Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

FOREVER DREAMING never looked comfortable on debut and was beaten out of sight in a slick 1000m Saturday 2yo SWP behind Flying Missile. Last start was able to hold a position in running and travelled the winner throughout, letting down to run past subsequent Saturday winner Beads. Should get an identical run in transit here and prove hard to beat. VOGUE’S CHOICE has looked a ready made professional at trials and expecting Lucy Warwick to jump and have a sniff for the front. If she finds the fence she can win on debut. GROUND BRAKER has improved at each and every start this campaign. Should be there abouts. TOPPA THE MOUTAIN gets every conceivable from the inside draw.

Numbers: 8 – 13 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet – FOREVER DREAMING WIN

RACE 2

SPEEDY MISS has run back to back second placings to in form mare I’m Pretty. Backs up off 7 days, drops back from 1400m to 1200m, gains the services of emerging apprentice Holly Watson and maps to get a cozy run close to the speed. Many main rivals are drawn awkwardly so she gets her opportunity to break through. EXPRESS TIME has an imposing strike rate and races on top of the speed. The only query will be her ability to see out a strong 1200. VITAL BLAST was finishing off well fresh and is drawn far better here. PLAYING RED finds bad luck in her races. Hard mare to be following.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet – SPEEDY MISS WIN

RACE 3

ABERDEEN QUEEN is the class mare of the field and while she concedes considerable weight to many in this field she is proven in far strong grade than this. 72+ placed behind Ration Aly and Naughty By Nature as well as eye catching in 66+ grade two starts ago behind Magniforce and dual subsequent winner Comfort Me. At her most recent she was dictated to from a bad gate and was impossible with the way the race unfolded. Did a super job to get as close as she did in the finish and this looks her race on paper. BEAT THE BRO is a little hit and miss in his racing but does look better suited drawn out than in. Will be building from a fair way out. ON RED ALERT did it tough last start and gets a soft run leader’s back here. BLOW ME OUT is a handy filly, just needs some luck from the gate.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – ABERDEEN QUEEN WIN

RACE 4

SECRET PLAN has been a polarising galloper in his short career. Undeniably talented and possesses an electric turn of foot but will always be vulnerable due to his race pattern. Again will concede a head start to some more than handy sprinting types but in a race where there will be pressure throughout he can zap them late. Loved the trial and from the draw just needs to stay within striking distance. VANE TEMPEST is on the 7 day back up from a super effort with 59kg when only nailed on the post by talented filly Timely Outburst. Excellent use of the 3kg claim. ACROMANTULA might get crossed for the first time in the campaign and how he goes from there is a big unknown in itself. REIGN OF FIRE was a little flat last week. Might be better suited at the 1000.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – SECRET PLAN WIN

RACE 5

MISS CONTEKI vs PANZDOWN is extremely similar to Nerodio vs Panzdown a fortnight ago. They are both highly talented, they both possess an electric turn of foot and they are both on the improve. MISS CONTEKI has been given an 8 week freshen to attack the Beaufine Stakes. Drawn inside the stablemate she should enjoy a nice run midfield with cover and provided she stays out of traffic she should again showcase the turn of foot that has seen her win 7 of her 8 career starts. PANZDOWN lost no admirers (in fact may have even gained some) following his defeat at the hands of Nerodio. Genuine top class sprinter with more to come. GEMMA’S SON is no slouch and goes well off a freshen. BOOMTASTIC had no luck last start.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – MISS CONTEKI WIN

RACE 6

SKINNEN TINS looks ready to run a race at odds. Hasn’t drawn a gate all preparation (8 of 11, 13 of 14, 14 of 14) and has endured tough and wide runs so far. Now drops from 66+ grade back into a 60+, drops a half kilo in weight with the claim for Holly Watson, drawn a gate to get a soft run and possess the gate speed to hold a spot in running. Last start ran into the likes of Comfort Me, Sheza Chalmer and Bright Diamond and will go round double figures in a far weaker race. Worth a nibble. MR DELEGATOR trialled up impressively for the new stable. Lightly raced and talented type. SECRET STATUE is dangerous from three back the fence. ZACKARIAH BEAU comes from the same race as Skinnen Tins and just needs the right run to be competitive.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 15 – 3

Suggested Bet – SKINNEN TINS EACHWAY

RACE 7

BLACKWATER BAY meets many of his opponents from last start better at the weights but more importantly is drawn a gate to get a far more economical run in transit. No reason why he can’t reproduce his run of two starts ago which saw him beat Born to Try, Black Shadow, Secret Pearl and All Man. Goes round at an eachway quote and should be running an eachway race. BORN TO TRY is the weight horse after the intriguing engagement of 3kg claimer Keshaw Dhurun. Excellent effort last start and looks a stayer about to go through the grades. TRUE ATTRACTION got caught up in an unsuitable sit and sprint last week. SECRET PEARL is holding form well and always a chance in these wide open staying events.

Numbers: 8 – 10 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet – BLACKWATER BAY WIN

RACE 8

LEADING GIRL is one of the worst suited at the WFA conditions, however, did reel off of fastest overall last 1200, 1000, 800, 600, 400 & 200 of the Hyperion Stakes at 1600m and is only better suited stepping out to the staying trip. In a race where 6 of her 9 rivals are on trial at the trip, she really gets the opportunity to open her Black Type account. THE VELVET KING should land leader’s back regardless of whether he jumps or not. While is yet to win past 1600m he should hold the back of likely leader Dance Music who is likely to give a short sharp kick at the top of the corner and allow him room to move. DANCE MUSIC beat Naughty By Nature at 1800m in the La Trice and meets her 3.5kg better at WFA. Hard to knock. COME PLAY WITH ME is the proven stayer. This is the best race for him of the campaign.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 8 – 1

Suggested Bet – LEADING GIRL WIN

RACE 9

BRIGHT DIAMOND looked disappointing on face value last start but in review may have just run into two better horses. Comfort Me has since won a 72+, Sheza Chalmer a Belmont Guineas and further back from the beaten brigade Tinsnip a 66+. Looks a spirited tempo through Kelly’s Callisto, Zephyr Queen, No Surrender and Peppijack so Pike is likely to have the mare sitting midfield and winding up at the right time. Looks a great race for her on paper. LONSDALE LADY won a 1400+ 66+ first-up last campaign beating Leading Girl. Reproduces that run and is a big danger. NO SURRENDER and THE SPRUIKER are both talented 3 year olds who are well placed against the older horses.

Numbers: 10 – 6 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet – BRIGHT DIAMOND WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,13,15
1,3,4,5,6,8,10,11,14
2,9
6,10

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