIANT LEAP will appreciate not having to take on Notorious One in this 72+ 1600. Gets weight relief sneaking in on the minimum and looks hard to hold out late. Has enough tactical speed to give Pike options and regardless of where he settles, he should have them within his sights. Certainly hasn’t quite lived up to the early hype but is a nice Saturday ratings type. COCKNEY CREW broke a long run of outs at the end of the Ascot season and is extremely well placed into this grade. Wonderful opportunity for Kristy Bennett to roll to the top, control and dictate the tempo to her own liking. GUNNAGO was scratched last week and won’t know himself with 54. NOBEL LAURENCE didn’t want to be at the races last start. Reluctant to go out, reluctant to load and didn’t stretch out as he had at his previous start.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – GIANT LEAP WIN

RACE 3

POLICIERE looks to have found a lovely race at her return from a spell. Won back to back 2 year old SWP races at Ascot in December/January before being given a freshen and attacking the features. Finished sixth in the Supremacy when being plunged in betting, finished second in the Group 3 Gimcrack splitting Hoi An and Pat’s Got Sass (Liwa fourth) and then in the Karrakatta Plate anything that could go wrong, did go wrong and she was eased out of the race. Recent jump out was sharp. STORY BOOK ran into a special one last start. Pretty stiff to go round in a midweek race and line up against Hardly Ever. Looks to be going well. PRINCE RAGNAR was backed off the boards on debut and was only gunned down late by a handy type in War Gem. DEFENDING bombed the start and lost all winning claims last time out.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – POLICIERE WIN

RACE 4

GUNMETAL GREY never really got an opportunity to chime into the race 7 days ago. Paul Harvey copped a suspension for the hip and shoulder on straightening to try and get her into the clear and then the gaps never opened for him upon balancing. Looked as though she had something in the tank and was only beaten a length behind Zephyr Queen, Campese, Rocky Path, Jag The Joker and Dunbar. On the quick back-up, effectively back in grade into a Westspeed Platinum and looks the one with upside. OHBEEH is a trier and rarely runs a bad race. Deep into the campaign and unlikely to get his preferred track conditions but it is hard to knock any of his recent form. APPLE SCHNAPPS took a while to clear through C1 grade and then went back to back winning a C3. Lindsey Smith has him in career best form and this is no tougher. LOOKS LIKE MAGIC didn’t quite let down in the same manner on top of the ground as she had been doing on the Heavy tracks.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – GUNMETAL GREY WIN

RACE 5

BLAZING BILLY is enormously talented but it is clear that Anne King has had to work through some issues with him over his career to date. Resumed on a Heavy10 off the back of a highly impressive 1100m trial at Lark Hill when Pike did what Pike does, lifted him over the top of Strathmore Rose to score by a nose in a tight photo. Strathmore Rose made that form look good winning a 60+ 1000 herself and from the inside draw he should be sneaking up behind the leaders and with even luck prove hard to beat again. JAG THE JOKER is in a purple patch of form. Comes back to 1000, backs up off 7 days and maps to get a lovely run throughout. REQUISITION draws a gate and looks to be going better than numerical form may suggest. EYE OF THE DAY gave some cheek last start and Type Won made the form look good albeit in a midweek C1.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet – BLAZING BILLY WIN

RACE 6

SALON DU CHEVAL hasn’t won for a long time and is now an 8 year old but it looks like new trainer Neville Parker has him back in form. Runs for Lucy Warwick, is drawn a gate to get a soft run close handy to the speed, is a proven stayer and worked to the line nicely last week behind Porphyrio and Al Mahalo, both of whom are drawn to get a long way back. Looks a winnable race for him. OVERTHOUGHT was backed at odds last week and ran a ripper. Boy Hill can have her right over the top of them in a race without much speed. PORPHYRIO was a different mare last week. Brett Pope made a few changes to gear and preparation of the mare and she was back to her best. No reason why she can’t win again. MISS ZEDEL was plain last week. Prior form was good.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet – SALON DU CHEVAL EACHWAY

RACE 7

BRAVE DREAM had been knocking on the door and building towards another win after a string of eye catching and luckless runs. The victory she notched up however was far more impressive than expected. When CJP got her to the outside and let her balance she unleashed a huge turn of foot to gun down Mr Delegator. Concedes him some weight here but from what we saw she’s a mare on the rise who is capable of winning far better races than this. MR DELEGATOR has a set of shades added to his gear and from the inside draw Kate Southam should have no troubles holding the lead. From there he’s always going to be hard to run down. KARIJINI AURORA broke back into the winner’s circle last start. Should get an identical run here. RED HOT TIP showed first-up that he’ll be winning one sooner rather than later.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – BRAVE DREAM WIN

RACE 8

SAMIZDAT is hugely talented galloper who looks very well suited by the conditions of this race. Second-up, 1300m, Weight for Age and drawn a barrier to get the right run midfield with cover. Meets a number of main rivals better at the weights having beaten them home in the Belmont Newmarket and going off the post-race interview there’s plenty of improvement left fitness wise. Looks hard to hold out on paper and excited to see him fly the flag for WA if/when heading East. TELLEM WE’RE COMIN showed that he is back for new trainer Danny Morton. Weight For Age doesn’t suit him as well as Samizdat given his rating, but he is certainly capable of measuring up in this. Hannans Handicap looks a great race for him (again). TOO CLOSE THE SUN was excellent under the 62kg in the Ngawini. Found 1400 too short last start and now has to come back to 1300. SILENTZ wasn’t beaten all that far in the Newmarket.

Numbers:s4 – 6 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – SAMIZDAT WIN

RACE 9

KAPTAIN KAOS is lightly raced, highly progressive and has real X-Factor about him. Continued his rapid rise through the grades first-up, no trial in a 60+ Graduation which has produced two subsequent winners already. Maiden into a C3 into a 3 year old 62+ last campaign and now 60+ into a 66+. Every time Michael Grantham raises the bar Kaptain Kaos clears it. Versatile and exciting. CLIFFS OF COMFORT was an alarming drifter first-up and ran to his late price tag. Nicely placed into a 66+ but may have to work across early. REIGN OF FIRE will need an ounce of luck at some stage from the inside draw. MOSCHARD is nearly impossible to catch but this is the kind of race Moschard would win.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet – KAPTAIN KAOS WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10

2,4

2,4,6

2,5,9

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