Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

TYCOON HARRY is extremely well placed by Jim Taylor. His last 14 outings have been in higher grade and in that period he has won 2x 3 year old Saturdays, a 66+ and placed in 66+ company on a further three occasions. His fresh run was a ripper, beaten half a length behind speedy mare Desert Whisper, Hanchi and Black Ora. Second-up drops into a 0MWLY and while he is yet to win past 1000m he did finish within a neck of Wubin Gold third-up last prep at the 1200m. Great race for him. RECONNAISSANCE is only coming out of a Bunbury maiden on Melb Cup Day but he won by over 2L and smashed the clock, going 7L faster than maiden average. Expect plenty of money for him. LADY BOSS on paper seems to do her best on wet tracks? Market watch. WICKED VENOM trialled well and has form good enough to win this.

Numbers: 2 – 13 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – TYCOON HARRY WIN

RACE 2

FAST HARRY faces his toughest test to date heading into a 60+ Graduation at Ascot off the back of 2x Provincial C3 wins but he just looks to have so much raw ability and upside. Every now and then, especially with Grant & Alana’s horses, you find ones who look to have gears and that’s him to a tee. Provided he’s afforded a fair playing surface, and the SW forecast should assist in that matter, then he’ll be hard to hold out late. SHOWLAS will be at the opposite end of proceedings and she’s a mare capable of working through her grades. HEWILLDOUS did everything wrong on Melb Cup Day and yet still won. SOLDANELLE is Soldanelle. Finds bad luck for fun.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – FAST HARRY WIN

RACE 3

MAJOR MARIO is no star but he’s ultra consistent and you know what you’re going to get with him. He’ll likely lob 1×1 or 1×2 from the draw, he’ll travel kindly for Holly Watson and when she asks he’ll make a run at them. Lovely bread and butter horse and in a wide open and really evenly graded affair he’ll also likely go around eachway. SUMMERS LEGACY has upside to her and could well be on a long winded Country Cups preparation. She toyed with C3 opponents last start but in a capacity line-up at 1800m at Ascot could end up a long way off them at the 600. MAGNA’S CHOICE is on trial at the distance but barrier 1 means he’ll enjoy a soft run throughout. MISSISSIPPI DAWN simply never got into the contest last start and was a disappointing beaten favourite.

Numbers: 9 – 10 – 6 – 15

Suggested Bet – MAJOR MARIO EACHWAY

RACE 4

ASPHALT has now won his last five on the bounce and is seemingly going from strength to strength. Off an 80 day freshen he sat wide throughout under 58.5kg and still proved too strong for his 60+ Graduation opposition and last start took a massive leap forward winning a 72+ and beating September Born and subsequent Burgess Queen Stakes winner Playin’ It Sweet. He’s the real deal. BE BARDOT got the perfect run last start and took full advantage of it. This draw means she’ll have to sustain a run this time around. ROYAL TORONADO gets 4kg on Asphalt with the engagement of stable apprentice Chanel Cooper and has come back in good order. FUNCHAL has to come back to 1600m in the middle of the prep. Might be wanting further?

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet – ASPHALT WIN

RACE 5

CHARINO has only won one race in his life, and that was a Max Simmonds Classic as a 3 year old beating West Star. Since then he hasn’t raced to anywhere near the same level, however, that recent trial behind Acromantula was outstanding and like the barrier 1 draw for him to stalk the likely hot speed set by Sinful Living / Pin Deep / Prospector’s Pick / Jaz Session / Lord Shiva. Trusting the eye. BLACK ORA suffered her first defeat of the preparation last start but now has a set of shades added first time and drops back in grade. Big respect. JAZ SESSION is drawn horrendously in barrier 16/16. Flying but where does she land? LORD SHIVA was extremely popular in betting first-up but couldn’t lead and popped badly on straightening. Lead or lost?

