Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

RIVER RUBICON looks to have found a very winnable 3 year old Plate after beating the older horses last start in a 60+ Graduation. Coming back in trip third up into the campaign is probably the minor concern (was nominated for the 60+ 1600 and the 66+ 1400) but this is not a deep race. Jury is really out on Arcadia Grace and the main danger has a 3kg claimer. Draw is awkward but he looks a versatile type. Trusting in Shaun McGruddy to make the right decisions and keep him out of trouble. Hard to beat. RED FIFTY THREE is a wonderful opportunity for Jett Stanley to notch another Saturday winner. Should bounce straight to the front and with Heavenly Waters carrying 60kg and being ridden more conservatively these days he should get it cheap. ARCAIDA GRACE stalks them. This is her acid test. POLICIERE is better suited in handicap conditions.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – RIVER RUBICON WIN

RACE 2

SPIN THE KNIFE is a serious talent and breaks their hearts in running. Going through his five career wins (including the one where he was later disqualified) the first 600m have been: 5L faster than Class average, 2L faster, 1L faster, 3L faster and 4L faster. He is just a free rolling, high cruising speed sprinter who takes his opposition out of their comfort zone and kicks away on the corner. Always hard to run down and perfect use of Holly Watson’s 3kg claim. PINK CARATS will no doubt attempt to stalk him. Pat Carbery and Simon Miller are both very race savvy in their decision making and tactics so expecting that they’ll ride him to tow ball Spin The Knife. Logical danger. EXPRESS TIME is going super but has quickly shot up in the ratings. SASSY TRADER might have to breeze outside Spin The Knife. That’s a tough spot.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet – SPIN THE KNIFE WIN

RACE 3

GALLANT RANGER has been a representation of Michael Lane’s yard over the last few months: back in form. Won a lowly 52+ first-up, reproduced second-up in a C3 and then has run well in back to back Westspeed Platinum races at 1300 and 1400m. Drawn a gate to track up in behind them and the way he’s racing he’ll travel well throughout and has a turn of acceleration that he didn’t seem to have in previous campaigns. Hard to fault. GOLD MERITS was the eye-catching run in the same race last start. With the senior going on she concedes 2kg to Gallant Ranger and will also concede her a head start in running. SUNSPHERE can park up in behind the speed and that looks a great spot with Native Chimes and Sea Waif likely to run. NATIVE CHIMES comes out running and can do it at both ends.

Numbers: 8 – 7 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – GALLANT RANGER EACHWAY

RACE 4

TRADEM’ IN was put into the race last start before the corner and swept past the leaders before hitting a brick wall in the final furlong and fading back into fourth. Might be evidence that he needed the run at the trip and it should put in in a great position to rebound and score here. Was 1300 to 1600 that day and with the extra fitness in his legs he should go close in this at an eachway quote. Stable and jockey in form. NATIONAL GUARD hasn’t been seen for 61 days since his eye catching WA debut. On a heavily leader dominated program he launched late from a mile off them and went into every blackbook in the state. KARLI’S KARMA has a big turn of foot and a real X-Factor about her. Love the way she’s progressing. CRESCENT CITY might find himself in front by default in a race with absolutely no speed.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet – TRADEM’ IN EACHWAY

RACE 5

AMELIA’S JEWEL looked serious sharp at trials and got trial watchers excited for her debut. Drawn sticky over the 1000m and will need a peach from Carbery but she looks like she’ll make a splash on debut. Heavily commissioned in pre-post markets and kept very, very safe in All-In Karrakatta Plate markets. Siding up with her on debut but think she’ll go round under the odds. Punter beware. SENTIMENTAL BELLE only had the one public appearance and she showed an impressive turn of foot when skipping right away from them late under a hold from Pike. COSTUME PARTY has race experience and Luke Fernie’s 2 year olds have been at the forefront all season to date. Second to Revitup, second to Sheeza Belter. Looks the best of the raced brigade. FIORUCCI MAMA looks a fool proof jump and run juvenile.

Numbers: 7 – 8 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – AMELIA’S JEWEL WIN

RACE 6

HOW’S THE SERENITY was nothing short of enormous first-up when planted deep the trip. Split Cristal Dane and Secret Deploy, with that pair finishing first and third in another 60+ Graduation since. Stays in the same grade, drops 2kg and loves the Ascot 1200m. The barrier is the obvious concern being drawn in 11 of 11 in a race with a level of speed (Champagne Dame, Spirited Session, Yeman Lass) but if Holly Watson gets across to the breeze she looks hard to beat. REAL DANGER looks the real danger on paper. Sat three deep the trip chasing Spin The Knife first-up in a 3 year old Plate. Gets a far better run here and has a turn of foot. SPIRITED SESSION is getting better with racing. WEDNESDAY is never far from the action.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet – HOW’S THE SERENITY WIN

RACE 7

CLAIRVOYANCE attracted nationwide attention after her blistering galloping exhibition in the Pinjarra Classic. Broke the track record and was eased down in the concluding stages. She returned a WFA Performance Rating which put her right at the top of Australia’s performers for that weekend and for fillies and mares in the season to date. She’ll be the one that the big money players target and she’ll be looking to lead and win again. You’ll know at the 600 when she starts to sneak away how the rest of them are handling the pressure. HOT ZED is one who can absorb pressure and when he’s back at Ascot he’s a live chance in everything he contests. COMING AROUND has put in two massive runs back in WA and gets 3kg on Clairvoyance. THE SPRUIKER ran home in 33:33 in the Pinjarra Classic. Forget the beaten margin, that’s flying.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet – CLAIRVOYANCE WIN

RACE 8

MAROCCHINO is such an honest campaigner. His run in the Pinjarra Mile from the breeze was strong and from that race he gets 2kg on Utgard Loki and True Attraction. Brave in the Detonator when wide and working throughout and gets 2kg on True Attraction/Neufbosc and 3.5kg on Platoon/Paddy’s Shadow. Maps well, well weighted and rarely runs a bad race. Eachway proposition in everything he contests. STAFFORD’S LAD drops 9kg and backs up off 7 days. Thought he was huge last week when looking like he had something to offer under the enormous weight. His ATA win stacks up for this. UTGARD LOKI sneaks under the radar. Going well again and can park just behind the speed. TRUE ATTRACTION let rip in the Detonator. Reproduces the run and goes very close.

Numbers: 5 – 12 – 14 – 3

Suggested Bet – MAROCCHINO EACHWAY

RACE 9

PHONEME might only be coming from a lowly midweek but he looks back to somewhere near his best. He is a previous 66+ winner and has been placed on three occasions in 72+ races since arriving in WA. Looks to be genuine speed through Scooter’s Machine and that will allow him to settle off them and work into the race late. His best is definitely good enough. DOWNFORCE has been a hard horse to catch and a hard horse to follow throughout his career. Let down powerfully last start to score. Losing Laqdar Ramoly might be a bigger thing than many realise. BRAGWELL looks well placed and sneaks in perfectly on the minimum. SCOOTER’S MACHINE should march along and give a kick.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet – PHONEME WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,7
2,3,4,7
1,2,3,4,5,10,12,14
2,4,9

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