Numbers: 8 – 4 – 11 – 12

Suggested Bet – CHARINO WIN

RACE 6

JOKERS GRIN returned in excellent order taking out the Prince of Wales Stakes at WFA first-up over 1000m. Second-up he heads to the Colonel Reeves which is SWP so he does have to conceded some weight swings to key rivals, but the way he won first-up gives the impression he’s back as big and powerful as ever. If the locals are ever going to beat him it’s here, but still think he’ll sit back and run them all down. OSCAR’S FORTUNE returned to WA and ran really well into second. He looks a big beneficiary of the addition of Acromantula and Oxbridge to the race as he can park and ride in a fast run race. REPOSSESSION ran a solid third behind the key form pair and probably does so again. SPACEWALK brings intrigue.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – JOKERS GRIN WIN

RACE 7 

LONDONS IMAGE and TWAINS ANGEL are clearly the best two mares suited under the SWP nature of the Mares’ Series and given the barrier draws and the likely map very happy to settle on London’s Image. She made her debut for Grant & Alana Williams in the Crawford and split Rope Them In (second under 61kg in the Asian Beau) and Super Smink (subsequent winner of the Lee Steere) and this looks a wonderful set up for her to park on speed and add a third listed race to her CV. TWAINS ANGEL ran well below expectation in that same event. Can bounce back quickly. Is very sharp at her best and capable of carrying the weight. TOROPA drops 6kg second-up and ran second to Repossession in the Beaufine last prep. CESSATION is flying and her last win was off 7 days.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet – LONDONS IMAGE WIN

RACE 8

PLAYIN’ IT SWEET and TALKANCO ran the quinella in the Burgess Queen at 1400m at SWP and now into the Champion Fillies at 1600m they meet at Set Weights meaning that there is a 2.5kg weight swing in favour of TALKANCO and coupled with the barrier draw it makes her increasingly attractive. Looks to get every chance to turn the tables and looks to be ready to run the mile. Has to be really strong throughout betting? PLAYIN’ IT SWEET has won five of her last six and showed great versatility to sit on speed and still fight on and hold off the late challengers. She’s still capable of winning from three deep cover but it’s definitely tougher. PURE EXCESS was a great run into third in that event but concedes 4kg to Talkanco and 1.5kg to Playin’ It Sweet. MOONWALK has shades added, Pike sticks and draws to box seat.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet – PLAYIN’ IT SWEET WIN

Same Race Multi – Talkanco (Top 2) + Playin’ It Sweet (Top 3)

Playin’ It Sweet and Talkanco ran first and second in the Burgess Queen Stakes on Melb Cup Day. With the barrier draw and a 2.5kg weight swing expect that Talkanco can turn the tables. Playin’ It Sweet is versatile and can finish powerfully from three deep cover.

RACE 9

LUANA MISS was devastating in the Prelude and looks set to jump odds on in the $500,000 feature. Her 400 – 200 sprint was electric, as soon as Shaun O’Donnell pulled the trigger she exploded and showed the acceleration of a proper sprinter of the future. She sat in the breeze on debut as a 2 year old so can use the barrier to advantage, park midfield and unleash late. Think she’s awfully hard to beat. SNITZALATTE was the target of big money in the Belgravia and it took the undefeated King of Light to gun her down in the shadows. She’ll sit close handy and loom the winner at some point. CASTLE ROAD is far better suited at Set Weights than SWP and shoud be able to cross them. YES QUEEN has winkers re-applied seemed to come again in the last 150m in the Prelude.

Numbers: 11 – 12 – 1 – 13

Suggested Bet – LUANA MISS WIN

RACE 10

COSMIC CRUSADER sits as ~$4 All-In favourite for the $1,500,000 Railway Stakes next Saturday on Day 2 of the Pinnacles and yet he must win this race just to qualify. If he runs second he won’t get a start, plain and simple, he must win. Was backed into $1.40 in the Asian Beau before breezing in a muddlingly run race (first 800m run 4.5L slower than average, last 600m run 7.5L faster) and ultimately being gunned down by Watch Me Rock and Rope Them In. Time to stand up and prove himself. STORYVILLE was much better in that event and is here deliberately (already ballot exempt as the 2024 WA Guineas winner). Ready to go now. BONJOY got bottled away in a race that wasn’t run to suit, yet still went well. LUVNWAR was a really solid return.

Numbers: 3 – 11 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet – COSMIC CRUSADER WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

6,9

4,5

1,3,4,5,9

2,3,5,7,11,14

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